Qingming long weekend pressured new orders for China's EVs, with a few automakers bucking the trend

Overview

This is a short-term order-tracking report from Morgan Stanley on China's auto and shared mobility sector. The report focuses on channel feedback from March 30 to April 5 and points out that travel activity during the three-day Qingming long weekend disrupted store traffic and order placement cadence, causing weekly orders to weaken broadly across major EV OEMs. The author also notes that more than 40 new models are expected to launch around the Beijing Auto Show in April, which may push sales later in the month, so the weekly data should be viewed together with subsequent new-product launches and order recovery.

Core views

The core conclusion is that last week's order decline looks more like a short-term disturbance driven by the holiday and product-launch timing than evidence sufficient to confirm a sector trend reversal on its own. At the sector level, the report keeps the Asia Pacific auto industry at In-Line and notes that market positioning remains relatively light. At the company and brand level, XPeng saw a sharp improvement in orders driven by the 2026 MONA M03 launch, while Tesla China posted a modest gain; most other brands saw week-over-week declines, with Leapmotor, Xiaomi, NIO, and Aito showing relatively larger drops.

Analysis framework

The report uses channel feedback to track weekly new orders for major EV brands from March 30 to April 5 and compares them with the March 23 to March 29 order base on a week-over-week basis, while also referencing month-over-month changes, new model launches, destocking, and order backlogs to explain the performance differences across brands.

Methodology notes

• Channel trackingWeekly order momentum tracking

  Observe changes in new automaker orders through channel feedback

  The report assesses demand cadence from March 30 to April 5 based on channel feedback and compares it with the prior week's order range to identify the short-term impact of holidays, new product launches, and inventory adjustments on orders.

• Growth comparisonWoW and MoM order changes

  Week-over-week and month-over-month changes

  The report cites both WoW and MoM metrics; WoW is used to measure short-term order momentum, while MoM is used to judge whether orders remain above or below the prior month's pace.

• Industry ratingMorgan Stanley Industry View

  In-Line industry view

  In-Line means the analyst expects the covered industry's performance over the next 12-18 months to be broadly in line with the relevant broad market benchmark.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• BYD Company Limited (1211.HK/002594.SZ)

  Primary coverage and comparison reference

  Strengths

  The prior week's order base was high, and the Song Ultra fast-charging version drew market attention and contributed 6%-8% of new orders.

  Weaknesses

  Orders fell 18% week over week last week, indicating slower order momentum during the holiday period.

  Comparison

  The decline was smaller than NIO's, Aito's, Leapmotor's, and Xiaomi's, but weaker than XPeng's and Tesla China's.

  Risks

  If the decline is not just holiday noise but instead reflects weakening demand, it could affect April sales cadence and market sentiment.

• Li Auto (2015.HK/LI.O)

  Primary coverage and comparison reference

  Strengths

  i-series sales were broadly stable at 3.5-4k, and month-over-month orders were roughly flat.

  Weaknesses

  Orders declined 17% week over week, and the L series remains in a destocking phase ahead of the L9 facelift.

  Comparison

  The decline was similar to BYD's, clearly better than Leapmotor's and Xiaomi's, but weaker than XPeng's and Tesla China's.

  Risks

  Destocking ahead of the L series facelift may continue to weigh on near-term order performance.

• NIO (9866.HK/NIO.N)

  Primary coverage and comparison reference

  Strengths

  The upcoming NIO ES9 and Onvo L80 launches provide potential catalysts for future demand.

  Weaknesses

  Orders fell 29% week over week and 12% month over month, indicating weak near-term momentum.

  Comparison

  Performance was weaker than BYD, Li Auto, Geely Galaxy, and ZEEKR, but better than Leapmotor.

  Risks

  If the new launches do not translate effectively into orders, the uncertainty around demand recovery remains high.

• XPeng (9868.HK/XPEV.N)

  Primary coverage and comparison reference

  Strengths

  Orders rose 103% week over week and 76% month over month; the 2026 MONA M03 contributed more than 70% of order inflows, making this the standout positive case of the week.

  Weaknesses

  The improvement is highly dependent on the new model launch, and sustainability still needs follow-up validation.

  Comparison

  XPeng materially outperformed most peers among major EV brands, with only a few brands achieving positive growth.

  Risks

  Order releases may be concentrated in the initial launch phase, and growth could normalize if enthusiasm fades later.

• Tesla China

  Industry comparison reference

  Strengths

  Orders rose 6% week over week, maintaining growth while most brands declined.

  Weaknesses

  Month-over-month orders were broadly flat, and the increase was relatively modest.

  Comparison

  Performance was better than most Chinese EV brands, but the growth rate was clearly below XPeng's.

  Risks

  If industry price competition or demand volatility intensifies, this modest growth may be hard to sustain.

• Geely Automobile Holdings / Geely Galaxy (0175.HK)

  Industry comparison reference

  Strengths

  Orders declined only 10% week over week, making it relatively more resilient than most peers; several Galaxy models will launch in late April.

  Weaknesses

  Current orders are still weakening due to the holiday and new-product transition.

