European roadshow feedback shows AI holdings remain concentrated, with CPO emerging as a new point of debate

Overview

This report summarizes feedback from Goldman Sachs' Taiwan technology team after discussions with more than 35 investors during its European roadshow. Overall, investors remain strongly interested in AI-related opportunities, especially structural growth companies in the semiconductor value chain; however, positioning has become more selective, with capital concentrated in a narrower set of high-growth names, and valuation discussions have become more prominent after the recent rally. Goldman believes flows are likely to continue concentrating in high-growth AI names, thereby supporting valuation premiums for the structural winners.

Core views

The key views are: first, TSMC remains a core focus and core holding for European investors, with competitive advantages coming from technology leadership, scale of capex, and execution capability; second, CPO is a highly debated theme with limited visibility on adoption; third, MediaTek is facing near-term pressure from weak smartphone demand and uncertainty around a single Google ASIC project, but 2027 ASIC and automotive TAM still provide long-term optionality; fourth, Aspeed enjoys high investor confidence thanks to its high BMC market share and TAM expansion driven by AI servers and Agentic AI; fifth, Hon Precision, GPTC, and All Ring benefit respectively from AI/HPC test upgrades, demand for advanced-packaging wet process equipment, and the expansion of CPO and panel-level packaging.

Analysis framework

The report is based on feedback from the European investor roadshow, combined with Goldman Sachs' investment ratings, target prices, valuation framework, and supply-demand views on its Taiwan technology coverage names, to compare themes such as AI, advanced packaging, CPO, ASIC, BMC, and test equipment. The analysis focuses not on a single company's earnings update, but on changes in investor positioning, debate points, valuation sensitivity, and structural growth logic.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodTarget P/E multiple method

  Derive the 12-month target price by multiplying forecast EPS by the target P/E multiple.

  TSMC's target price is based on 2027E EPS and a 22x target P/E; Aspeed is based on 2028E EPS, a 40x target P/E, and discounting; Hon Precision is based on 2027E EPS and a 32x target P/E.

• Valuation methodFundamental valuation and M&A theoretical value weighting

  Use a weighted mix of fundamental P/E valuation and potential M&A value for certain equipment companies.

  GPTC and All Ring target prices both use 85% fundamental valuation and 15% theoretical M&A value, reflecting the acquisition premium in the semiconductor equipment sector.

• Goldman Sachs internal frameworkGS Factor Profile

  Compare stocks across growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite dimensions.

  This framework uses Goldman forecasts and standardized rankings to compare stocks with the market and industry peers, supplementing investment background judgment.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• TSMC (2330.TW/TSM)

  Core enabler of AI advanced process and advanced packaging

  Strengths

  Technology leadership, large-scale capex, and strong execution; more than 60% share of global foundry revenue, benefiting from AI/HPC and CoWoS.

  Weaknesses

  High ownership and index weighting, with investors focused on mature-node exits and constraints on advanced packaging expansion.

  Comparison

  Goldman believes the probability of Samsung or other competitors catching up in the near term is low.

  Risks

  Weaker end-demand, slower node migration, cooling AI investment, poor yields or execution, intensifying competition, and unfavorable FX or costs.

• MediaTek

  Long-term optionality in ASIC and automotive TAM, but weaker near-term sentiment

  Strengths

  Long-term opportunity from 2027 ASIC production, automotive design wins, and revenue ramp from mainland China customers.

  Weaknesses

  Weak smartphone demand, and a single Google ASIC project may not be enough to materially lift earnings.

  Comparison

  If AWS strengthens relative to Google, ecosystem changes could affect investors' view of ASIC opportunities.

  Risks

  Smartphone demand weaker than expected, ASIC volume ramp slower than expected, and changes in customer ecosystem.

• ASE

  A proxy beneficiary of spillover demand from TSMC's advanced packaging

  Strengths

  Benefits from structural growth in advanced packaging and is viewed by some investors as a proxy for TSMC's packaging roadmap.

  Weaknesses

  Investors are divided on whether it truly plays the role of a technology enabler.

  Comparison

  Compared with TSMC, ASE is more of a beneficiary of packaging capacity and spillover demand.

  Risks

  Advanced packaging expansion slower than expected and the market may not recognize the value proposition.

• Aspeed (5274.TWO)

  Beneficiary of AI server growth and BMC TAM expansion

  Strengths

  More than 70% global BMC market share, concentrated competition, and AST2700 penetration plus AI servers and Agentic AI driving ASP and TAM expansion.

  Weaknesses

  High valuation, with doubts about the sustainability of a premium multiple.

  Comparison

  The report says it has traded at an average of about 40x P/E over the past 10 years, and Goldman believes a high valuation can be sustained when competition and TAM growth are favorable.

