Data Center Expansion Faces Policy and Community Resistance; Power Access Becomes the Key Divider
AI summary card
Data Center Expansion Faces Policy and Community Resistance; Power Access Becomes the Key Divider
Morgan Stanley believes that stricter data center interconnection approvals and cost allocation will delay some projects, while benefiting companies with established power access, on-site generation, or rapid power-delivery capabilities.
- Texas is reviewing data center projects in the ERCOT interconnection process; pending applications exceed 474 GW, of which approximately 90% are related to data centers.
- Virginia's Rider T1 order advances the “cost causer pays” principle, requiring large new loads to bear more direct responsibility for the costs of dedicated transmission facilities.
- In ERCOT Batch Zero, projects designated as Base Load are closer to receiving an interconnection green light; Studied Load projects face upgrade costs, capacity uncertainty, and longer study periods.
- The report favors CIFR, GLXY, and VST, and believes SEI, BE, and INIO can benefit from rising demand for on-site power.
- The report forecasts a 38 GW US data center power shortfall during 2026-2028; even including rapid-power solutions, a 1-11 GW shortfall may remain.
Report interpretation
Overview
This report updates the policy and community resistance faced by data centers in Texas, Virginia, and Ohio, and assesses implications for utilities, independent power producers, Powered Shell Providers, and colocation data centers through expert interviews. The core conclusion is that opposition has evolved from a public-relations issue into a project-development constraint, and political and community risk must be incorporated into project underwriting alongside land, power, and labor.
Core views
Data center demand has not disappeared, but risks around interconnection timing, cost allocation, and site selection have increased. ERCOT's Texas review is more of a near-term timing disruption for high-quality projects than a contraction in demand; Base Load qualification could become a near-term catalyst for Powered Shell Providers. Meanwhile, grid uncertainty reinforces the investment case for on-site generation and “time-to-power” solutions. Large colocation operators are relatively more resilient due to their scale, critical-infrastructure positioning, and community-engagement track record, though they may still face the risk of capacity shifting to lower-friction regions or overseas markets.
Analysis framework
The report combines state-level policy updates, the ERCOT Batch Zero interconnection process, expert interviews, project-development constraint analysis, and supply-demand gap estimates to compare the impact of different power-access statuses and power-supply pathways on relevant stocks and industries.
Methodology notes
Treating community and political resistance as development constraints
The report argues that project assessments should consider political risk alongside traditional development factors such as land, power, and labor, and distinguish water, emissions, and land issues that may be mitigated through engineering design from social opposition that is more difficult to resolve.
Base Load and Studied Load classifications
Base Load projects are viewed as demand with more mature commitments and study foundations, placing them closer to approved interconnection; Studied Load projects must undergo system-upgrade studies, with both allocated capacity and timing uncertain.
A long-term lease value framework for Powered Shell Providers
The framework assumes a 15-year lease, a 15% return on capital expenditure, and $15 per watt of equity value creation to assess the value of Powered Shell Providers with power resources transitioning to high-performance-computing data centers.
Asset mapping & comparison
Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).
- CIFRThe report's preferred ERCOT Batch Zero beneficiary
- Strengths
- The report expects its approximately 2 GW interconnection application may receive Base Load designation, helping advance data center projects.
- Weaknesses
- Value realization depends on interconnection qualification, project execution, and data center lease completion.
- Comparison
- Relative to peers with unclear interconnection eligibility, the report believes it has greater Base Load certainty.
- Risks
- Review delays, weaker-than-expected qualification outcomes, construction financing, and customer-contracting risks.
- GLXYA beneficiary of the Powered Shell Providers theme
- Strengths
- The report believes it may receive a favorable Batch Zero notification and benefit from converting power-access resources to data center use.
- Weaknesses
- Actual interconnection capacity and timing of conversion remain uncertain.
- Comparison
- Along with CIFR, it is listed as one of the covered companies most likely to receive a positive notification.
- Risks
- If classified as Studied Load, it may face lengthy studies, upgrade expenditures, and capacity uncertainty.
