2Q26 foot traffic recovered at a high-end Nanjing mall, but sales momentum diverged; Laopu Gold growth slowed but Buy is maintained
AI summary card
2Q26 foot traffic recovered at a high-end Nanjing mall, but sales momentum diverged; Laopu Gold growth slowed but Buy is maintained
Nomura's expert call showed that quarter-to-date 2Q26 foot traffic at a leading luxury mall in Nanjing rose about 10% year-over-year and sales grew by a mid-single-digit percentage year-over-year, but gold jewelry and luxury brands performed divergently, and while Laopu Gold still posted high growth, momentum slowed versus 1Q26.
- Quarter-to-date in 2Q26, the mall's total foot traffic increased by about 10% year-over-year, and total sales rose by a mid-single-digit percentage year-over-year, but weakened quarter-over-quarter versus 1Q26, which included the peak Chinese New Year season.
- Consumers are showing a stronger preference for experiential consumption, and the mall stimulated spending through promotional windows such as Labor Day, "520," and its 20th anniversary celebration.
- Experts remain positive on the long-term outlook for the gold jewelry segment; Van Cleef & Arpels delivered double-digit same-store sales growth year-over-year, while Cartier's same-store sales decline narrowed versus 1Q26.
- Laopu Gold's 2Q26 same-store sales grew 40-50% year-over-year, below the more than 70% growth in 1Q26; the slowdown was attributed to intensifying competition within the mall and weaker consumer sentiment following a pullback in gold prices.
- Global luxury brand performance diverged: Dior showed a notable recovery, Hermès, Louis Vuitton, and Chanel maintained stable sales momentum, while other luxury brands remained in a downtrend.
Report interpretation
Overview
This report is Nomura's observation on China's high-end consumption based on an expert channel-check call held on June 24, 2026, focusing on quarter-to-date 2Q26 foot traffic, sales, and brand performance at a leading luxury mall in Nanjing, Jiangsu. The core conclusion is that foot traffic recovery has been strong, but sales conversion and brand performance have been uneven, with 2Q26 sales weakening quarter-over-quarter versus the Chinese New Year peak season in 1Q26; long-term demand for gold jewelry remains attractive, but the growth rate of individual brands is being affected by competition and changes in gold prices.
Core views
The report believes that Chinese consumers in high-end malls are increasingly oriented toward experience-related consumption scenarios. Mall promotions can drive experiential consumption, but overall sales growth was only in the mid-single digits. Gold jewelry is a relatively more promising luxury category, with international high-end jewelry brands maintaining solid performance. Laopu Gold still posted high same-store growth of 40-50%, but this slowed significantly versus 1Q26. Performance within luxury brands is diverging: Dior has seen a more visible recovery, Hermès, Louis Vuitton, and Chanel are stable, while other brands continue to face downward sales pressure.
Analysis framework
The report uses expert interviews and channel checks to assess short-term momentum changes in China's high-end consumption, gold jewelry, and luxury brands by observing foot traffic, sales, same-store sales growth of major brands, and promotional windows at a leading luxury mall in Nanjing, and combines this with Laopu Gold's rating, target price, and valuation methodology to derive investment implications.
Methodology notes
Using an expert with experience in China's high-end consumption trends to observe foot traffic, sales, and brand performance at a single leading luxury mall.
This method can provide timely frontline consumption trends, but the sample is concentrated in one mall in Nanjing and cannot directly represent all high-end consumption scenarios nationwide.
Laopu Gold's target price of HKD 1,114 is based on 22.5x FY26F P/E.
Nomura believes this multiple is consistent with Laopu Gold's strong sales and earnings growth trajectory, with the Hang Seng Index as the benchmark index.
Asset mapping & comparison
Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).
- Laopu Gold (6181 HK)A covered name prominently discussed in the report, rated Buy.
- Strengths
- Same-store sales still achieved 40-50% year-over-year growth in 2Q26, benefiting from long-term Chinese consumer demand for high-craftsmanship, high-end jewelry, and collectibles.
- Weaknesses
- Sales growth slowed from the more than 70% level in 1Q26, affected by intensifying competition among gold jewelry brands within the mall and weaker consumer sentiment caused by falling gold prices.
- Comparison
- Compared with Van Cleef & Arpels' double-digit growth and Cartier's narrowing decline, Laopu Gold still has high growth but shows a more obvious slowdown in marginal momentum.
- Risks
- A significant decline in gold prices, fashion risk exceeding expectations, a weaker-than-expected macro environment, and further intensification of competition from similar brands within the mall.
