The share of North American oil and gas “Thousand Club” wells rose to 48%, with shale technology progress nearing a "more-than-halfway" inflection point

Overview

This report focuses on North American “Thousand Club” oil and gas wells in 2025, defined as high-productivity wells with peak production above 1,000 boepd. Bernstein argues that such wells represent resource targets with stronger economic attractiveness, and that basins, reservoirs, and listed E&P companies with large numbers of these wells are more likely to have investment appeal. The report shows that the share of Thousand Club wells among all wells continued rising to 48%, approaching half, reflecting ongoing improvements in technology, operating efficiency, and capital discipline.

Core views

The core views are: first, the share of high-productivity wells in the North American shale industry has risen from about 5% in the early shale era to nearly 50%, showing that the long-term technological revolution is still advancing; second, high-quality resources remain concentrated in Texas, New Mexico, Alberta, North Dakota, and core basins such as the Permian, Appalachian, and Williston; third, new resource discovery remains difficult, with some quality wells appearing in Canada’s Montney and Duvernay, but still in limited numbers; fourth, listed E&P companies drilled about 76% of Thousand Club oil wells, with leading companies such as XOM, EOG, and COP standing out in resource quality; fifth, more than 50 listed companies are still drilling in similar basins and reservoirs, and together with shareholder return demands, basin-level and corporate-level synergies may continue to drive consolidation.

Analysis framework

The report starts from well-level production data, screening North American oil and gas wells with peak production above 1,000 boepd in 2025 and at the end of 2024, then breaking them down by state, province, basin, reservoir, and operator. The analysis also compares total Thousand Club wells, oil-weighted Thousand Club wells, operator count rankings, combined quality-and-quantity indicators, and year-over-year changes to assess resource quality, technological progress, and relative corporate advantages.

Methodology notes

• Resource Quality ScreeningThousand Club Well Screening

  North American oil and gas wells with peak production above 1,000 boepd

  The report defines wells with peak daily production above 1,000 barrels of oil equivalent as the “Thousand Club,” using this as an empirical threshold to distinguish elite resources from ordinary resources.

• Operator Comparisonpower metric

  An operator metric combining quality and quantity

  The report uses the “power metric” to measure operators’ overall performance in both the number and quality of high-quality wells, with EOG ranking first on this metric, XOM second, and COP third.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• XOM

  Leading operator and Outperform-rated name

  Strengths

  Ranks first in the report’s operator count ranking, with 709 Thousand Club wells.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not provide detailed financial forecasts or a target price for the individual company.

  Comparison

  EOG ranks first on the power metric, while XOM ranks second on that metric.

  Risks

  Oil prices, gas prices, costs, resource decline, and regulatory risks may affect the economics of high-productivity wells.

• EOG

  High-quality resource operator and Market-Perform-rated name

  Strengths

  Ranks first in the report’s power metric, showing an advantage in combined quality and quantity.

  Weaknesses

  It is rated Market-Perform, and the disclosures mention that Bernstein-related parties hold positions or have conflict-of-interest disclosures.

  Comparison

  XOM leads in operator count, while EOG leads on the composite quality metric.

  Risks

  Valuation, commodity prices, and the pace of resource development may limit relative performance.

• COP

  Leading operator and Outperform-rated name

  Strengths

  Ranks third among operators and also places third on the power metric.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not disclose an independent target price or specific upside potential.

  Comparison

  Ranks behind XOM and EOG, but still remains in the top tier.

  Risks

  Sustainability of high-productivity well inventory, cost inflation, and M&A integration risk.

• Permian

  Core basin and dominant region for oil-weighted high-productivity wells

  Strengths

  Reservoirs such as Spraberry Trend, Wolfcamp, and Bone Spring lead in the share of oil-weighted Thousand Club wells.

  Weaknesses

  Competition in mature core areas is intense, and high-quality inventory may become scarcer.

  Comparison

  Compared with emerging areas such as Montney and Duvernay, the Permian has larger-scale and more certain high-productivity oil wells.

  Risks

  Service costs, pipeline capacity, land constraints, and regulation may affect development returns.

Key data

• Share of Thousand Club wells48%Of roughly 19,274 wells in 2025, about 48% achieved or exceeded peak production of 1,000 boepd.
• Historical change in the share of Thousand Club wells5% in 2013, 48% in 2025The report views this as evidence of long-term improvement in shale technology and operating efficiency.
• Number of oil-weighted Thousand Club wellsAbout 7,000 wellsThere were 4,130 in 2024, implying year-over-year growth of about 69% in 2025.
• 2025 Thousand Club state/province distributionTX 40%, NM 20%, AB 7%, ND 6%Texas, New Mexico, Alberta, and North Dakota together accounted for more than two-thirds.
• 2025 oil-weighted Thousand Club state/province distributionTX 45%, NM 24%, ND 8%, AB 6%, CO 4%Texas and New Mexico dominate oil-weighted high-productivity wells.
• Main reservoirs for oil-weighted Thousand Club wellsSpraberry Trend 21%, Wolfcamp 19%, Bone Spring 18%Permian-related reservoirs are dominant.
• Concentration of leading operatorsTop 7 operators about 41%The top seven operators drilled about 3,600 Thousand Club wells in 2025.
• Marcellus changeDeclined from 583 wells to 489 wellsGas-related activity fell about 16% in 2025, which the report speculates may be due to new well curtailments caused by takeaway constraints.

Impact & implications

The investment implication is that the rising share of high-productivity wells indicates that per-unit resource quality and capital efficiency in North American shale continue to improve, but high-quality resources are becoming increasingly concentrated in mature core basins and leading operators. Companies with large numbers of Thousand Club wells, especially oil-weighted high-productivity wells, may have stronger advantages in capital returns, inventory quality, and M&A value. At the same time, the difficulty of discovering new resources, gas takeaway constraints, and the still-large number of companies in the industry imply that future excess returns may come more from resource endowment, execution, and industry consolidation rather than simply expanding drilling scale.

Risks

• The 1,000 boepd threshold is empirical and somewhat arbitrary, and cannot be directly equated with full-lifecycle economic returns.
• The report includes some wells from late 2024 to address reporting lags, so it differs from a strict calendar-year basis.
• Changes in gas prices, oil prices, service costs, and takeaway capacity will affect the actual economics of high-productivity wells.
• Gas plays such as the Marcellus may be affected by takeaway constraints, potentially suppressing new well production.
• New resource discovery remains difficult; while Montney and Duvernay have some high-quality wells, their numbers remain limited.
• Industry consolidation may bring synergies, but may also introduce acquisition premiums, integration execution risk, and asset quality risk.

What to watch

• Whether the share of Thousand Club wells exceeds 50% for the first time in 2026.
• Whether the number of oil-weighted 1k wells can sustain the high growth seen in 2025.
• Whether Permian-related reservoirs continue to lead in the share of oil-weighted high-productivity wells.
• Whether growth in oil-weighted high-productivity wells in regions such as Montney, Duvernay, Niobrara, and Anadarko is sustainable.
• Whether takeaway constraints in gas plays such as the Marcellus ease.
• The high-productivity well inventory, capital spending discipline, and M&A actions of leading operators such as XOM, EOG, and COP.