NEV Orders Diverge in First Week of June: Geely and Tesla See MoM Growth

Overview

This is Deutsche Bank's weekly report on China's NEV demand leading indicators, focusing on new order performance of major NEV passenger vehicle manufacturers during the first week of June 2026 (June 1-7). The report tracks the absolute values, MoM, and YoY changes in weekly new orders for nine key automakers—BYD, Geely, SERES, Leapmotor, Tesla, NIO, Li Auto, Xiaomi, and XPeng—via charts, aiming to provide investors with high-frequency demand signals ahead of monthly delivery data.

Core views

New orders across automakers showed significant divergence in the first week of June. Geely Auto (including Zeekr and Galaxy) and Tesla were the only two automakers to achieve positive MoM growth that week, recording 24,800 units (+12% MoM) and 14,200 units (+1% MoM) respectively, with Tesla also maintaining robust 18% YoY growth. Leading automaker BYD recorded 47,700 new orders for the week; while still ranking first, this represented a slight 2% MoM decline and a 36% YoY drop, reflecting pressure from a high base in the same period last year. Among emerging EV makers, NIO secured 28,000 new orders; despite a 28% MoM pullback, YoY growth surged 419%, reflecting a low-base effect and improved product cycle. SERES (primarily AITO brand) recorded 24,200 new orders, down sharply by 41% MoM but still more than doubling YoY with 112% growth. Li Auto, XPeng, Xiaomi, and Leapmotor all experienced MoM declines ranging from 14% to 24% in new orders for the week. Specifically, Li Auto's new orders stood at 6,700 units, also down 25% YoY; XPeng and Xiaomi fell 16% and rose 48% YoY respectively; Leapmotor saw a slight 3% MoM dip. Overall, market demand in early June saw a seasonal correction following end-May volume pushes, but some automakers maintained strong YoY momentum driven by new model launches or low bases.

Analysis framework

The report employs a high-frequency data tracking methodology, using weekly new orders compiled by third-party platform Thinkercar as the core observation metric to construct a leading indicator system for China's NEV demand. The analytical framework centers on 'MoM changes for short-term marginal shifts, YoY changes for medium-to-long-term trends.' By horizontally comparing order performance across nine mainstream automakers within the same time window, it quickly identifies which brands are gaining demand momentum and which face slowdowns at the current juncture. The core value of this approach lies in reducing the lag inherent in traditional monthly delivery data to a weekly frequency, helping the market anticipate terminal demand inflection points approximately 3-4 weeks earlier.

Methodology notes

• Industry/Sector Analysis FrameworkVolume-price decomposition

  Using new order volume as a leading quantitative indicator for demand, distinct from lagging delivery/sales data

  In the automotive industry, there is typically a multi-week lag between consumer ordering and actual delivery; therefore, weekly new orders are considered a more sensitive demand 'barometer' than monthly delivery data. This report leverages this time differential to allow investors to gauge demand conditions ahead of official monthly releases.

• Cycle & Prosperity FrameworkProsperity Inflection Point Analysis

  Capturing marginal turning point signals in industry prosperity through MoM changes in weekly frequency data

  The core logic of the weekly report is that consecutive weeks of MoM improvement or deterioration often presage an inflection point in industry prosperity. Compared to YoY data which is heavily affected by base effects, MoM changes better reflect real-time supply-demand dynamics, making them particularly suitable for identifying natural pullbacks after month-end volume pushes or pulse-like growth driven by new model launches.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Geely Auto (0175.HK)

  W1 June new orders grew 12% MoM, one of few tracked OEMs with positive MoM growth

  Strengths

  Dual-brand strategy (Zeekr and Galaxy) driving order resilience

  Comparison

  Strongest MoM performance among 9 tracked OEMs

• Tesla (TSLA.US)

  W1 June new orders up 1% MoM and 18% YoY, indicating stable demand growth

  Strengths

  Robust YoY growth rate with lower order volatility

  Weaknesses

  Absolute order volume lower than BYD and some emerging EV makers

  Comparison

  Better MoM stability than most domestic brands

• NIO (9866.HK)

  W1 June new orders surged 419% YoY, showing significant demand elasticity amid low base

  Strengths

  Top YoY growth rate, clear signal of improved product cycle

  Weaknesses

  28% MoM decline indicates high short-term volatility

  Comparison

  YoY growth far exceeds other tracked OEMs

• BYD (1211.HK)

  W1 June new orders remain highest but down 36% YoY, facing high base pressure

  Strengths

  Leading absolute order volume with solid market share

  Weaknesses

  Sharp YoY decline suggests weakening growth momentum

  Comparison

  Weaker YoY performance vs. Geely, Tesla, NIO, and SERES

• Li Auto (2015.HK)

  W1 June new orders down 24% MoM and 25% YoY, facing demand-side pressure

  Weaknesses

  Double-digit declines in both MoM and YoY, relatively weak among tracked OEMs

  Comparison

  Larger YoY decline than other mainstream OEMs except BYD

Key data

• BYD Jun W1 New Orders47,700 unitsMoM -2%, YoY -36%
• Geely Auto Jun W1 New Orders24,800 unitsMoM +12%
• SERES (AITO) Jun W1 New Orders24,200 unitsMoM -41%, YoY +112%
• NIO Jun W1 New Orders28,000 unitsMoM -28%, YoY +419%
• Tesla China Jun W1 New Orders14,200 unitsMoM +1%, YoY +18%
• Li Auto Jun W1 New Orders6,700 unitsMoM -24%, YoY -25%
• Xiaomi Auto Jun W1 New Orders7,400 unitsMoM -14%, YoY +48%
• XPeng Jun W1 New Orders9,500 unitsMoM -14%, YoY -16%
• Leapmotor Jun W1 New Orders14,600 unitsMoM -3%

Impact & implications

The report suggests that weekly new order data can serve as a leading indicator for assessing terminal demand trends in China's NEV market. For investors, this data helps identify marginal demand changes for individual automakers earlier than monthly delivery releases, enabling timely adjustments to short-term expectations for the sector and specific stocks. Current W1 June data indicates a normal market correction following late-May highs, but performance has diverged significantly across automakers due to differing product cycles, promotional pacing, and base effects, suggesting a need to focus on structural opportunities at the company level rather than solely on aggregate industry volumes.