- Richemont (CFR SW)Its Van Cleef & Arpels and Cartier brands are mentioned in the report; not rated.
- Strengths
- Van Cleef & Arpels sustained strong sales momentum in 2Q26, with double-digit year-over-year same-store sales growth; Cartier's same-store sales decline narrowed versus 1Q26.
- Weaknesses
- Cartier is still described as having a narrowing year-over-year decline, and the report does not indicate it has returned to positive growth.
- Comparison
- Compared with Laopu Gold, Richemont's brands demonstrate the resilience of international high-end jewelry brands, though the disclosed growth magnitude is less specific than for Laopu Gold.
- Risks
- If demand for high-end jewelry is dragged down by gold prices, consumer sentiment, or the macro environment, the pace of brand sales recovery may slow.
- LVMH (MC FP)Its Dior and Louis Vuitton brands are mentioned in the report; not rated.
- Strengths
- Dior showed clear signs of recovery at the Nanjing mall, while Louis Vuitton maintained stable sales growth momentum in 2Q26.
- Weaknesses
- The report also notes that other luxury brands still face a downward sales trend, indicating that the luxury sector is not seeing a full recovery.
- Comparison
- Compared with gold jewelry, traditional luxury brands are showing more divergence, with clearer differences in recovery pace across brands.
- Risks
- If confidence in China's high-end consumption remains insufficient or foot-traffic conversion stays weak, the recovery in luxury brand sales may lack sustainability.
- Hermès (RMS FP)Mentioned in the report as a global luxury brand; not rated.
- Strengths
- Sales growth momentum remained stable at the mall in 2Q26.
- Weaknesses
- The report did not disclose specific sales growth rates or same-store sales data.
- Comparison
- Performance is better than that of other luxury brands still in a downtrend, but the recovery narrative is less explicit than Dior's.
- Risks
- Weak high-end consumption, insufficient foot-traffic conversion, or changes in brand demand could affect sales stability.
Key data
- Quarter-to-date 2Q26 foot trafficAbout +10% year-over-yearTotal foot traffic at a leading luxury mall in Nanjing recovered strongly.
- Quarter-to-date 2Q26 salesMid-single-digit percentage growth year-over-yearSales growth was weaker than the recovery in foot traffic and also weakened quarter-over-quarter versus the Chinese New Year peak season in 1Q26.
- Laopu Gold same-store sales growth+40-50% year-over-year in 2Q26, versus above +70% year-over-year in 1Q26Growth remains high, but the pace has clearly slowed.
- Van Cleef & Arpels same-store salesDouble-digit percentage growth year-over-year in 2Q26The brand is owned by Richemont, indicating strong momentum for international high-end jewelry brands.
- Cartier same-store salesYear-over-year decline narrowed versus 1Q26Also part of Richemont; performance improved, but there is no indication it has returned to positive growth.
- Laopu Gold rating and priceBuy; HKD 367.80 (25-Jun-2026)Industry rating is N/A.
- Laopu Gold target priceHKD 1,114Based on 22.5x FY26F P/E.
Impact & implications
For investors, the report suggests that the recovery in high-end consumption is not fully synchronized: rising foot traffic does not necessarily translate into strong sales growth, and brand strength, category attributes, and gold price trends can materially affect sales performance. Laopu Gold remains in a high-growth range and carries a Buy rating, but its slowing growth indicates that the market needs to track the marginal impact of intensifying competition, falling gold prices, and changes in consumer sentiment on demand for high-end gold jewelry.
Risks
- A significant weakening in gold prices could undermine sentiment toward gold jewelry consumption and affect the achievement of Laopu Gold's target price.
- The introduction of more gold jewelry brands into the mall could intensify competition and suppress the growth momentum of individual brands.
- A weaker-than-expected macro environment could affect high-end consumption and luxury goods sales.
- Higher-than-expected fashion risk could affect the product appeal and sales sustainability of high-end jewelry brands.
- This survey sample is concentrated in a single mall in Nanjing and expert opinions, which limits representativeness.
What to watch
- Whether Laopu Gold's subsequent same-store sales growth can remain at a high level or continues to fall back from the high base in 1Q26.
- Changes in gold prices and their impact on willingness to purchase gold jewelry and on consumer sentiment.
- Whether the growth gap among Van Cleef & Arpels, Cartier, and Laopu Gold widens.
- Whether Dior's recovery can continue, and whether the stable performance of Hermès, Louis Vuitton, and Chanel can translate into a broader luxury recovery.
- Whether foot traffic generated by the mall's promotional windows can effectively convert into sales rather than merely driving experiential consumption growth.