The US refined copper tariff decision will be a key event for copper prices in H2 2026
AI summary card
The US refined copper tariff decision will be a key event for copper prices in H2 2026
Morgan Stanley believes that if the US announces in advance a 15% refined copper import tariff effective from January 2027, it will lift COMEX and LME copper prices and tighten copper markets outside the United States; if tariffs are ruled out, the halt of excess US imports and stockpiling demand would be bearish.
- The tariff decision is expected to be updated at some point in H2 2026 after June 30, 2026, but the report believes it is unlikely to be announced directly on June 30 or July 1.
- The most bullish scenario is advance notice of a 15% refined copper import tariff effective from January 2027, which would encourage copper to flow into the US, tighten supply outside the United States, and potentially push the LME nearby-forward curve into backwardation.
- The most bearish scenario is the complete removal of refined copper tariffs. The report estimates that US excess imports year-to-date are about 260 kt, annualized equivalent to roughly 2.6% of global demand; if this demand stops, it would weigh on both major copper benchmarks.
- The market currently implies through forward-curve spreads about a 43% probability of a 15% tariff taking effect by January 2027, and about a 73% probability by December 2027.
Report interpretation
Overview
This report conducts a scenario analysis on whether the United States will impose import tariffs on refined copper. The core variable is whether the US announces a 15% refined copper import tariff effective January 1, 2027, which could potentially rise to 30% in 2028. The report notes that COMEX is the US deliverable copper benchmark and should theoretically reflect tariff costs; if tariffs are implemented, COMEX’s premium versus LME could widen. Current expectations of potential US tariffs have already prompted market participants to ship copper to the US in advance, creating inventory and spread distortions.
Core views
The report divides the outcomes into three categories: first, if tariffs are announced in advance, copper flows to the US would accelerate, markets outside the United States would tighten, both COMEX and LME would be bullish, and COMEX could move toward roughly a 15% premium over LME; second, if tariffs are completely ruled out, excess US imports and stockpiling demand could stop, COMEX could return to parity with LME or even slightly below, and the LME forward curve could also loosen; third, if the decision is delayed, the current situation would largely continue, but if the market interprets this as a lower probability of tariffs, it could be mildly negative for copper prices.
Analysis framework
The report uses policy scenario analysis, COMEX-LME forward-curve spreads, US import and inventory estimates, global supply-demand balance, and a macro risk-appetite framework to assess the impact on copper prices. The focus is not on giving a single directional forecast, but on identifying the transmission paths through which different policy outcomes affect copper prices, cross-market spreads, forward curves, and physical flows.
Methodology notes
The policy outcome and announcement timing jointly determine price direction
The report distinguishes among three scenarios—advance tariff announcement, tariffs ruled out, and delayed decision—and emphasizes that the longer the advance notice period, the more time the market has to front-load copper shipments to the US, strengthening the bullish impact on prices and spreads.
Use COMEX and LME forward spreads to infer the market’s probability pricing of tariff implementation
The report says the market is pricing about a 43% probability of a 15% tariff being implemented before January 2027, and about a 73% probability by December 2027, indicating that tariff risk is already partly reflected in the curve.
Front-loaded imports change short-term regional supply-demand balance
The report estimates US excess imports year-to-date at about 260 kt, annualized at roughly 2.6% of global demand; US inventories already exceed one year of normal refined copper import coverage, and if stockpiling demand stops, copper prices and forward curves could come under pressure.
The macro environment can amplify or offset the impact of tariff scenarios
The report notes that copper prices have recently been affected by rising expectations of Fed rate hikes in 2026, a stronger DXY, and demand concerns; COMEX copper tends to outperform when risk appetite rises and underperform when risk appetite falls.
Asset mapping & comparison
Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).
- COMEX CopperUS deliverable benchmark, most directly reflects expectations for US import tariffs
- Strengths
- If a 15% tariff is announced in advance, COMEX could move toward roughly a 15% premium over LME and outperform during the tariff-expectation phase.
- Weaknesses
- If tariffs are ruled out, COMEX could return to parity with LME or even slightly below; if front-loaded import incentives disappear after tariff implementation, excess imports could decline.
- Comparison
- Compared with LME, it is more affected by US policy and US inventories; it tends to outperform when risk appetite rises and underperform when risk appetite falls.
- Risks
- Policy delay or removal, overly high COMEX net long positioning, weaker US demand, and declining macro risk appetite.
- LME CopperGlobal copper benchmark, reflects supply-demand tightness outside the United States
- Strengths
- If the US announces tariffs in advance and draws copper into the US, markets outside the United States would tighten, and LME prices and nearby spreads could rise.
- Weaknesses
- If tariffs are ruled out, the roughly 2.6% of global demand previously flowing to the US could disappear, leaving more metal available for non-US markets, and the LME forward curve could loosen.
