LLY: Refined upward revision to full-year Foundayо estimates; GLP-1 prescriptions broadly stable

Overview

This report is Bernstein's company research and GLP-1 prescription data tracking on Eli Lilly & Co (LLY). It focuses on updated Q2 and FY2026 revenue estimates for Foundayо and tracks prescription share changes among Zepbound, Mounjaro, Foundayо, and Novo's Wegovy Pill, Wegovy pen, and Ozempic. Overall, GLP-1 prescription volume was broadly stable but slightly lower this week, while Lilly still held an advantage in both TRx and NBRx share.

Core views

The core view is that the GLP-1 market is still expanding, Lilly's portfolio maintains strong share, but Foundayо's early prescription ramp has come in below prior expectations. Bernstein estimates Foundayо Q2 revenue at about $126M and FY2026E revenue at about $1.336B; near-term data are affected by the Juneteenth holiday, IQVIA capture rate, patient activation, DTC advertising not yet being fully launched, the BRIDGE/BALANCE programs, and overseas approval progress. The report maintains an Outperform rating and a $1,300 price target on LLY.

Analysis framework

The report primarily relies on IQVIA weekly and daily prescription data, combined with pre-meeting discussions with management, channel price assumptions, and splits by dosage and payer channel, to build a bottom-up estimate of Foundayо revenue. Comparison dimensions include TRx, NRx, NBRx, four-week rolling YoY growth, market share, early post-launch prescription trajectories, daily-to-weekly conversion, and IQVIA capture-rate adjustments.

Methodology notes

• Prescription volume metricTRx

  Total prescriptions

  TRx counts all dispensed prescriptions, including both new and refill prescriptions, and is the top-level metric for observing total brand volume and share.

• Prescription volume metricNRx

  New prescriptions

  NRx counts new prescriptions dispensed by pharmacies, but may also include new prescription numbers issued after prior refill authorizations for existing patients are exhausted, so it is not equivalent to newly added patients.

• Prescription volume metricNBRx

  New-to-brand prescriptions

  NBRx counts only patients who have not used the brand in the past 12 months, including both treatment initiations and patients switching from or adding other brands in the same class, so it better reflects true customer acquisition.

• Data quality adjustmentIQVIA capture rate

  IQVIA capture rate

  The report notes that Foundayо's quarter-to-date IQVIA capture rate is about 90%, while Wegovy Pill may be lower; differences in capture rates affect comparability of early launch trajectories across brands.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• LLY / Eli Lilly & Co

  Core covered company and primary beneficiary asset

  Strengths

  Zepbound share is stable, Mounjaro continues to grow, Lilly leads Novo in both TRx and NBRx share, and Bernstein maintains an Outperform rating.

  Weaknesses

  Foundayо's early prescription ramp is slower than expected, and revenue estimates are sensitive to capture rates, ad launch, and payer coverage.

  Comparison

  Versus Novo, Lilly's TRx share is 60.3% and NBRx share is 53.0%; however, Wegovy Pill's early NBRx and TRx trajectories are stronger than Foundayо's.

  Risks

  BRIDGE/BALANCE execution, lower commercial pricing, delays in overseas approvals, IQVIA data noise, and insufficient patient education may affect delivery.

• Novo Nordisk A/S

  Main competitor and GLP-1 market benchmark asset

  Strengths

  Wegovy Pill's early launch TRx and NBRx scale exceed Foundayо's, while Ozempic and Wegovy still contribute significant share.

  Weaknesses

  Novo's overall TRx share is below Lilly's, Ozempic's four-week YoY growth remains negative, and potentially lower capture rates for Wegovy Pill complicate data comparability.

  Comparison

  Novo's TRx share is 39.7%, below Lilly's 60.3%; Wegovy Pill TRx this week was about 152k, significantly above Foundayо's 20,593.

  Risks

  A slowdown in Wegovy Pill growth, share declines, or IQVIA capture-rate bias could all change the competitive interpretation.

Key data

• Total weekly prescriptions2.58MFor the week ended June 19, down 0.27% WoW, an absolute decline of about 7k.
• sema+tirz four-week YoY growth35.1%Below last week's 35.7%, indicating a slight slowdown in overall volume growth.
• Lilly TRx share60.3%Split into Zepbound 26.8%, Mounjaro 32.7%, and Foundayо 0.8%.
• Novo TRx share39.7%Split into Wegovy pen 12.8%, Ozempic 20.8%, and Wegovy Pill 6.2%.
• Foundayо week 11 TRx20,593Down 1,055 WoW, a decline of about 4.9%, which the report believes may have been affected by the Juneteenth holiday.
• Wegovy Pill TRx this week152kDown 9.6k WoW, or about 5.9%, in launch week 22.
• Lilly NBRx share53.0%Above last week's 52.0%, indicating that new-to-brand prescription share still tilts toward Lilly.
• Foundayо Q2 revenue estimate$126MBased on estimates of channel prescription splits, blended pricing, and stocking in the US and ex-US.
• Foundayо FY2026E revenue estimate$1.336BThe table shows US revenue of about $1.016B and ex-US revenue of about $320M.
• LLY rating and price targetOutperform / $1,300Current price is $1,208.12, implying about 7.6% upside to the target price.

Impact & implications

For LLY, stable shares for Zepbound and Mounjaro support the GLP-1 franchise, but the slower-than-expected early ramp of Foundayо makes the full-year revenue outlook more dependent on second-half patient education, DTC advertising, Medicare and commercial payer coverage, and overseas approvals. If Foundayо new-patient starts inflect over the coming months, it could strengthen the narrative of Lilly's expansion in oral GLP-1; if capture rates, pricing, or patient conversion remain unstable, short-term sales visibility could be pressured.

Risks

• Foundayо actual prescription data cover only the first 11 weeks after launch, so the sample period is short and holidays and weekly volatility amplify estimation error.
• IQVIA capture rates for Foundayо and Wegovy Pill may differ, creating data-definition risk in cross-brand comparisons.
• DTC advertising and patient activation have not yet fully launched; if physician education or patient awareness improves more slowly than expected, the prescription inflection point may be delayed.
• The BRIDGE/BALANCE programs, Medicare, commercial insurance coverage, and changes in cash-pay pricing will affect net pricing and revenue realization.
• Overseas regulatory approvals, especially the pace in early markets such as the UK, may affect Q4 and full-year ex-US revenue.
• The EU CHMP did not approve the standalone CV risk-reduction indication for Mounjaro, highlighting continued uncertainty around regulatory label expansion.

What to watch

• The next batch of IQVIA weekly TRx, NRx, and lagged NBRx data, especially whether Foundayо resumes growth.
• Whether the conversion relationship between Foundayо daily data and weekly data becomes more stable.
• Whether Foundayо new-patient starts inflect after Q3 DTC advertising and fuller patient activation begin.
• Changes in Medicare dose pricing and channel mix after the BRIDGE/BALANCE programs are implemented.
• Whether commercial pricing continues to decline after broader commercial coverage expansion, and the impact on blended average price.
• Approval and stocking pace in the UK, UAE, and other ex-US markets.
• Subsequent LLY earnings updates on Foundayо patient counts, capture rates, and full-year guidance.