  Risks

  Server demand recovery weaker than expected, AI server BMC penetration slower than expected, and intensifying competition.

• Hon Precision (7769.TW)

  Beneficiary of AI/HPC test equipment upgrades

  Strengths

  Over 90% market share in FT handlers for AI/HPC applications, with AOI, MCL, handler upgrades, and adoption of CPO and SLT driving ASP and demand.

  Weaknesses

  Needs to prove its long-term share structure and re-rating potential versus Chroma.

  Comparison

  Goldman believes the AI/HPC market may gradually move toward a 50/50 share structure under customer dual-sourcing strategies.

  Risks

  Weaker AI/HPC demand, slower-than-expected SLT adoption in AI ASICs, and intensifying competition.

• GPTC (3131.TWO)

  Core beneficiary of advanced-packaging wet process equipment

  Strengths

  About 50% share of TSMC CoWoS wet cleaning equipment, near 100% share at ASE/SPIL, and the only supplier of TSMC SoIC wet cleaning equipment.

  Weaknesses

  Valuation depends on advanced packaging expansion and ASP uplift from greater technical complexity.

  Comparison

  Compared with ordinary equipment companies, GPTC benefits more clearly from rising complexity in SoIC, CPO, and FOPLP.

  Risks

  Weak AI/HPC demand, slower adoption of new advanced packaging technologies, and intensifying competition.

• All Ring (6187.TWO)

  Beneficiary of CPO and advanced-packaging equipment

  Strengths

  Near-100% market share in WoS underfill dispenser and TIM heat sink attach equipment, with upside from CPO coupling equipment and PLP opportunities.

  Weaknesses

  A rough comparison of disclosed price and target price suggests the target price is below the disclosed price, so the timing difference between valuation and rating should be monitored.

  Comparison

  Compared with the CoWoS cycle, the report argues that a shift from CoWoS to panel-level solutions may bring the next expansion cycle.

  Risks

  Slower advanced packaging expansion, delayed adoption of new packaging technologies, and intensifying competition.

Key data

• Roadshow coverageMore than 35 investorsFrom Goldman Sachs' recent European marketing trip.
• TSMC target priceNT$2,750; ADR US$55012-month target price, rated Buy on CL.
• Aspeed target priceNT$15,00012-month target price, rated Buy.
• Hon Precision target priceNT$5,70012-month target price, rated Buy.
• GPTC target priceNT$3,50012-month target price, rated Buy.
• All Ring target priceNT$80012-month target price, rated Buy.
• Aspeed market shareMore than 70% of the global BMC marketThe report identifies Aspeed as the largest BMC supplier.
• Hon Precision market shareOver 90% market share in FT handlers for AI/HPC applicationsSupports its test equipment beneficiary thesis.
• TSMC long-term gross margin viewLong-term GM maintained above 56%Goldman believes AI/HPC demand and rising silicon content support revenue growth.

Impact & implications

For portfolios, the report implies that AI semiconductor capital is not spreading to all related names, but continues to concentrate in structural winners believed to have technical barriers, clear TAM expansion, and visible earnings acceleration. Valuation is no longer being ignored, but as long as the growth narrative remains clear, TSMC, Aspeed, advanced-packaging equipment, and test-equipment leaders may still command premiums. If CPO enters a clearer adoption cycle, it could become a new upside catalyst for All Ring, Hon Precision, GPTC, and others; if adoption is delayed, valuation divergence may widen further.

Risks

• A slowdown in AI/HPC end-demand or investment could weaken semiconductor content growth and equipment orders.
• The timing of CPO adoption, customer readiness, and infrastructure changes remains unclear, which could delay earnings realization for related companies.
• Valuations for high-growth AI names are elevated, and valuation sensitivity could rise quickly if growth expectations are revised down.
• Advanced packaging expansion is affected by cleanroom constraints, technology migration, and the pace of customer capex.
• If Samsung or other competitors catch up in technology, execution, or pricing, TSMC and the industry's valuation premium could compress.
• Weak smartphone demand and rising memory prices may continue to pressure MediaTek's near-term sentiment.

What to watch

• Whether European and global capital continues to flow into a small number of AI structural winners.
• Whether TSMC's mature-node exits can smoothly translate into advanced packaging capacity expansion.
• Customer timelines, infrastructure readiness, and order visibility for large-scale CPO adoption.
• Aspeed AST2700 penetration, and the impact of AI servers and Agentic AI on BMC ASPs.
• Whether the market begins to reprice MediaTek's 2027 opportunity when its first ASIC project approaches mass production.
• Order trends and ASP trends at GPTC and All Ring in SoIC, FOPLP, PLP, and CPO-related equipment.
• Long-term share shifts between Hon Precision and Chroma in AI/HPC test equipment.