- Comparison
- Compared with COMEX, it is more representative of global and ex-US supply-demand conditions; under tariff scenarios it may rise but underperform COMEX.
- Risks
- China demand concerns, a stronger dollar, higher rate expectations, and the end of US excess imports.
- Physical Refined Copper and US InventoriesTariff expectations affect physical flows through front-loaded imports and inventory accumulation
- Strengths
- Advance notice of tariffs would strengthen the incentive to ship to the US, supporting import volumes and inventory building in the short term.
- Weaknesses
- US inventories already exceed one year of normal import coverage, and once tariffs are actually implemented, paying the tariff would reduce the economics of continuing excess imports.
- Comparison
- Compared with price assets, physical inventories are better able to verify whether tariff expectations are translating into real procurement and shipping behavior.
- Risks
- Tariffs not materializing, excessive inventories, falling US import demand, and inventory shifting from COMEX to LME US warehouses.
- Broad Base MetalsAffected jointly by the copper tariff event, the dollar, rates, and demand expectations
- Strengths
- If copper tariffs push copper prices higher, they may improve risk appetite for some base metals.
- Weaknesses
- The report’s weekly review shows base metals broadly weakening, with demand concerns and macro pressure still weighing on the sector.
- Comparison
- Copper’s policy event is more prominent, while aluminum and steel are already facing a 50% tariff backdrop, and nickel, iron ore, and coal are more driven by their own supply-demand factors.
- Risks
- Fed rate hike expectations, rising DXY, slowing Asian demand and construction activity, and supply-chain or policy disruptions.
Key data
- Potential Tariff Plan15% from January 1, 2027, potentially rising to 30% in 2028The report assumes the imminent decision is whether to implement a 15% refined copper import tariff, rather than discussing other tariff rates or implementation dates.
- Related Tariffs Already Implemented50%Import tariffs on aluminum, steel, and most semi-finished copper products and copper derivatives are already at 50%.
- Market-Implied ProbabilityAbout 43% before January 2027; about 73% before December 2027Based on forward-curve spreads, the market has already partly priced in the risk of a 15% tariff being implemented.
- Current COMEX Premium vs. LMEAbout 6%This premium is already encouraging market participants to ship copper to the US in advance.
- US Excess Imports Year-to-DateAbout 260 ktOn an annualized basis, this is roughly equivalent to 2.6% of global copper demand.
- US Inventory CoverageMore than one year of normal refined copper importsThe report estimates that the US has already accumulated substantial import inventories; if tariffs are actually implemented, the financial incentive for continued excess imports may decline.
- Price Support if Tariffs Are Ruled OutAbout $12,000The report believes that even if ruling out tariffs is bearish, structural supply issues and anticipated deficits may still provide support around this level.
- Recent Copper Price PerformanceCopper fell 0.4% on the week; LME and COMEX fell 3.3% and 5.3%, respectively, from Tuesday’s highsMainly affected by demand concerns and macro pressure.
- Weekly Base Metals BackdropMost base metals weakened, except zincDXY rose 0.9%, and after strong nonfarm payrolls data the market repriced one US rate hike this year.
Impact & implications
For investors, the tariff outcome will affect regional copper flows, the COMEX-LME spread, the LME forward curve, and the absolute level of copper prices. An advance tariff announcement is more likely to bring short-term price gains and tighter supply outside the United States; ruling out tariffs could cause US stockpiling demand to fade and release supply pressure. Since COMEX net long positioning is already at historical highs, any bearish policy or macro shock could amplify price pullbacks.
Risks
- The US fully rules out refined copper tariffs, causing excess US imports and stockpiling demand to stop.
- The tariff decision is delayed and interpreted by the market as a lower probability of implementation, which could be mildly negative for copper prices.
- If the announcement comes close to the implementation date or the implementation date is brought forward, the window for front-loaded shipments shortens, making the bullish impact weaker than in the advance-notice scenario.
- Rising Fed rate hike expectations, a stronger DXY, and lower risk appetite could weigh on copper prices.
- COMEX net long positions are already at historical highs; if policy or macro signals weaken, prices may become more sensitive to liquidation.
- China demand concerns or a global demand slowdown could offset support from tighter supply and tariff expectations.
What to watch
- After June 30 or July 1, 2026, updated policy remarks following the US Commerce Secretary’s submission to the President of an updated domestic copper market assessment.
- Whether the Trump administration announces refined copper import tariffs in H2 2026, the timing of the announcement, and whether advance notice is provided.
- Whether the COMEX-LME spread continues to move toward the 15% tariff level.
- Whether LME nearby spreads and the forward curve tighten and shift into backwardation.
- Whether US refined copper imports, inventory coverage, and front-loaded shipments continue to rise.
- Changes in forward-curve pricing for the probability of tariffs taking effect by January 2027 and December 2027.
- Fed rate hike expectations, DXY trends, risk appetite, and changes in COMEX net long positioning.