Low inventories are bringing forward the peak season, lifting container shipping in the short term; a reopening of Hormuz remains a tanker catalyst

Overview

This report uses high-frequency freight data to track supply-demand turning points across Asian and global transport chains. The core conclusion is that in container shipping, low inventories, early restocking driven by inflation concerns, fuel cost pass-through, slower vessel speeds, and port congestion are jointly creating upside risk for short-term spot freight rates; however, the U.S. NRF expects import container volumes to soften starting in August, and with new vessel deliveries resuming, freight rate pressure is likely to rise after the summer. For tankers, transit volumes related to the Strait of Hormuz conflict remain far below pre-war levels; in the short term, wait-and-see behavior by importers is suppressing tanker activity, but declining global crude inventories imply potential restocking demand once the strait reopens. In air cargo, Asia-Pacific chargeable weight and outbound freight rates from Shanghai Pudong remain strong, though declining jet fuel prices may limit further pricing upside.

Core views

First, the container shipping peak season may begin earlier than usual, mainly driven by early restocking by U.S. retailers amid low inventories and inflation concerns. Second, supply is not loose: high fuel prices are prompting vessels to slow down, while weather and surging container volumes are causing port congestion, both of which reduce effective capacity. Third, demand support may not be durable, as the U.S. NRF expects import container volumes to decline YoY from August, and new vessel deliveries after summer restocking will create downward pressure on freight rates. Fourth, the key variable for the tanker market is the Strait of Hormuz: current weak transit and delayed imports are suppressing rates, but lower inventories leave room for restocking and a rate rebound once the strait reopens.

Analysis framework

The report combines high-frequency data including port throughput, booking trends, SCFI spot freight rates, U.S. NRF import forecasts, inventory-to-sales ratios, port congestion, vessel speeds, container ship order deliveries, tanker transit volumes, seaborne crude inventories, refinery utilization rates, and air cargo chargeable weight to assess the impact of transport demand, effective capacity, and event catalysts on freight rates.

Methodology notes

• Industry high-frequency trackingChina Cargo Transport Tracker

  Identify imbalances and turning points in transport supply and demand through multidimensional high-frequency freight indicators.

  The report cross-validates indicators such as port throughput, route spot freight rates, bookings, congestion, and vessel speeds to judge short-term momentum in container freight rates.

• Supply-demand and effective capacity analysisDemand-supply and effective capacity

  Changes in demand and constraints on effective capacity jointly determine the direction of freight rates.

  On the demand side, the focus is on restocking, import container volumes, and consumer confidence; on the supply side, the focus is on vessel speeds, port congestion, and new vessel deliveries. Slower vessel speeds and congestion reduce effective capacity, while new vessel deliveries increase freight rate pressure after restocking ends.

• Inventory cycle analysisInventory-to-sales ratio and restocking cycle

  A low inventory-to-sales ratio may trigger retailer restocking and pull forward the transport peak season.

  The U.S. inventory-to-sales ratio has fallen to its lowest since April 2022; if consumption remains stable, restocking demand could still exceed the base-case expectation.

• Event catalyst analysisStrait of Hormuz reopening catalyst

  A recovery in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could alter tanker demand and the pace of crude restocking.

  After the conflict, tanker transit volumes were significantly below pre-war levels, and importers may delay purchases while waiting for oil prices to decline; if the strait reopens while inventories remain low, restocking could once again lift tanker transport demand.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Container shipping freight rates/SCFI

  Supported jointly by early restocking, fuel cost pass-through, slower vessel speeds, and port congestion.

  Strengths

  The low U.S. inventory-to-sales ratio, NRF upward revisions to May and June import forecasts, and YoY gains in SCFI on U.S. routes all support short-term strength.

  Weaknesses

  The NRF expects imports to turn negative from August, and total peak-season volume may still decline YoY.

  Comparison

  U.S. West Coast/East Coast routes are +5%/+3% YoY so far in 2Q26, reflecting stronger short-term conditions than implied by medium-term demand forecasts.

