Kelun Biotech: sac-TMT maintains sales guidance, while global 1L NSCLC development and 2027 data readouts form the core highlights

Overview

This report summarizes key points from Kelun Biotech management’s communication at Goldman Sachs China Healthcare Corporate Day 2026. The core content centers on sac-TMT commercialization progress, the global development strategy for 1L NSCLC PD-L1 1-49%, and the cadence of clinical data readouts from 2H26 through 2027. The report maintains a Buy rating on Kelun Biotech and a 12-month target price of HK$561.40.

Core views

Goldman Sachs believes the investment thesis for Kelun Biotech continues to be driven by sac-TMT: on one hand, after NRDL coverage of 3L+ TNBC and 3L+ EGFRmut NSCLC starting in January 2026, sac-TMT sales are progressing in line with existing FY26 guidance; on the other hand, the necessity of global phase 3 development for the 1L NSCLC PD-L1 1-49% population is rising, and the choice of combination regimen will affect the development path and timeline. The report also emphasizes that multiple global and China phase 3 as well as early-stage ADC project readouts in 2027 are expected to provide continued catalysts.

Analysis framework

The report is primarily based on statements from company management at Goldman Sachs China Healthcare Corporate Day 2026, combined with analysis of existing clinical trial progress, NRDL coverage, indication expansion, global partnership development pathways, and a risk-adjusted DCF valuation framework. For the key asset sac-TMT, the analysis focuses on sales delivery, indication coverage, first-line NSCLC treatment combination strategy, phase 3 data maturity, and the timing of future data readouts.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodologyrisk-adjusted DCF

  Risk-adjusted discounted cash flow

  The target price is based on a risk-adjusted DCF, assuming an 11% discount rate, a 3% terminal growth rate, and PoS adjusted according to industry-average success rates at different clinical stages and existing clinical data.

• Factor frameworkGS Factor Profile

  Growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite percentile

  The Goldman Sachs Factor Profile compares a stock relative to the market and industry peers through growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite indicators.

• M&A frameworkM&A rank

  Probability score of being a potential acquisition target

  Goldman Sachs uses M&A ranks from 1 to 3 to assess the probability that a covered company becomes an acquisition target; when ranked 1 or 2, takeover factors may be incorporated into the target price.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Kelun Biotech (6990.HK)

  Company covered by the report

  Strengths

  Owns core ADC assets such as sac-TMT, has already obtained NRDL coverage in 3L+ TNBC and 3L+ EGFRmut NSCLC, and has multiple global and China clinical data catalysts.

  Weaknesses

  Its commercialization manufacturing and sales track record remains limited, and multiple new indications and future ADC projects still face R&D uncertainty.

  Comparison

  The report places Kelun Biotech within Goldman Sachs’ China biotech coverage universe alongside companies such as 3SBio, CSPC Pharma, Hengrui Medicine, Innovent Biologics, and Zai Lab.

  Risks

  Key risks include failure in new indications and follow-on ADC R&D, intensifying competition in the ADC field, insufficient commercialization manufacturing and sales execution, talent competition challenges, and alliance collaboration risks.

• sac-TMT

  Core ADC asset and main growth driver

  Strengths

  FY26 sales guidance is maintained unchanged, with NRDL-covered indications driving growth; it also has global phase 3 development potential in the 1L NSCLC PD-L1 1-49% population.

  Weaknesses

  The global regimen for 1L NSCLC still needs to determine whether to combine with PD-1 or PD-1/VEGF; if PD-1/VEGF is adopted, an additional global phase 1/2 trial may be needed.

  Comparison

  Management mentioned that MRK is considering PD-1 innovation and PD-1/VEGF-related innovations such as ivonescimab HARMONi-6 in influencing regimen selection.

  Risks

  Clinical data missing expectations, delays in the development path, rapid advancement of competing therapies, and the potential impact of industry anti-corruption measures on sales cadence.

Key data

• RatingBuyThe report explicitly states that it maintains a Buy rating on Kelun Biotech.
• 12-month target priceHK$561.40The target price is based on the risk-adjusted DCF method.
• Disclosed priceHK$412.60The Kelun Biotech price listed in the company-specific disclosure.
• sac-TMT FY26 sales guidanceDoubling sales versus FY25Management indicated sales progress is in line with prior guidance, mainly driven by NRDL-covered 3L+ TNBC and 3L+ EGFRmut NSCLC.
• Key 2H26 dataph3 OptiTROP-Lung06Management said the data are not mature enough for a regular ESMO26 abstract submission and is considering an LBA submission.
• 2027 global ph3 readoutsTroFuse-005, TroFuse-015, TroFuse-004, TroFuse-010These cover 2L+ endometrial cancer, 3L+ GEA, 3L+ EGFRmut NSCLC, and chemo-naive HR+/HER2-BC, respectively.

Impact & implications

If sac-TMT delivers on FY26 sales and the global development path for 1L NSCLC becomes clearer, visibility into Kelun Biotech’s commercialization capability and global indication expansion will improve. Multiple global phase 3 and China clinical data readouts in 2027 could become catalysts for valuation re-rating, but combination therapy selection, data maturity, the competitive landscape, and partner execution remain key variables.

Risks

• Risk of R&D failure in new indications and future ADC assets.
• Competition in the ADC field continues to intensify, which may compress clinical and commercialization opportunities.
• Commercialization manufacturing and sales track record is limited, and execution capability still needs to be validated.
• Intensifying talent competition may affect R&D and commercialization progress.
• Execution, profit-sharing, or development-path risks related to alliances with partners.
• The potential impact of industry-wide anti-corruption actions since 2026 on sales cadence still requires further observation.

What to watch

• More information on the impact of industry anti-corruption measures on sac-TMT sales after July 2026.
• The data maturity of ph3 OptiTROP-Lung06 and whether it will be submitted as an ESMO26 LBA.
• Whether global ph3 for 1L NSCLC PD-L1 1-49% will be initiated, and whether the regimen will combine with PD-1 or PD-1/VEGF.
• The impact of LM-299 China ph1 data on confidence in the PD-1/VEGF combination path.
• Global ph3 data readouts in 2027 such as TroFuse-005, TroFuse-015, TroFuse-004, and TroFuse-010.
• China Lung05 OS, Lung06, Breast03, as well as the first clinical data for SKB571 and SKB410.