China’s premium consumption clearly recovered in March, with luxury shopping centers still leading

Overview

This report focuses on the March conditions of China’s premium consumption sector. Nomura held a China domestic demand check call on April 8 and spoke with experts familiar with trends in China’s premium consumption. The expert observed a leading luxury shopping center operator in China that owns more than 100 mid- to high-end shopping centers, mainly located in first-tier and leading second- and third-tier cities. The core conclusion is that premium shopping center sales remained resilient in March, and luxury projects continued to outperform non-luxury projects.

Core views

The report believes China’s premium shopping centers recovered significantly in March: same-store sales at leading operators’ projects rose by low double digits year over year, and foot traffic increased by high single digits year over year. Same-store sales at luxury shopping centers grew by nearly 15% year over year, about 5 percentage points higher than non-luxury shopping centers. Growth highlights were concentrated in most luxury brands, gold jewelry, dining, as well as sports leisure and outdoor apparel; beauty/cosmetics still saw low single-digit same-store sales declines, and menswear was the weakest apparel subcategory.

Analysis framework

The report uses expert research and category-by-category sales momentum tracking, focusing on same-store sales, foot traffic changes, and performance by business format across projects of a leading luxury shopping center operator, while combining valuation methods and risk disclosures of the relevant covered companies for asset mapping.

Methodology notes

• channel researchexpert conference call

  Experts judge trends in China’s premium consumption based on observations from leading premium shopping center operators’ projects.

  This approach can quickly reflect marginal changes in offline premium consumption, but the sample is concentrated in top-tier mid- to high-end malls and may be biased toward premium customer segments.

• operating metricsame-store sales

  Same-store sales measure sales growth on a comparable basis for stores or projects.

  The report uses year-over-year same-store sales growth to compare the conditions of luxury shopping centers, non-luxury shopping centers, and various consumer categories.

• Valuation methodsprice-to-earnings ratio and sum-of-the-parts valuation

  ANTA and Laopu Gold use a forward P/E framework, while Amer Sports uses a segment-based EV/EBITDA sum-of-the-parts valuation.

  The valuation disclosures show that ANTA’s target price is based on 25x forward 12-month P/E, Laopu Gold’s target price is based on 22.5x FY26F P/E, and Amer Sports uses segment target EV/EBITDA to derive a USD47.90 target price.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Laopu Gold (6181 HK)

  Gold jewelry highlight and covered name in the report

  Strengths

  March same-store sales rose by more than 60% year over year, remaining better than expected after the price increase; the brand is moving toward a luxury positioning through strategic price adjustments, product optimization, and greater overlap with premium customers.

  Weaknesses

  Growth is sensitive to the strength of premium consumption, gold prices, and the brand’s fashion appeal.

  Comparison

  Stronger than some international jewelry brands that are still in a weak recovery phase.

  Risks

  A significant decline in gold prices, fashion risk higher than expected, and weaker-than-expected macro conditions.

• ANTA (2020 HK)

  Exposed to premium sportswear demand through Descente

  Strengths

  Affordable luxury sports brands such as Descente performed well within sports leisure and outdoor apparel.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not provide ANTA’s overall March sales data and maps it only indirectly through its brands and valuation disclosure.

  Comparison

  Sports leisure and outdoor subcategories are stronger than menswear and beauty/cosmetics.

  Risks

  Intensifying competition at home and abroad, slower-than-expected sales growth, and weaker-than-expected macro conditions.

• Amer Sports (AS US)

  Exposed to premium outdoor consumption trends through Arc'teryx

  Strengths

  As an affordable luxury sports brand, Arc'teryx stood out in the sports/outdoor category at premium shopping centers.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not provide overall March operating data for Amer Sports.

  Comparison

  Outdoor and sports leisure categories are relatively stronger than other apparel subcategories.

  Risks

  Weaker-than-expected China business, inventories higher than expected; upside risks include stronger-than-expected sales momentum across segments and faster-than-expected DTC expansion.

• China premium shopping center operator

  Expert observation sample reflecting premium offline consumption channels

  Strengths

  Operates more than 100 mid- to high-end shopping centers, covering first-tier and leading second- and third-tier cities; both same-store sales and foot traffic increased year over year in March.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not disclose the specific company name or financial data.

  Comparison

  Luxury shopping center performance was clearly better than that of non-luxury shopping centers.

  Risks

  The sample is biased toward premium channels; if macro demand weakens or premium customer growth slows, sales momentum may ease.

Key data

• March same-store sales at leading premium shopping center projectslow double-digit year-over-year growthExpert feedback covering projects under the leading premium shopping center operator.
• March total foot traffic at leading premium shopping centershigh single-digit year-over-year growthIndicates a recovery in offline store visits.
• March same-store sales at luxury shopping centersnearly 15% year-over-year growthAbout 5 percentage points higher than non-luxury shopping centers.
• March same-store sales at luxury brandsnearly 10% year-over-year growthReached a recent high.
• March same-store sales at Laopu Goldmore than 60% year-over-year growthSales remained better than expected despite a price increase at the end of February 2026.
• March same-store sales at dininglow double-digit year-over-year growthPartly supported by the delayed 2026 Lantern Festival and the continued holiday effect.
• March sales for womenswearmid- to high-single-digit to double-digit year-over-year growthMenswear was roughly flat and was the weakest subcategory within apparel.
• March same-store sales for beauty/cosmeticslow-single-digit year-over-year declineThis category remained under pressure.
• ANTA target priceHKD125Based on 25x forward 12-month P/E.
• Laopu Gold target priceHKD1,114Based on 22.5x FY26F P/E.
• Amer Sports target priceUSD47.90Implied 16.3x forward 12-month EV/EBITDA.

Impact & implications

If the March trend continues, improvements in foot traffic and same-store sales at premium shopping centers would support revenue momentum for luxury brands, gold jewelry, dining, and sports/outdoor brands. Laopu Gold’s strong same-store sales support its move toward premiumization and a luxury positioning; ANTA’s Descente and Amer Sports’ Arc'teryx and other sports/outdoor assets should benefit from demand for premium sports leisure. By contrast, beauty/cosmetics and menswear remain weaker, suggesting that the consumer recovery is still structurally uneven.

Risks

• The recovery in premium consumption may be concentrated in top malls and premium customer segments and may not represent a broad-based improvement in overall consumption.
• Weaker-than-expected macro conditions could weigh on shopping center foot traffic, same-store sales, and brand sales growth.
• A significant decline in gold prices could affect sales and valuations of gold jewelry companies.
• Intensifying competition among domestic and international brands could compress the growth space for apparel, sports/outdoor, and jewelry companies.
• Beauty/cosmetics and menswear remain relatively weak, indicating that the recovery across categories is uneven.
• The expert research sample is limited and is based mainly on observations from one leading premium shopping center operator.

What to watch

• Whether same-store sales and foot traffic at premium shopping centers continue the March recovery in April and in the second quarter.
• Whether the growth gap between luxury and non-luxury shopping centers narrows or widens.
• The sustainability of Laopu Gold’s ticket size, foot traffic, and same-store sales after the price increase.
• Sales momentum for sports/outdoor and sports leisure brands such as Arc'teryx and Descente in premium channels.
• Whether true demand can still maintain low double-digit growth after the holiday timing benefit in dining fades.
• Whether beauty/cosmetics and menswear show any marginal improvement.