Pre-618 Consumption Divergence: Pet Food Leads Gains; Beauty and White Goods Under Pressure

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs’ monthly update on online consumer brand performance in China, covering data from April through May 26, 2026. Its core conclusion is that China’s online consumer market displayed pronounced structural divergence ahead of the '618' shopping festival. Categories including pet food, health supplements, and women’s apparel sustained double-digit growth, while beauty, infant milk formula (IMF), and major appliances faced substantial year-on-year sales pressure. By channel, Douyin continued serving as the core growth driver for high-growth categories like beauty, whereas traditional shelf-based e-commerce platforms Tmall/Taobao remained under pressure. The report provides a detailed breakdown of top performers across sub-sectors, offering investors critical data to assess stock-specific alpha opportunities.

Core views

Category-level performance diverged sharply—necessity-driven and interest-driven consumption exhibited contrasting trends. Based on combined Tmall, Taobao, and JD.com data for April, health supplements, pet food, women’s apparel, sportswear, and dairy products posted year-on-year growth of 11%, 10%, 9%, 6%, and 6%, respectively. Conversely, athletic footwear, small appliances, beer, white goods, infant formula, and beauty declined by -5%, -4%, -13%, -22%, -14%, and -23%, respectively. Notably, due to the data provider’s re-benchmarking of pet food, white goods, and dairy data for January–April 2025, year-on-year comparisons are now more comparable. Channel transformation in beauty intensified, with leading domestic players strengthening their dominance. Online beauty GMV grew 2% year-on-year in April, moderating from 6% in Q1. By platform, Douyin surged 21% year-on-year—the primary growth engine—while Tmall/Taobao plunged 27% and JD.com declined 7%. Among brands, domestic leaders Shanghai Jahwa (+53%), MAOGEPING (+36%), and Forest Oxygen Bar (+23%) performed strongest, driven largely by contributions from Douyin or JD.com; meanwhile, Proya (-18%), Gensheng Bio (-16%), Shanghai Shangmei (-21%), Yatsen (-29%), and Huaxi Biotech (-13%) posted declines. Among foreign brands, Estée Lauder (+4%) and L’Oréal (+3%) maintained growth supported by Douyin, whereas Shiseido (-8%), LG Household & Health Care (-50%), Amorepacific (-29%), and Kose (-27%) faced significant pressure. The pet food sector sustained high momentum, with domestic brands accelerating their breakthrough. Domestic pet food brands covered in our tracking accelerated to +36% year-on-year in April (up from +22% in Q1); global brands also rebounded to 20% growth. Zhongchong Shares led with +64% year-on-year growth, powered by strong performances from its Wanpy, Toptrees, and Zeal brands; Guibao Pet returned to +12% growth; and Petco’s Meatyway brand grew 33%. Royal Canin delivered standout performance across both Tmall and Douyin, posting overall year-on-year growth of 78%. Sportswear growth moderated amid adverse weather and Spring Festival over-spending, though select brands showed resilience. April’s sportswear growth generally moderated versus Q1, primarily due to unfavorable weather and post-Spring Festival demand exhaustion. Premium outdoor brands—including Arc’teryx, Salomon, and Lululemon—experienced sharper deceleration due to high base effects. In contrast, Adidas, Fila, Puma, Xtep, ASICS, and On demonstrated relative resilience. The report also cautions that brands are executing omnichannel strategies—including emerging online channels like Dewu and offline retail—and single-platform data may not fully reflect actual growth. Infant formula and durable consumer goods remain under pressure. Online infant formula sales declined 14% year-on-year in April; Feihe dropped 47% year-on-year due to high base effects, and Yili declined 21%; among foreign brands, A2 (+27%) and Biostime (+68%) posted robust growth. Leading white goods firms underperformed the sector average; Tmall+Taobao sales fell over 30% year-on-year, with only Little Swan and Hisense Home Appliances posting smaller declines. Within cleaning appliances, Roborock and Ecovacs outperformed the sector, while Tineco declined ~40% year-on-year.

Analysis framework

Goldman Sachs employs a high-frequency online sales tracking methodology, collecting GMV (Gross Merchandise Value) data from major e-commerce platforms—including Tmall, Taobao, JD.com, and Douyin—via web crawlers. Its analytical logic follows a 'top-down' approach: first examining year-on-year changes at the macro-consumer-category level to identify high- and low-momentum sectors; second, drilling down into brand-level performance to compare domestic versus multinational companies and analyze growth drivers through channel structure (e.g., Douyin vs. Tmall); and third, attributing short-term fluctuations to seasonal factors—including timing of the 618 festival, Spring Festival carryover effects, and weather impacts. This methodology enables timely detection of marginal shifts in consumer preferences and brand market share dynamics, providing high-frequency validation for near-term corporate earnings assessments.

