Global nuclear reactor progress continues, uranium long-term pricing is stronger, and 2Q26 earnings outlook is relatively modest

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs' July edition of the Global Reactor Tracker, focusing on the latest developments in global reactors, SMR projects, and uranium and fuel markets, while providing a 2Q26 earnings-preview view for major nuclear coverage companies. It covers North America, Europe, Asia and other regions, with emphasis on U.S. advanced nuclear and fuel supply-chain policy support, reactor life extensions in Canada and the U.K., European support for new nuclear build, China’s grid-connection and criticality progress, and global SMR and microreactor announcements.

Core views

The core view is that global nuclear construction and policy support remain active, with many catalysts around advanced reactors, SMR, fuel supply chains and longer-term uranium demand; however, short-term market performance has not fully translated into nuclear stock performance, with covered stocks significantly lagging the benchmark over the past three months. Uranium spot pricing is stable, while long-term prices continue rising, suggesting greater resilience in the long-term contract market. At company level, Cameco and UEC have muted 2Q26 expectations, while OKLO and SMR are more focused on execution, regulation and project-ramp cadence.

Analysis framework

The report combines event tracking, regional segmentation, project progress updates, fuel-supply-chain announcements, and uranium price and volume tracking with a company earnings-forecast and consensus comparison. Nuclear projects are categorized by North America, Europe, Asia and other regions, with SMR announcements tracked separately. Market data focuses on spot, term, volume, futures and Sprott Physical Uranium Trust activity; the equity section compares three-month stock performance and changes in short interest.

Methodology notes

• Industry data trackingGlobal reactor tracking

  Tracks new build, restart, grid connection, criticality, life extension, mothballing and regulatory progress by region.

  This framework is used to judge whether global nuclear build cycles are continuing and to identify potential impacts on uranium demand, nuclear fuel services and nuclear power equipment supply chains.

• Commodity market trackingUranium price and volume tracking

  Tracks U3O8 spot, term price, spot volume, term volume and related fuel pricing simultaneously.

  The report highlights spot prices oscillating in the short term but long-term prices rising, indicating that utility long-term procurement demand and supply constraints still support the long-term fundamental story.

• Earnings preview2Q26 earnings preview and forecast restatement

  Compares Goldman Sachs forecasts against FactSet consensus, company guidance and segment revenue/EBITDA splits.

  This approach is used to assess whether near-term financial results may trigger forecast revisions, while shifting investment focus from a single quarter to execution progress and long-term nuclear demand.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Cameco (CCJ/CCO.TO)

  A beneficiary of uranium production, fuel services and Westinghouse-related nuclear construction cycles.

  Strengths

  Rated Buy; higher Cigar Lake ownership profile; support from long-term uranium prices and fuel services demand.

  Weaknesses

  Goldman Sachs expects relatively muted 2Q26, and the stock fell about 17% over the past three months.

  Comparison

  Compared with pure SMR names, Cameco has more direct exposure to uranium pricing and fuel services, with fundamentals more tied to resource and fuel-supply-chain dynamics.

  Risks

  Insufficient pace of final investment decisions for new reactors, uranium price volatility, execution execution risk and weakening sector sentiment.

• Uranium Energy Corp. (UEC)

  A stock tied to uranium production expansion and the U.S. uranium supply chain.

  Strengths

  Rated Buy; market focus on production-growth contribution, with significant upside potential versus disclosed close prices.

  Weaknesses

  Down about 22% over the past three months, with prior earnings misses and permitting delays.

  Comparison

  Compared with Cameco, UEC is more sensitive to permitting, expansion ramp-up and U.S. uranium supply realization.

  Risks

  Permitting delays, production ramp slower than expected, uranium price pullback and quarterly earnings volatility.

• Oklo (OKLO)

  A stock linked to advanced reactor and microreactor execution progress.

  Strengths

  Rated Neutral; DOE approval of Aurora reactor PDSA, a regulatory milestone for project advancement.

  Weaknesses

  Commercialization still depends on execution pace, fuel supply, regulation and customer deployment, with near-term performance more like a status update.

  Comparison

  Compared with uranium resource plays, OKLO is more an execution-sensitive, policy-sensitive advanced nuclear growth story.

  Risks

  Project delays, regulatory approvals slower than expected, fuel supply constraints, rising short interest and valuation volatility.

