China’s April export growth climbed another notch, with technology and autos remaining the main supports

Overview

This report evaluates China’s April 2026 import-export data. UBS notes that year-on-year export growth accelerated again to 14.1%, with month-on-month growth after seasonal and moving-holiday adjustments at about 2.4%, reversing March's near-1% contraction. Although three-month month-over-month export momentum declined from 6.2% to 4.6%, it remains in a strong range, and export values reached a new historical high.

Core views

The central view is that China’s export momentum remained robust at the start of 2Q26, with technology and autos still driving recent export strength, while non-technology and non-auto exports also rebounded month-on-month in April. The strong year-on-year growth in exports to the United States more likely reflects a low base and a mild recovery after tariff easing; exports to the EU, ASEAN, BRI economies, and North Asia show broader month-on-month improvement. Strong exports can provide a cushion for China’s overall growth and may reduce the need to immediately launch additional large-scale stimulus on policy.

Analysis framework

The report mainly uses year-on-year growth, seasonally adjusted month-over-month changes, three-month month-over-month momentum, regional split, product split, and import volume-price structure to judge external trade trends. On the export side, it focuses on comparing the United States, EU, ASEAN, BRI economies and North Asia; on the product side, it focuses on semiconductors, integrated circuits, autos, EVs and other products; on the import side, it focuses on goods, IT components, ADPs, crude oil, natural gas, iron ore, and copper categories.

Methodology notes

• Macro trade analysisCombining year-on-year and seasonally adjusted month-over-month measures

  Track both year-on-year growth and seasonally adjusted monthly month-over-month changes simultaneously

  Year-on-year figures are used to assess the strength of growth versus the same period last year, while seasonally adjusted month-over-month changes identify the latest monthly momentum, helping avoid misreading trends driven only by base effects or calendar effects.

• Export momentum analysisThree-month month-over-month momentum

  3m/3m seasonally adjusted export momentum

  The report uses three-month month-over-month momentum to measure smoother short-term trends; in April this metric declined from 6.2% to 4.6%, but still indicates strong export momentum.

• Structural decompositionDestination and product-dimension decomposition

  Break down growth by export destination and product category

  The report identifies growth sources through regional and product decompositions, noting that technology and autos remain the main contributors to recent strong exports, with non-technology and non-auto products also showing month-over-month improvement.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• China macroeconomy

  Export resilience supports growth

  Strengths

  Export levels reached a new high, momentum at the start of 2Q26 remains strong, and the trade surplus has widened.

  Weaknesses

  External uncertainty is elevated, and some year-on-year improvement is affected by low-base effects.

  Comparison

  April's export performance was significantly better than March, and above both market and UBS expectations.

  Risks

  Energy shocks spilling into global trade, renewed tariff escalations, and slower external demand.

• Technology exports and AI supply chain

  One of the core drivers of recent export growth

  Strengths

  Technology exports continue to expand month-on-month, integrated circuit exports rose 100% year-on-year, and IT component imports remain strong.

  Weaknesses

  After faster prior growth, some monthly growth rates may normalize.

  Comparison

  Technology products are clearly performing better than most consumer goods exports.

  Risks

  A global technology slowdown, supply-chain constraints, geopolitical risks, and trade controls.

• Automobiles and EV exports

  An important contributor to export growth

  Strengths

  Automobiles and auto parts still maintain high year-on-year growth, and auto exports remain relatively strong versus long-term trends.

  Weaknesses

  The value of auto exports in April slowed slightly after earlier expansion.

  Comparison

  Automobiles and high-tech products jointly led recent export growth, clearly stronger than other products.

  Risks

  Overseas trade barriers, price competition, and subsidy and regulatory changes.

• Energy and commodity imports

  Reflects external energy shocks and changing import composition

  Strengths

  Overall import levels remain relatively high, and the report does not interpret slower iron ore and copper imports as a sign of weakening domestic demand.

  Weaknesses

  Crude oil and natural gas import volumes continue to decline, with a more pronounced drop in natural gas.

  Comparison

  Import value growth for goods is more affected by price and base effects, while energy import volumes showed declines.

  Risks

  Oil-shock spillovers linked to the Strait of Hormuz, energy-price volatility, and global shipping and trade disruptions.

Key data

• April export year-on-year growth14.1%Above the prior figure of 2.5%, market expectation of 8.4%, and UBS expectation of 12%.
• April seasonally adjusted month-over-month exportsabout 2.4%March showed a contraction near 1%, and April improved clearly.
• Three-month month-over-month export momentum4.6%Lower than the previous 6.2%, but still remains strong.
• Exports to the United States year-on-year11.3%Mainly influenced by a mild rebound after a low base in April last year and temporary tariff easing.
• April import year-on-year growth25.3%Below March’s 27.8%.
• April trade surplusUS$85 billionHigher than March’s US$51 billion; the report says trade data appear to be normalizing from early-year calendar-effect noise.
• Integrated circuit exports year-on-year100.0%Highlights strong technology exports and supports the view that China’s integration into the AI supply chain is deepening.
• IT component imports year-on-year50.8%Consistent with the resilience of technology-related exports.

Impact & implications

In 1Q26, exports were already an important pillar of China’s growth, and the continued strength in April further reinforced growth resilience. If exports continue on a high single-digit year-on-year path in 2Q26, policymakers may gain more time to monitor external developments, reducing the urgency for additional large-scale short-term stimulus. At the same time, strong technology exports and IT component imports suggest China’s participation in AI-related supply chains may continue to rise.

Risks

• Energy shocks could spill over into global trade and create downside risk to China’s exports.
• If tariffs or trade frictions escalate again, improvements in exports to the United States may not sustain.
• If the technology cycle rolls over, the current export strength driven by technology and autos may weaken.
• If declines in crude oil and natural gas imports continue to expand, market concerns about supply-chain and production costs may rise.
• Some high year-on-year growth is driven by low-base effects and does not fully reflect an equally large improvement in real demand.

What to watch

• Whether overall exports in 2Q26 can sustain a high single-digit year-on-year growth path.
• Whether exports to the United States continue to improve after the low-base effect fades.
• Whether trade data related to integrated circuits, IT components, and the AI supply chain remain strong.
• The sustainability of auto and EV exports under foreign trade barriers and price competition.
• How energy-shock effects linked to the Strait of Hormuz impact global trade, shipping, and China’s energy imports.
• How policymakers balance export resilience with external uncertainty, especially whether they delay or reduce large-scale stimulus.