TikTok Shop retains strong momentum, and J&T Express remains the core beneficiary of e-commerce logistics in Southeast Asia

Overview

This report is a summary of an expert call on TikTok Shop logistics organized by Nomura’s China Internet & New Media team, focusing on TTS global GMV growth, Southeast Asia logistics models, J&T Express beneficiary logic, Indonesia regulatory risks, and the impact of fuel costs on e-commerce logistics economics. The core conclusion is constructive: TTS remains a high-growth platform in Southeast Asia and the US, while the low AOV and fulfillment economics in Southeast Asia mean its short-term model is more suited to asset-light third-party logistics, which continues to support J&T’s parcel volume and earnings resilience in the region.

Core views

TTS 1H26 global GMV is about USD35bn, with Southeast Asia still the largest region and the US also scaling rapidly. In Southeast Asia, TTS daily parcel volume has reached about 20 million to 30 million parcels, with Indonesia contributing about 30% of regional parcel volume and Thailand being one of the faster-growing markets in 1H26. For J&T, TTS is an important parcel source in the region, and continued TTS growth should support J&T’s 2Q regional parcel-volume momentum. Although Indonesian regulation may require TTS to open up to more logistics partners, TTS still needs a centralized allocation system to balance service quality, network coverage, and costs, and J&T is expected to maintain a relatively high share due to scale and cost advantage.

Analysis framework

The report uses expert interviews and a cross-checking approach, mapping TTS platform GMV, regional parcel volume, fulfillment model, regulatory changes, and cost structure to J&T Express’s outlook for parcel volume, share, and margins. On valuation, Nomura disclosed that EV/EBIT is the primary method and derives J&T’s target price of HKD14 based on a FY26F EV/EBIT multiple of 18x.

Methodology notes

• expert_callExpert call cross-validation

  Evaluates fulfillment strategy and logistics-partner benefit levels through TTS logistics expert views

  Expert input is used to judge whether TTS will build large-scale logistics in Southeast Asia, whether it will adjust its parcel allocation mechanism, and the real pressures on J&T’s share and margin.

• Valuation methodsEV/EBIT multiple valuation

  Derives J&T target price from a 18x FY26F EV/EBIT

  The report discloses EV/EBIT as the main valuation method, with a target price of HKD14 and the Hang Seng Index as the reference benchmark.

• operating_modelComparison of asset-light third-party logistics versus FBT model

  Lower-AOV markets are more suitable for an asset-light fulfillment ecosystem

  Southeast Asia AOV is about USD4-5, and consumers have limited willingness to pay for ultra-fast delivery, so TTS is more likely in the short term to use third-party logistics and local certified-warehouse management to support fulfillment standards, rather than building a large self-operated network like Amazon FBA.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• J&T Express（1519 HK）

  Core beneficiary name, where TTS e-commerce logistics growth in Southeast Asia directly drives its parcel volume

  Strengths

  Deep integration with TTS; broad network coverage in Southeast Asia; strong fulfillment capability; clear cost advantage; handles a high proportion of TTS parcels in most markets.

  Weaknesses

  High dependence on TTS parcels; regulatory changes in single markets such as Indonesia may increase share-dilution pressure.

  Comparison

  Compared with potentially newly onboarded regional logistics providers, J&T is more competitive in scale, service quality, and cost.

  Risks

  Intensifying market competition, parcel growth below expectations, weaker-than-expected cost optimization, and country-specific regulatory risk.

• TikTok Shop (TTS)

  Demand source and platform; its GMV growth and fulfillment strategy determine third-party logistics opportunities

  Strengths

  High GMV growth in Southeast Asia and the US; centralized allocation systems help balance cost, coverage, and service quality; local warehouse fulfillment standards can be managed through policy incentives.

  Weaknesses

  Low AOV in Southeast Asia limits the economics of ultra-fast delivery and asset-heavy warehouse and network models; some markets face regulatory scrutiny over logistics concentration.

  Comparison

  The US is pushing FBT more aggressively, while Southeast Asia is better suited to asset-light third-party logistics and local certified-warehouse ecosystems.

  Risks

  Indonesia antitrust investigation, excessive logistics concentration on the platform, and the pressure of balancing fulfillment experience with cost.

Key data

• TTS 1H26 global GMVabout USD35bnExperts said Southeast Asia and the US were the main contributing regions.
• TTS full-year GMV targetabout USD100bnExperts see a good chance of achieving this in 2H26 as promotional intensity increases.
• Southeast Asia GMV shareabout 53%Southeast Asia remains the largest TTS region, with about 2x year-on-year growth in 1H26.
• North America GMV shareabout 29%This is mainly the US; growth exceeded 130% year-on-year in 1H26 as last year’s tariff-related base was low.
• Europe GMV shareabout 10%Europe remains relatively small, while Latin America is still in an early ramp-up phase.
• Southeast Asia AOVabout USD4-5Singapore’s AOV is higher, but overall contribution is limited.
• Southeast Asia daily parcel volumeabout 20 million to 30 million parcels/day2Q parcel-volume growth is broadly in line with 1Q, close to year-on-year doubling.
• Indonesia parcel shareabout 30%Indonesia is the largest market in Southeast Asia, and Thailand is one of the fastest-growing markets in 1H26.
• Parcel unit cost structurelast-mile delivery around 60%, trunk transport around 20%Fuel costs affect only the trunk segment, so the impact on overall unit cost is limited.
• J&T current price and ratingHKD9.25; BuyPrice date is 2026-07-03.
• J&T target priceHKD14Based on 18x FY26F EV/EBIT.

Impact & implications

The investment implication for J&T Express is broadly positive. TTS GMV and parcel growth in Southeast Asia provide demand support, and if TTS does not quickly shift to self-operated logistics in the short term, the risk of J&T being internally displaced by the platform is lower. Even if Indonesian regulation pushes diversification among logistics partners, J&T’s network, service quality, and cost advantage still help maintain a high share. Rising fuel costs may limit room for freight-price cuts, but may also reduce TTS’s incentive to over-press pricing, helping J&T defend reasonable margins.

Risks

• An Indonesia logistics-related antitrust investigation may require TTS to onboard more logistics partners, causing J&T share dilution.
• Intensifying e-commerce logistics competition in Southeast Asia could compress per-parcel pricing and margins.
• If TTS parcel volume or GMV growth falls below expectations, J&T’s regional growth momentum will weaken.
• Rising fuel and labor costs may affect parcel economics.
• If TTS more aggressively expands self-operated logistics or FBT in the future, long-term opportunities for third-party logistics partners may be squeezed.

What to watch

• The intensity of TTS 2H26 promotions and progress toward the roughly USD100bn full-year GMV target.
• Whether daily parcel volume in Southeast Asia continues near-doubling growth, especially in Indonesia and Thailand.
• The outcome of the Indonesian regulatory investigation and whether TTS adjusts its centralized allocation algorithm and logistics partner admission mechanism.
• Whether TTS expands FBT or self-operated logistics pilots in Southeast Asia, and whether TikTok Shop’s logistics capability is further integrated with Tokopedia.
• Results of annual price negotiations between J&T and TTS, per-parcel price changes, and margin trends.