4Q25 results in line with expectations; focus on ramp-up in humanoid robotics and ADAS projects

Overview

This report is Morgan Stanley's 4Q25 earnings review of Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp (600699.SS). The report says the company's 4Q25 profit was broadly in line with guidance, with revenue growing year over year on new project launches and stronger order performance; however, given the current valuation versus the target price, the investment rating remains Equal-weight.

Core views

Key views include: first, 4Q25 results were in line with expectations, with net profit of Rmb216mn and full-year net profit of Rmb1,336mn; second, new project launches supported revenue growth, with 4Q25 revenue up 4% year over year to Rmb15.3bn and new orders also rising sharply; third, gross margin was broadly stable, and improved operating efficiency lifted operating margin year over year; fourth, future catalysts are concentrated in humanoid robotics projects, ADAS/autonomous driving projects, and overseas restructuring progress.

Analysis framework

The report uses a framework that combines earnings comparison, order changes, margin decomposition, and valuation methods. On the operating side, it compares 4Q25 revenue, gross profit, operating profit, and net profit with 4Q24, 3Q25, and FY24 on a year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter basis; on valuation, it uses DCF and incorporates Morgan Stanley ModelWare and Refinitiv consensus estimates.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsDCF

  Discounted cash flow valuation

  The report's base case comes from DCF valuation, with key assumptions including a 12.0% WACC, 14.5% cost of equity, 6.3% cost of debt, a 5% mid-cycle growth rate, and a 3% terminal growth rate.

• Data sourceMorgan Stanley ModelWare

  Institutional model data

  Unless otherwise noted, the report's metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare.

• Consensus expectationsRefinitiv Estimates

  Market consensus expectations

  Data labeled Consensus is provided by Refinitiv Estimates and is used to compare against company results and Morgan Stanley estimates.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp (600699.SS)

  Covered company in the report

  Strengths

  4Q25 revenue growth outpaced global auto production growth, new orders grew strongly year over year, and global order progress in automotive electronics and safety systems was solid.

  Weaknesses

  4Q25 net profit fell 48% quarter over quarter, gross margin weakened quarter over quarter, and overseas restructuring still needs to be monitored.

  Comparison

  4Q25 revenue rose 4% year over year, above IHS's roughly 1.5% year-over-year growth in global auto production.

  Risks

  Integration costs in the automotive safety business may exceed expectations, order share may be lost during the restructuring period, and project ramp-up may fall short of expectations.

• Automotive electronics and safety systems business

  Core business driver

  Strengths

  New project launches and global order wins support revenue and order growth.

  Weaknesses

  Integration efficiency and expense control remain important variables for margins.

  Comparison

  Operating margin improved by 3.2 percentage points year over year, reflecting efficiency gains and base effects.

  Risks

  If integration progresses more slowly than expected or costs are higher than expected, margins could come under pressure.

• Humanoid robotics and ADAS projects

  Potential growth catalyst

  Strengths

  The report highlights order wins, mass-production progress, and breakthroughs in autonomous driving projects as key areas of focus.

  Weaknesses

  Current disclosures remain more about progress tracking and have not yet quantified contributions to revenue and profit.

  Comparison

  Compared with traditional auto parts businesses, these projects may offer a stronger growth narrative.

  Risks

  Order wins, mass-production pace, or commercialization scale may fall short of expectations.

Key data

• 4Q25 revenueRmb15.3bnUp 4% year over year and down 1% quarter over quarter.
• 4Q25 net profitRmb216mnLifted FY25 full-year net profit to Rmb1,336mn.
• FY25 revenueRmb61,183mnUp 10% year over year.
• FY25 net profitRmb1,336mnUp 39% year over year.
• 4Q25 new ordersRmb25.6bnUp 90% year over year.
• 2025 new ordersRmb97bnUp 16% year over year.
• 4Q25 gross margin18.3%Up 0.2 percentage points year over year and down about 0.4 percentage points quarter over quarter.
• 4Q25 operating margin5.4%Up 3.2 percentage points year over year and down 0.2 percentage points quarter over quarter.
• Target priceRmb25.00Based on DCF valuation.
• Closing priceRmb25.52As of March 30, 2026.

Impact & implications

The report's view on the company's fundamentals is essentially unchanged, as 4Q25 financial results were in line with expectations. Order growth and new project launches reinforce medium-term revenue visibility, and humanoid robotics and ADAS projects may become the next valuation focus points; however, the target price is below the current share price, indicating that Morgan Stanley remains neutral on the short-term risk-reward profile.

Risks

• Faster-than-expected integration of the automotive safety business could create upside risk.
• Solid progress in global order wins for automotive electronics and safety systems could create upside risk.
• Integration costs in the automotive safety business may be higher than expected and show up in operating expenses.
• If new order share shifts to Autoliv or TRW during the restructuring period, this could pose downside risk.
• A slower-than-expected ramp-up in humanoid robotics-related projects and ADAS projects could weaken the growth catalyst.

What to watch

• Updates on overseas restructuring progress at the April 1, 2026 earnings briefing.
• New order wins and mass-production timelines for humanoid robotics-related projects.
• Breakthroughs in ADAS and autonomous driving projects.
• Whether new order growth can continue to translate into revenue and profit.
• Improvement trends in gross margin and operating expense ratio after restructuring.