  Comparison

  The decline was smaller than BYD's, Li Auto's, NIO's, Aito's, Leapmotor's, ZEEKR's, and Xiaomi's.

  Risks

  If the new-model launch cadence is below expectations, it may weaken the late-April sales recovery.

• ZEEKR

  Industry comparison reference

  Strengths

  The 9X order backlog remains strong, and refundable 8X orders exceed 50k.

  Weaknesses

  Orders fell 19% week over week, and near-term new-order momentum remains weak.

  Comparison

  The decline was close to BYD's and Li Auto's, and better than NIO's, Aito's, Leapmotor's, and Xiaomi's.

  Risks

  The final conversion rate of refundable orders and the delivery cadence may affect actual sales realization.

• Xiaomi (1810.HK)

  Industry comparison reference

  Strengths

  Month-over-month growth remains strong at 210%, and YU7 orders are stable at 3-3.5k.

  Weaknesses

  The post-SU7-launch order surge is normalizing, and last week's orders fell 31% week over week.

  Comparison

  The near-term decline was larger than that of most peers, with only Leapmotor doing worse.

  Risks

  The pace of post-listing order normalization, delivery capability, and the timing of subsequent models are the main watch points.

Key data

• Tracking window2026-03-30至2026-04-05Used to assess new-order cadence during the three-day Qingming long weekend.
• Industry viewAsia Pacific Industry View In-LineThe report did not disclose any new stock rating or target price changes.
• Beijing Auto Show new models40+More than 40 new models will launch in April, which may push April sales later in the month.
• BYD order change-18% WoWThe prior week's orders were about 74-74.5k vehicles; month over month +22%; the Song Ultra fast-charging version contributed 6%-8% of last week's new orders.
• Li Auto order change-17% WoWThe prior week's orders were about 6.6-6.8k vehicles; month over month was broadly flat; the L series continued to destock ahead of the L9 facelift, and i-series orders were about 3.5-4k.
• NIO order change-29% WoWThe prior week's orders were about 7.5-7.7k vehicles; month over month -12%; the upcoming ES9 and Onvo L80 launches remain key watch items.
• XPeng order change+103% WoWThe prior week's orders were about 6.5-6.7k vehicles; month over month +76%; the 2026 MONA M03 contributed more than 70% of order inflows.
• Tesla China order change+6% WoWThe prior week's orders were about 8-8.2k vehicles; month over month was broadly flat.
• Aito order change-27% WoWThe prior week's orders were about 6.4-6.6k vehicles; month over month -15%; orders have retreated from the post-M6-launch peak.
• Leapmotor order change-46% WoWThe prior week's orders were about 20.7-20.9k vehicles; month over month +21%; orders nearly doubled after the A10 launch and then normalized.
• Geely Galaxy order change-10% WoWThe prior week's orders were about 19.5-19.7k vehicles; month over month +3%; the M7, E7, A7, Starshine 7, and Starship 7 will launch in late April.
• ZEEKR order change-19% WoWThe prior week's orders were about 7-7.2k vehicles; month over month +14%; the 9X order backlog remains strong, and refundable 8X orders exceed 50k.
• Xiaomi order change-31% WoWThe prior week's orders were about 13.5-13.7k vehicles; month over month +210%; new orders after the SU7 launch have normalized from their peak, while YU7 orders remain stable at 3-3.5k.

Impact & implications

In investment terms, the weekly order decline may weigh on market confidence in a near-term demand recovery, especially for brands that lack a new-product catalyst or whose orders have already come down from launch peaks. However, if new model launches after the Beijing Auto Show drive order recovery, the back-loaded April sales pattern could ease market concerns. Relative to peers, XPeng's MONA M03 and ZEEKR's order backlog show that new products or unfilled orders can still provide differentiated support at the stock level.

Risks

• Weekly channel order data may be affected by Qingming holiday travel disruptions and should not be taken as a standalone indicator of medium-term demand trends.
• Order peaks after new model launches may normalize quickly, leading to significant short-term volatility in the data.
• If April sales depend too heavily on month-end new products and auto show catalysts, intra-month delivery timing uncertainty may increase.
• Industry price competition, inventory adjustments, and consumer wait-and-see behavior may continue to affect order conversion.
• Morgan Stanley disclosed that it has or may have investment banking, market-making, shareholding, or other business relationships with some covered companies, and investors should treat this research as one factor among many rather than the sole basis for decisions.

What to watch

• Order conversion rates after the launch of more than 40 new models around the Beijing Auto Show.
• Whether sales in the second half of April release later in the month as the report expects.
• Whether XPeng's MONA M03 order inflow can be sustained beyond the initial launch period.
• Whether the Song Ultra fast-charging version at BYD contributes a larger share of new orders.
• Li Auto's order recovery after the L9 facelift and the completion of L-series destocking.
• Demand feedback after the launches of NIO ES9 and Onvo L80.
• The actual conversion of ZEEKR's 9X backlog and 8X refundable orders.
• After Xiaomi's SU7 orders normalize, the stability of YU7 orders and subsequent delivery performance.