  Risks

  Weaker consumption, new vessel deliveries, an early end to restocking, and easing congestion could depress freight rates.

• Ports and inland logistics

  Port congestion and low Rhine water levels affect container turnover efficiency and alter regional freight rates.

  Strengths

  Congestion on the U.S. West Coast increased YoY, while congestion in Rotterdam rose against a backdrop of low Rhine water levels.

  Weaknesses

  Congestion on the U.S. East Coast declined YoY, indicating that congestion is not worsening globally in sync.

  Comparison

  During the 2022 low Rhine water period, Rotterdam congestion rose significantly versus the prior period, serving as a reference for a stress scenario.

  Risks

  Weather, water levels, and container volume fluctuations make congestion indicators unstable over short cycles.

• Tanker freight rates/VLCC TCE

  Transit through the Strait of Hormuz, crude inventories, and importer purchasing pace are the main drivers.

  Strengths

  Global crude inventories are about 3% below pre-war levels, and if the strait reopens, this could generate transport demand from restocking.

  Weaknesses

  Current import activity is conservative, seaborne crude volumes fell MoM in May 2026, and VLCC TCE has already declined from pre-war levels.

  Comparison

  In May 2026, crude tanker and product tanker transit through Hormuz remained 97% and 95% below pre-war levels, respectively.

  Risks

  Continued geopolitical conflict, changes in oil price expectations, further importer purchase delays, or weaker-than-expected inventory replenishment.

• Air cargo

  Asia-Pacific chargeable weight and outbound freight rates from Shanghai Pudong indicate strong short-term demand.

  Strengths

  In mid-May 2026, Asia-Pacific chargeable weight rose 11% WoW, and the Shanghai Pudong outbound index rose 33% YoY.

  Weaknesses

  Jet fuel prices have retreated from their highs, reducing the scope for further price increases driven by fuel surcharges.

  Comparison

  Strength in air cargo, together with early restocking in containers, suggests some cross-border transport demand has been pulled forward.

  Risks

  Falling fuel prices, the end of demand catch-up, or recovery in alternative transport modes may limit further freight-rate upside.

