Beijing humanoid robot half marathon results improved significantly, reinforcing the catalyst logic for China's humanoid robot supply chain

Overview

This report comments on the Beijing humanoid robot half marathon on April 19, 2026. Compared with the inaugural event in 2025, participation expanded to more than 300 robots and 100 teams this year, with 114 robots finishing. The report argues that what truly matters is not just the improvement in speed, but also the gains in autonomous operation and hardware durability, and that these advances reinforce the medium- to long-term investment catalyst for the humanoid robot supply chain.

Core views

The core view of the report is that the Beijing half marathon results fit Morgan Stanley's previously stated catalyst-driven bull-case investment logic. Eight autonomous humanoid robots beat the human half marathon world record, Honor robots swept the top three places, and Tiangong Ultra and Tencent Robotics X also ranked near the front. The share of autonomous robots rose to about 38%, and the number of single-robot finishers increased, indicating that key capabilities in motion, perception, navigation, energy, and thermal management are iterating. The report expects China's humanoid robot value chain to benefit from positive sentiment and continues to prefer leading component suppliers.

Analysis framework

The report uses an event commentary and catalyst-validation framework, comparing this event with the previous edition, the world record, and robot finishing rates, and then mapping the results to the investment logic of relevant component companies and covered names. At the company level, it evaluates the value of humanoid robot businesses for targets such as Shenzhen Inovance Technology, Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd, and Leader Harmonious Drive Systems using valuation methods including P/E, P/S, and DCF.

Methodology notes

• Event catalyst analysisCatalyst Event Reaction

  Use real race results to validate the supply chain investment thesis

  The report treats the humanoid robot half marathon as an observable catalyst event, focusing on speed, number of finishers, autonomous share, and durability, and judges the event's impact on the investment thesis of related companies as Strengthens.

• Relative valuationP/E and P/S valuation

  Value the core business and the humanoid robot business separately

  Shenzhen Inovance Technology's valuation includes applying 35x 2026e P/E to its core business, valuing the NEV powertrain business based on market capitalization and shareholding ratio, and applying 5x P/S to the related business when global humanoid robot sales reach 1 million units.

• Discounted cash flowDCF

  Discount long-term cash flows of humanoid robot components

  The humanoid robot component businesses of Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd and Leader Harmonious Drive Systems are valued using 2025-50e DCF cash flows, with WACC at 11% and terminal growth at 4%.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Leader Harmonious Drive Systems (688017.SS)

  A target related to humanoid robot harmonic reducers and transmission components; the report rates the event impact as Strengthens.

  Strengths

  The report favors it as a leading component supplier; derives a per-share value of Rmb269 based on DCF; and sees potential benefits from humanoid robot penetration and entry into integrator supply chains.

  Weaknesses

  The business is affected by industrial robot demand and manufacturing capex, and the harmonic reducer technology route faces substitution risk.

  Comparison

  Compared with complete-machine manufacturers, component suppliers may benefit more directly from supply chain expansion; its investment case is highly correlated with the pace of humanoid robot adoption.

  Risks

  China manufacturing capex coming in below expectations, humanoid robot development progressing more slowly than expected, and harmonic reducers no longer being the mainstream solution.

• Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd (601100.SS)

  A target related to hydraulics and robot components; the report rates the event impact as Strengthens.

  Strengths

  The report gives a target price of Rmb133; values the core business using 35x 2026e P/E and the humanoid robot component business using DCF; and sees potential benefits from humanoid robot penetration and greater supply chain share.

  Weaknesses

  Demand for traditional excavators and pumps/valves still affects fundamentals, and there is uncertainty around share gains in non-excavator components.

  Comparison

  Compared with pure theme plays, Hengli is affected by both the traditional construction machinery cycle and incremental humanoid robot business.

  Risks

  A sharp decline in China excavator and pump/valve demand, failure to expand share in non-excavator components, and slower-than-expected humanoid robot penetration.