• NuScale Power (SMR)

  A stock tied to SMR commercialization and project progress.

  Strengths

  Rated Neutral; increasing global SMR announcements help keep industry focus elevated.

  Weaknesses

  Expected to be another quarter of continued status updates, with limited clear near-term earnings catalysts.

  Comparison

  Similar to OKLO, SMR is more dependent on execution and commercial orders than on uranium prices themselves.

  Risks

  Insufficient order conversion, debate over project economics, financing and construction cost pressure, and rising short interest.

• U3O8 uranium commodity

  Core upstream commodity supporting global reactor build, life-extension and fuel procurement demand.

  Strengths

  Long-term price has moved to about $94/lb, with continued support in long-term contract markets.

  Weaknesses

  Spot prices have been range-bound in the near term with low trading activity.

  Comparison

  Long-term prices are stronger than spot and better reflect utility long-term procurement demand.

  Risks

  Low spot market activity, speculative exits, mine-supply normalization, and delayed policy or nuclear-project execution.

Key data

• Uranium spot priceabout $85/lbIt moved from about $86/lb in early June down to mid-$84 before recovering to mid-$85; by month-end and early July, it held roughly around $85/lb.
• Uranium long-term priceabout $94/lbLong-term prices rose from about $93/lb at the beginning of the month to about $94/lb by late June; the report sees support remaining in the long-term price.
• Three-month performance of nuclear coverage stocks-11% average, versus +11% for the S&P 500The report states that the nuclear coverage basket has underperformed the S&P 500 by about 22 percentage points over the past three months.
• Key individual stock three-month performanceSMR -2%, OKLO -3%, UEC -22%, CCJ -17%UEC has been more affected by below-consensus earnings and permitting delays, while CCJ was affected by limited updates on final investment decisions for new reactors and weaker sector sentiment.
• Cameco 2Q26 revenue / adjusted EBITDA forecastC$816mn / C$457mnGoldman Sachs versus FactSet consensus of C$813mn / C$463mn remains a generally moderate outlook.
• Cameco segment revenue forecastUranium C$646mn, Fuel services C$170mnUranium segment is expected to decline year-over-year by 8%, while fuel services are expected to rise year-over-year by 5%.
• U.S. DOE loan commitmentup to $17.5bnTo support long-cycle component procurement for up to 10 Westinghouse AP1000 reactors.
• Sizewell B life extensionExtended to 2055 (+20 years), EDF investing £800mnHighlights the importance of life-extending existing nuclear assets for supply security and long-term power generation capacity.

Impact & implications

From an investment perspective, the report supports the structural case for medium- to long-term nuclear and uranium demand: policy support, reactor life extensions, SMR regulatory progress, expansion of fuel supply chains and higher long-term contract prices are all supportive of chain strength. However, near-term stock performance and 2Q26 earnings expectations indicate that the market still focuses on execution risk, licensing pace, final investment decisions, financing capacity and earnings-realization timing. Companies more directly benefiting from uranium prices and fuel supply chain dynamics may have stronger fundamental support, while SMR-related names still need project milestone validation to justify valuation.

Risks

• Licensing, financing, construction and commercialization progress for global nuclear and SMR projects may lag announcement pace.
• Uranium spot market activity is sluggish; if long-term contract demand weakens, price support may fade.
• Nuclear stocks have shown clear divergence, and weaker sector sentiment or rising short interest could increase volatility.
• Cameco, UEC and peers may be affected by quarterly earnings, permit delays, ramp-up execution and cost pressure.
• SMR and advanced reactor valuations are highly sensitive to regulatory milestones, fuel availability and order conversion.

What to watch

• Updates from Cameco, UEC, OKLO and SMR in 2Q26 earnings on project progress, costs, permitting and demand.
• Whether U.S. DOE, NRC and U.K. GDA policy and regulatory support continues to convert into actual milestones.
• Whether long-term uranium contract pricing can continue to rise and whether spot prices can break out of the area around $85/lb.
• Whether new large reactors and SMR projects move into final investment decisions, construction, grid connection, or commercial operation.
• Expansion of the nuclear fuel supply chain, including HALEU, enrichment, TRISO fuel, reprocessing and uranium mine project start-up cadence.