Stronger BEV demand in Europe continues to lift charging demand

Overview

The report tracks public charging infrastructure construction, BEV registration trends, and changes in charging demand in Europe, especially the EU5. The core conclusion is that charging pile construction is still growing but at a slower pace, while improving BEV sales and higher usage of the existing BEV fleet together are lifting charging demand, creating a more favorable demand environment for charging point operators and the infrastructure supply chain.

Core views

First, Europe’s charging network continues to expand, but the pace of construction in Q2 slowed both year over year and quarter over quarter. Second, under AFIR’s power-output-focused regulatory framework, EAFO data show that most member states are broadly meeting the specific targets. Third, the share of DC charging continues to rise, indicating that the network structure is evolving toward higher power and greater efficiency. Fourth, BEV registrations showed upward momentum in June and significantly outperformed the overall auto market; combined with high oil prices that may lift usage of the existing BEV fleet, charging demand still has room to rise further. Fifth, Fastned’s and Alfen’s August earnings releases will be an important window to verify demand strength and the extent of supply chain benefits.

Analysis framework

The report mainly uses an industry data-tracking framework: it uses EAFO public charging point data to observe EU and EU5 charging network stock, quarterly additions, year-over-year growth, and DC share; it uses the EV/charging point ratio to measure supply-demand matching pressure; and, combined with BEV registration data, oil price factors, and the industry characteristic of an approximately three-month lag from orders to registrations, it assesses the sustainability of charging demand and its impact on related listed companies.

Methodology notes

• Industry supply-demand trackingPublic charging network build-rate analysis

  charging point build rate

  By looking at public charging point stock, year-over-year growth, quarter-over-quarter growth, and quarterly additions, the report judges whether the pace of charging infrastructure supply expansion is keeping up with BEV usage demand.

• Regulatory target benchmarkingAFIR and EAFO target check

  AFIR power-output targets

  The report cites the EAFO website’s assessment of progress toward AFIR’s power-output-focused targets to judge whether public charging infrastructure in EU member states is close to regulatory requirements.

• Utilization and congestion indicatorEVs per charging point ratio

  EVs per charging point

  A higher EV/charging point ratio usually means that each charging point serves more vehicles, implying higher potential utilization and network pressure, and may also reflect expansion demand.

• Demand lag analysisOrder-to-registration lag

  three-month order-to-registration lag

  The report believes there is typically an approximately three-month lag from BEV orders to registrations, so stronger charging demand in Q1 may have first reflected higher utilization of the existing fleet, while the improvement in registrations in June may provide further support for subsequent charging demand.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Fastned

  A charging point operator that may directly benefit from stronger charging demand and higher network utilization.

  Strengths

  Q1 already showed stronger-than-seasonal charging demand; if this continues in Q2, it will strengthen the evidence of improving demand.

  Weaknesses

  The demand improvement still needs to be verified by earnings disclosures, and network expansion may be affected by construction pace, grid connection, and the investment environment.

  Comparison

  Compared with construction supply chain companies, Fastned is more directly sensitive to changes in charging volume and utilization.

  Risks

  BEV registration improvement does not persist, falling oil prices lead to lower utilization, or charging network expansion is constrained.

• Alfen

  A charging infrastructure construction supply chain company that may benefit from medium- to long-term demand for charging network expansion.

  Strengths

  Europe’s public charging network still needs to expand, and the rising DC share and long-term targets may support equipment and construction demand.

  Weaknesses

  Q2 construction speed slowed year over year and quarter over quarter, and short-term order momentum may fluctuate.

  Comparison

  Compared with charging operators, Alfen is more exposed to the construction cycle and capital expenditure chain and is more affected by changes in construction pace.

  Risks

  A slowdown in charging pile construction, grid constraints, investment barriers, regulatory target adjustments, or delayed customer capital spending.

• European charging infrastructure industry

  An industry theme driven jointly by BEV penetration and public charging network construction.

  Strengths

  Public charging point stock continues to grow, the DC share is rising, and improved BEV registrations provide demand support.

  Weaknesses

  Construction speed is slowing, and the rising EV/charging point ratio in some countries shows that supply expansion remains uneven.

  Comparison

  Italy and Spain are seeing stronger construction growth than the overall EU, Germany lagged in Q2, and the UK faces a higher EV/charging point ratio and grid constraints.

  Risks

  Grid congestion, permitting and investment barriers, BEV sales volatility, oil price changes, and uncertainty in policy implementation.

Key data

• EU public charging point stock1,170kAs of the end of Q2, up 18% year over year and 4% quarter over quarter.
• Q2 quarterly build volume45kSlightly below the five-year average, down 20% year over year and about 20k lower than Q1.
• Forecast network size by end-20261,267kEstimated based on the average build rate of recent years.
• EU DC charging share18.9%Up 30bp quarter over quarter, above 16.8% in Q2-25.
• Italy charging network YoY growth21%A strong performer within the EU5, outperforming the overall EU.
• Spain charging network YoY growth20%Outperforming the overall EU, with the leading DC share in the EU5 at about 27%.
• Germany charging network YoY growth14%Below the overall EU growth rate, though the report notes Germany outperformed the market in Q1, reflecting volatility in the construction industry.
• UK EV/charging point ratio28.8xThe highest in the EU5, rising continuously since Q2-22, affected by grid congestion and constraints on dense network buildout.
• Italy EV/charging point ratio12.2xThe lowest in the EU5, but up from 11.4x in the previous quarter.
• June EU5 BEV registration relative performanceoutperforming overall market by 50pptsPreliminary BEV registrations rebounded, possibly related to high oil prices, and may further support charging demand.
• Upcoming earnings disclosure windowFastned: August 13th; Alfen: August 18thThe report expects Q2 disclosures to provide more information verifying demand and supply chain trends.

Impact & implications

From an investment perspective, improvement on the demand side is more important than a simple slowdown in charging pile construction. If the rebound in BEV registrations and the rise in utilization driven by high oil prices continue, charging point operators may benefit from higher utilization, and the infrastructure construction supply chain may also benefit from medium- to long-term network expansion demand. However, grid congestion in markets such as the UK and the generally rising EV/charging point ratio across the EU5 indicate that network construction, grid connection capacity, and investment barriers remain the main constraints on industry expansion.

Risks

• EU public charging pile construction speed fell 20% year over year in Q2; if the slowdown continues, it may constrain industry supply expansion.
• Grid congestion exists in markets such as the UK, which may hinder the rollout of dense charging networks.
• The improvement in BEV registrations may be affected by external factors such as oil prices; if oil prices fall or auto demand weakens, charging demand growth may slow.
• The EV/charging point ratio is generally rising across the EU5, indicating greater supply-demand matching pressure in some markets.
• The charging construction industry has quarterly volatility, so single-quarter country performance should not be linearly extrapolated.
• If Fastned’s and Alfen’s actual results do not verify the demand improvement, the related investment narrative may be weakened.

What to watch

• Charging volume, utilization, revenue, and network expansion data in Fastned’s Q2 disclosure on August 13.
• Orders, charging equipment demand, and supply chain trends in Alfen’s Q2 disclosure on August 18.
• Whether subsequent BEV registrations in the EU5 continue to outperform the overall auto market.
• Whether quarterly additions of EU public charging points recover from the low level seen in Q2.
• Whether the DC charging share continues to rise and whether high-power charging networks improve user experience.
• Whether there is improvement in UK grid congestion and Germany’s lagging construction growth.
• AFIR target execution and member states’ compliance with power-output targets.