• Shenzhen Inovance Technology (300124.SZ)

  A target related to industrial automation, NEV powertrain, and humanoid robot businesses; the report rates the event impact as Strengthens.

  Strengths

  Core business valuation references 35x 2026e P/E; NEV powertrain is valued based on market capitalization and an 83% stake; and the humanoid robot business uses 5x P/S under a scenario where global sales reach 1 million units.

  Weaknesses

  Demand for automation products, price competition in low-end products, and raw material costs can affect earnings quality.

  Comparison

  Compared with single robot-component targets, Inovance also has exposure to automation and NEV powertrain, making its humanoid robot business more like an additional growth option.

  Risks

  Failure to develop high-end automation products, declining ASP for low-end products due to competition, and raw material price increases causing a larger-than-expected decline in gross margin.

• Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co. Ltd. (002472.SZ)

  One of the leading humanoid robot component suppliers favored in the report.

  Strengths

  Included in the report's explicitly favored supply chain list and may benefit from improving sentiment toward China's humanoid robot value chain.

  Weaknesses

  This report does not disclose detailed valuation, target price, or company-specific risks.

  Comparison

  Presented in the report alongside Leaderdrive, Hengli, and Inovance as priority component suppliers to watch.

  Risks

  Humanoid robot industrialization progressing more slowly than expected and supply chain share falling short of expectations.

Key data

• Participation scale300+ humanoid robots; 100 teamsThe participation scale was about 5 times that of the inaugural event in 2025.
• Number of finishers114 robots finishedThis shows improved hardware reliability and race completion capability.
• Performance of autonomous robots8 autonomous humanoid robots beat 57:20Eight autonomous robots beat the human half marathon world record of 57:20.
• Winning time50:26Honor "Lightning" won, significantly faster than the previous champion Tiangong Ultra's 2:40:42.
• Autonomous share~38%The report believes this reflects improvements in motion control, perception and navigation, energy management, and thermal stability.
• Single-robot completion107 robot modelsA large number of participating models completed the race with a single robot, highlighting improved hardware durability.
• Event impactStrengthens; modest upside surpriseBoth the catalyst assessment and expectations comparison for Leader Harmonious Drive Systems, Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd, and Shenzhen Inovance Technology are positive.
• Key preferencesLeaderdrive, Hengli, Shuanghuan, InovanceThe report explicitly prefers leading component suppliers.

Impact & implications

The main investment implication of this event is that it validates the humanoid robot supply chain's transition from concept to observable iteration: faster speeds demonstrate progress in control and mechanical systems, a higher autonomous share reflects stronger perception and navigation capabilities, and better finishing rates and thermal management performance support the durability thesis for components. In the short term, this may boost sentiment around China's humanoid robot theme, with a more favorable structural impact on companies already in the supply chain or possessing core component capabilities.

Risks

• Humanoid robot commercialization and penetration may be slower than expected.
• China manufacturing capex or industrial robot demand may come in below expectations.
• Technology routes for key components may change, for example harmonic reducers may no longer be the mainstream solution.
• Intensifying competition in automation products may lead to ASP declines.
• Raw material price increases may cause a larger-than-expected decline in gross margin.
• Weakening cyclical demand for traditional excavators, pumps/valves, and similar products may drag on related companies' fundamentals.
• Supply chain entry progress or market share gains may fall short of expectations.

What to watch

• In subsequent humanoid robot races or demonstrations, whether the share of autonomous operation, finishing rate, and continuous operating time continue to improve.
• The supply chain choices and mass-production pace of complete-machine players such as Honor, Tiangong Ultra, and Tencent Robotics X.
• Whether component companies such as Leaderdrive, Hengli, Shuanghuan, and Inovance secure more humanoid robot customers or orders.
• The iteration speed of key hardware areas such as thermal management, motors, joints, structural parts, and liquid-cooling components.
• Whether global humanoid robot sales can approach the 1 million unit scenario mentioned in the report's valuation.
• Whether subsequent ratings, target prices, and earnings forecasts for covered names are further adjusted due to industry catalysts.