Key data

• Report date2026-06-02 8:30AM HKTThe report type is Goldman Sachs Equity Research, focused on high-frequency tracking of Asian transportation and freight.
• China port container throughput+8% YoY in 1Q26; weekly throughput at major ports in Apr-May 2026 approximately +4% YoYThis shows overall growth is still being maintained at Chinese ports.
• China-to-U.S. container volume-15% YoY in April 2026This was weaker than the -5% YoY performance of total U.S. import containers, consistent with forward booking trends.
• SCFI spot freight rates on U.S. routesAs of May 29, 2026, the average for U.S. West Coast/East Coast routes is +5%/+3% YoY so far in 2Q26The report attributes this to early restocking and fuel cost pass-through.
• U.S. inventory-to-sales ratio1.32xAs of end-March 2026, this was the lowest since April 2022 and is an important basis for the upside restocking risk.
• U.S. NRF import forecast+11%/+8% YoY in May/June 2026; expected -8% YoY starting in AugustThe May/June forecasts were revised up from the previous +7%/+7%, but the post-August outlook still reflects pressure from inflation and weakening consumer confidence.
• Peak-season total import volume forecast-2% YoYThe U.S. NRF expects total peak-season imports to decline YoY, suggesting that short-term strength may not represent full-year demand expansion.
• U.S. port congestion7-day average daily number of vessels staying more than 3 days in May 2026: East Coast -12% YoY, West Coast +14% YoYCompiled by GS DataWorks, indicating regional divergence in congestion pressure.
• European congestion and Rhine River water levelsContainer ship capacity waiting at the Port of Rotterdam in May 2026 rose by mid-single digits versus AprilLow Rhine water levels are limiting fully loaded navigation and may create upside risk for European freight rates; during a similar low-water period in 2022, congestion rose significantly.
• Container ship speed and effective capacityEffective capacity in May 2026 declined by about 1% versus the pre-war level in February 2026Ships slowed down to save fuel consumption under high fuel prices; COSCO Shipping Holding management had previously guided to about a 2% reduction in effective capacity.
• Container ship deliveriesNew vessel deliveries in the remaining months of 2026 are about 0.5% of existing capacity per month; the 2026 average is about 0.4% per month, below about 0.6% per month in 2025A recovery in deliveries may put downward pressure on freight rates after seasonal summer restocking.
• Tanker transit through the Strait of HormuzIn May 2026, average daily crude tanker/product tanker transit volumes were 97%/95% below the pre-war level in February 2026Although slightly improved from the trough, they remain far below pre-war levels and are a key event variable for the tanker market.
• VLCC TCE and spot tanker freight ratesVLCC TCE is down about 38% from pre-war levels; recent spot rates are about US$90-100kThe report believes import activity is more conservative, possibly because importers are waiting for oil prices to fall after Hormuz reopens.
• Seaborne crude and product volumesIn May 2026, seaborne crude/product volumes were -15%/-16% YoY, with crude down -5% MoMThis worsened further from -9%/-13% YoY in April 2026.
• Global crude inventoriesAs of end-May 2026, about 3% below the pre-war level in February 2026Among them, the U.S./India were about 4%/10% lower, while China/OECD Europe were about 1%/3% higher; low inventories support the possibility of restocking after reopening.
• Utilization rate of China state-owned refineries67%This is 15 percentage points below end-February 2026 and at a low since 2022, reflecting weak demand on the Chinese refining side.
• Asia-Pacific air cargoAsia-Pacific chargeable weight on May 11-17, 2026 was +11% WoW; as of May 25, the Shanghai Pudong outbound cargo index was +2% WoW and +33% YoYAir cargo remains strong, but Singapore jet fuel prices have fallen from about US$240/bbl in late March to about US$130/bbl, which may limit further price increases.

Impact & implications

In the short term, early restocking, low inventories, fuel costs, and congestion are supportive for container spot freight rates and related shipping chains; however, if U.S. import demand starts to decline from July-August and new vessel deliveries continue to come through, freight rates may come under pressure after the summer. The tanker chain depends more on the geopolitical event path: a reopening of Hormuz could release delayed import and restocking demand, but if reopening is delayed or oil price expectations change, freight rates may remain volatile. For investors, this report is more suitable as a tracker of transportation sector conditions and freight-rate turning points rather than as a basis for stock ratings.

Risks

• A slowdown in U.S. consumption, inflation pressure, and weakening consumer confidence could cause restocking demand to end early.
• The U.S. NRF expects import container volumes to decline YoY from August, and total peak-season imports may still be -2% YoY.
• Container newbuilding deliveries will increase in the remaining months of 2026, potentially adding supply pressure after summer restocking.
• Port congestion, vessel speeds, and weather factors are volatile in the short term; if congestion eases, support for spot freight rates will weaken.
• The timing of a Strait of Hormuz reopening and the geopolitical situation remain uncertain, and tanker demand may be delayed or fluctuate sharply.
• Shipping data such as CRSL involve estimation and methodology differences, and some statistics require validation with subsequent data.

What to watch

• Whether the U.S. NRF continues to revise down or up its forecasts for import container volumes in July-August 2026 and beyond.
• Whether the U.S. inventory-to-sales ratio, retail sales, and consumer confidence support further restocking.
• Changes in spot freight rates on SCFI U.S. West Coast/East Coast and European routes, fuel prices, and average vessel speeds.
• Port congestion indicators in the U.S., Europe, Southeast Asia, and China, as well as changes in Rhine River water levels.
• Tanker transit volumes through the Strait of Hormuz, global crude inventories, importer purchasing pace, and China refinery utilization rates.
• Asia-Pacific air cargo chargeable weight, the Shanghai Pudong outbound freight rate index, and Singapore jet fuel prices.