- VSTBeneficiary of rising ERCOT power prices
- Strengths
- A larger Base Load project scale can confirm power demand, and the report believes it is best positioned to benefit from higher ERCOT forward power prices.
- Weaknesses
- Near-term forward power prices have weakened due to uncertainty around project timing.
- Comparison
- The report identifies it as a more direct long-term beneficiary of ERCOT power prices than CEG and NRG.
- Risks
- Data center project delays, insufficient demand realization, and power prices failing to rise to levels that incentivize new supply.
- SEI / BE / INIOBeneficiaries of on-site power solutions
- Strengths
- Grid-interconnection uncertainty may encourage data centers to adopt on-site generation or supplemental power solutions.
- Weaknesses
- Demand conversion still depends on project economics, equipment delivery, and regulatory permits.
- Comparison
- Compared with projects solely dependent on grid interconnection, on-site power can shorten the time required to obtain power.
- Risks
- Equipment supply, fuel costs, environmental permits, and customer capital-expenditure constraints.
- EQIX / DLR / CSQRColocation data center operators
- Strengths
- Scale, critical-infrastructure positioning, and community-engagement track records provide relative protection; EQIX and DLR have accelerated development and raised capital-expenditure guidance.
- Weaknesses
- Political resistance may alter the geographic allocation of incremental capacity.
- Comparison
- The report considers this group more defensive than smaller or greenfield project developers.
- Risks
- Capacity shifting to lower-friction US regions or international markets could constrain revenue growth and development returns.
Key data
- Pending Texas interconnection requestsMore than 474 GWThe state government said approximately 90% are data center-related.
- Potential delay for high-quality ERCOT projects1-3 monthsThe report views this as a temporary delay, while the April 9, 2027 study-results deadline remains intact.
- Large loads preliminarily qualifying for Batch ZeroApproximately 205 GWSubject to confirmed financial guarantees.
- Forecast US data center power shortfall38 GWThe report's forecast for 2026-2028; even with rapid-power solutions included, the gap could remain 1-11 GW.
- ERCOT forward power prices versus the incentive level for new baseload generationApproximately $50/MWh versus approximately $95+/MWhThe report believes current forward prices are about half the level needed to incentivize new baseload generation.
- Estimated monthly increase for Virginia residential Rider T1 customersApproximately $0.94After adjustment to transmission-cost allocation, this is below the previous estimate of approximately $2.90.
Impact & implications
For utilities and independent power producers, project delays may reduce near-term realization of electricity demand and expectations for higher capital expenditure, though near-term EBITDA risk is limited for hedged generators. For Powered Shell Providers, Base Load designation can validate grid access and customer demand, improving expectations for lease transactions to close. For on-site power companies, prolonged interconnection uncertainty expands the potential market for rapid-power solutions such as gas turbines, fuel cells, data centers adjacent to nuclear plants, and conversion of existing Bitcoin sites.
Risks
- Community opposition, local moratoriums, and stricter zoning rules may extend development timelines or limit project scale.
- Large loads may bear more dedicated and upstream transmission costs, potentially compressing project returns.
- ERCOT Batch Zero Base Load and Studied Load classification results may fall short of market expectations.
- Data center demand may shift to lower-density, lower-friction US regions or overseas markets.
- On-site generation solutions still face equipment-supply, fuel, emissions, and permitting risks.
What to watch
- ERCOT notifications for Batch Zero projects and classification results to be released no later than September 2, 2026.
- Project remediation of dynamic-model or data deficiencies by August 31, 2026.
- Capacity allocations and commercial-operation timelines disclosed in ERCOT's April 9, 2027 study reports.
- The duration of the Texas review and developers' responses to new disclosure, collateral, and infrastructure-cost requirements.
- Virginia's final treatment of upstream transmission costs and GS-5 large-load tariffs.
- Whether more states introduce moratoriums, cost-allocation measures, or local-benefit requirements, and corporate adoption of brownfield siting and on-site power.