Methodology notes

• Industry/Sector Analysis FrameworkVolume-price decomposition

  GMV decomposition in online sales tracking

  The report decomposes platform-level GMV (transaction value) into changes in unit volume and average selling price (ASP) to determine whether brand growth stems from higher sales volumes or higher pricing—thereby assessing brand strength and promotional effectiveness.

• Industry/Sector Analysis Framework

  High-Frequency Alternative Data Tracking

  Real-time e-commerce sales data obtained via web crawling serves as a complement to traditional financial reporting, enabling more frequent and granular tracking of consumption trends and competitive positioning—especially useful for evaluating short-term marketing campaigns and promotional events.

• Event-Based Game Theory & Behavioral FinanceExpectation Gap / Expectation Management

  Front-loading of promotional events and base-effect analysis

  The report explicitly accounts for changes in the timing of the 618 festival launch (generally delayed this year) and year-ago base effects to interpret month-to-month volatility—helping investors distinguish short-term noise from long-term trends and avoid misreading single-month data.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Zhongchong Shares

  Benefited

  Strengths

  4Q YoY growth reached 64%; its Wanpy, Toptrees, and Zeal brands performed strongly

  Comparison

  Led domestic pet food brands, growing faster than Guibao Pet and Petco

• Shanghai Jahwa

  Benefited

  Strengths

  4Q GMV grew 53% YoY, the strongest among domestic beauty brands

  Comparison

  Growth far exceeded peers such as Proya and Gensheng Bio

• Guibao Pet

  Benefited

  Strengths

  Returned to positive 12% YoY growth in April; Myfoodie brand grew 8%

  Weaknesses

  Fregate brand performed negatively (-1%)

  Comparison

  Growth lagged Zhongchong Shares but outperformed some declining peers

• Feihe

  Adversely Affected

  Weaknesses

  4Q YoY sales declined 47%, significantly impacted by high base effects

  Comparison

  Underperformed Yili and most foreign peers

  Risks

  Declining birth rates and intensifying competition

• Proya

  Adversely Affected

  Weaknesses

  4Q YoY sales declined 18%, with both flagship and TIMAGE brands posting declines

  Comparison

  Underperformed domestic peers such as Shanghai Jahwa and MAOGEPING

Key data

• April Online Beauty GMV YoY-23%Widening from -6% in Q1; Tmall/Taobao down 27%, Douyin up 21%
• April Domestic Pet Food Brands YoY+36%Accelerating from +22% in Q1; Zhongchong Shares +64%, Guibao Pet +12%
• April Online Infant Formula Sales YoY-14%Feihe -47%, Yili -21%, A2 +27%, Biostime +68%
• Shanghai Jahwa April GMV YoY+53%Strongest performer among domestic beauty brands, driven mainly by Douyin or JD.com
• 618 Festival Launch TimingDouyin May 15, Tmall May 21Generally delayed versus last year; JD.com launched early on May 6

Impact & implications

The report concludes that current consumption divergence implies investors must selectively target stocks with demonstrable alpha-generating capabilities. In beauty, domestic leaders with strong product appeal and effective utilization of new channels like Douyin—such as Shanghai Jahwa and MAOGEPING—are well-positioned to continue gaining market share, whereas companies overly reliant on traditional shelf-based e-commerce and suffering from brand aging face mounting challenges. The sustained high momentum in pet food offers Zhongchong Shares, Guibao Pet, and other domestic leaders consistent earnings growth potential. For sportswear, although overall growth has moderated, brands with distinctive positioning or proven omnichannel execution—such as Fila and On—retain relative resilience. The delayed 618 launch may shift Q2 sales momentum later into the quarter; investors should monitor late-May to June sales data to assess the authenticity of the broader consumption recovery.

Risks

• Platform-level e-commerce data may differ from full-channel sales, potentially failing to fully reflect overall brand performance
• Delayed 618 launch timing could cause inter-quarter revenue recognition volatility
• Adverse weather and Spring Festival over-spending caused short-term demand disruption for categories such as sportswear
• Re-benchmarking of historical data by the data provider may affect year-on-year comparability

What to watch

• Actual sales performance following the 618 launch on Douyin (May 15) and Tmall (May 21)
• Changes in ROI (return on investment) and traffic cost trends for beauty brands on Douyin
• Market share shifts for domestic pet food brands amid the return to growth of global competitors
• New product sell-through dynamics for sportswear brands after inventory normalization