May Imports Strong YoY, June Forward Data Accelerating, Structural Opportunities Emerge in Transportation Sector

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs' US Tariff Impact High-Frequency Tracking Weekly Report (as of May 28, 2026), focusing on China-to-US freight flow, freight rates, and supply chain dynamics. Core conclusion: Despite weekly MoM fluctuations, import volumes maintain double-digit YoY growth, coupled with the "Liberation Day" low base effect, June forward import data accelerated significantly; the report believes current restocking behavior and supply chain adjustment logic hold, holds a structurally optimistic view on the transportation sector, upgrades trucking company ratings, and maintains a Buy view on parcel logistics leaders.

Core views

Import high-frequency data shows 'MoM fluctuation, strong YoY, forward acceleration' characteristics: May 22-28, China-to-US laden vessels +17% YoY (prev +28.5%), -13% WoW; TEUs +21% YoY (prev +32%), -16.5% WoW. But forward indicators are more positive—Los Angeles Port Week of June 5 planned TEUs +5% WoW, Week of June 12 +38% WoW, +46% YoY, report explicitly attributes this to "Liberation Day" low base effect and partial restocking behavior. Regional comparison shows divergence: Mainland China exports significant YoY (vessels +18%, TEUs +20%), while other Asian regions (Vietnam, Korea, Japan, etc.) growth weak (vessels +3%, TEUs -4.5%). Freight rates: China/East Asia to US West Coast ocean container rates +15% YoY, first positive turn since June 2025; West Coast trucking spot rates (excl. fuel) +25% YoY, load availability index +54% YoY. Inventory & Demand: April Logistics Managers Index shows Upstream (B2B) inventory expansion index rose to 57.9 (prev 51.7), Downstream (Retail) 53.3 (prev 62.5), reflecting restocking behavior transmitting from production to retail. Report also points out US manufacturing reshoring trend is clear (Apple, Nvidia, Pfizer announced expansion), coupled with "China+1/2" supply chain strategy推进，will support medium-to-long term domestic freight demand. Transportation Sector View: Based on recession probability lowered to 30% and consumer resilience enhanced, report upgrades trucking company ratings; maintains FedEx, UPS "Buy" ratings, emphasizing their fast cycle logistics capability and global network advantages in supply chain shift; freight forwarders (e.g., EXPD, CHRW) may benefit from customs clearance demand growth, but face ocean freight rate high base challenge (2025 same period boosted by Red Sea event).

Analysis framework

Report adopts 'High-Frequency Data + Forward Indicators + Multi-dimensional Cross-Validation' framework: captures short-term fluctuations with weekly vessel counts, TEUs, freight rates, etc., combines Port Optimizer and other forward data to predict trends; identifies structural changes by comparing Mainland China vs. other Asian regions export performance, upstream vs. downstream inventory indices; simultaneously links trade data with macro events ("Liberation Day", tariff policy nodes), corporate behavior (manufacturing investment, supply chain adjustment) for analysis, avoiding single data misjudgment. Report particularly emphasizes 'need to observe multi-week data trends', wary of weekly noise, and clearly distinguishes freight rate increase drivers (fuel cost pass-through vs. demand pull).

Methodology notes

• Industry/Industrial Analysis FrameworkSupply-demand framework

  Trade flow analysis tracks both supply side (vessels, capacity, port throughput) and demand side (import volume, inventory index)

  Report compares laden vessels (supply), TEUs (flow), inventory index (demand) change direction and magnitude, comprehensively judges whether supply chain is driven by supply disruption or real demand, e.g., points out current import growth accompanied by inventory expansion, supports restocking logic.

• Industry/Industrial Analysis FrameworkVolume-Price Split

  Splits trade data into quantity indicators (TEUs, vessels) and price indicators (freight rates) for separate analysis

  Report tracks freight volume YoY changes and freight rate trends separately, clearly distinguishes 'volume increase' (restocking demand) vs. 'price increase' (fuel cost pass-through), avoids simply equating freight rate increase with demand overheating.

• Cycle & Prosperity Framework

  Base Effect Analysis

  Report repeatedly emphasizes 'easy Liberation Day comps' ("Liberation Day" low base), reminds readers part of YoY high growth stems from abnormal low values same period last year, need to combine MoM and forward data to judge real trend, is key common sense for interpreting short-term trade data.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• FedEx Corp. (FDX)

  Benefits from supply chain shift and fast logistics demand

  Strengths

  Air freight capability, global network, fast cycle logistics

  Comparison

  Along with UPS as parcel logistics leaders, both received "Buy" ratings

  Risks

  Geopolitical conflict pushes up fuel costs, affecting profit margins

• United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS)

  Benefits from supply chain shift and fast logistics demand

  Strengths

  Global network, intermodal transport capability

  Comparison

  Similar positioning to FDX, both benefit from corporate supply chain adjustments

  Risks

  Same as above

• Expeditors Int'l of Washington (EXPD)

  May benefit from customs clearance demand growth, but faces freight rate high base pressure

  Strengths

  Freight forwarder professional capability

  Weaknesses

  Ocean freight rates YoY high base challenge

  Comparison

  Same category as CHRW freight forwarders, but rating is "Sell"

  Risks

  If import volume growth slows, customs clearance demand may weaken

• C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc. (CHRW)

  May benefit from customs clearance demand, but growth momentum limited

  Comparison

  Rating "Neutral", slightly better than EXPD

  Risks

  Industry competition intensifies

Key data

• China-to-US laden vessels (5/22-5/28)+17% YoY, -13% WoWYoY growth slowed compared to prev 28.5%, MoM declined for two consecutive weeks
• Los Angeles Port planned TEUs (Week of 6/12)+38% WoW, +46% YoYForward data accelerated significantly, report attributes to "Liberation Day" low base
• Ocean container freight rates (China/East Asia→US West Coast)+15% YoYFirst YoY positive turn in nearly 12 months, MoM flat
• West Coast trucking spot rates (excl. fuel)+25% YoYLoad availability index +54% YoY
• April Upstream (B2B) Inventory Index57.9Prev 51.7, expansion speed accelerated
• Mainland China vs. Other Asian Regions TEUs YoY+20% vs -4.5%Export growth highly concentrated in Mainland China

Impact & implications

Continued improvement in import data indicates that under tariff policy uncertainty, corporate restocking behavior has started, coupled with low base effect, short-term trade flow expected to remain active. For transportation sector, parcel logistics enterprises (FedEx, UPS) with fast response capability and global networks benefit more from supply chain diversification trend; trucking sector rating upgraded due to enhanced economic resilience; but freight forwarders and ocean carriers need to cope with high base and fuel cost pressure. Medium-to-long term, US manufacturing reshoring and "China+1/2" strategy will reshape logistics demand structure, benefiting domestic freight and intermodal transport.

Risks

• Trade policy uncertainty continues, affecting medium-to-long term freight planning (Sec. 122 Tariff 150 days later path unclear)
• Geopolitical conflict pushes up fuel costs, may suppress global freight demand, especially significant impact on US consumers
• Ocean freight rates face high base pressure (2025 same period boosted by Red Sea event), YoY data may be under pressure
• If consumer demand fails to recover as expected, transportation sector may face "demand window period" in second half of 2025

What to watch

• June actual import data, verify whether restocking behavior continues
• Actual pass-through degree of fuel prices and geopolitical events on freight rates
• US manufacturing reshoring project implementation progress (e.g., Apple, Nvidia investment)
• Corporate "China+1/2" supply chain strategy progress and impact on logistics models