Morgan Stanley previews 2H26 catalysts for China's humanoid robot supply chain

Overview

This report focuses on stocks in China's humanoid robot value chain and previews key catalysts that may affect share prices in 2H26. Morgan Stanley focuses on the debut and mass-production updates of Tesla Optimus Gen3, IPO progress of domestic robot OEMs, orders from real application scenarios, 2Q26 earnings commentary, industry conferences, and new product launches by robot OEMs. The sector view is In-Line, with the core judgment that the humanoid robot theme can still attract investor attention, but near-term sales volumes, commercialization evidence, and supply-chain share shifts remain key to determining the sustainability of the market trend.

Core views

The report believes the investment logic for the humanoid robot supply chain is shifting from concept-driven catalysts to commercial validation. If Tesla Optimus debuts on schedule around July-August, it would be a positive catalyst for sentiment toward China's supply chain; however, supplier feedback suggests that progress by the leading U.S. humanoid robot player has been delayed, and 4Q26 output is currently unlikely to reach 1,000 units per week. Domestically, the listing processes of Unitree, DeepRobotics, and Leju may lift attention to robot-related equity assets. At the stock level, LeaderDrive's harmonic reducers and bearings, Hengli's screws and motors, and Shuanghuan's gears and new reducers are all supply-chain segments that the report tracks closely.

Analysis framework

The report adopts a catalyst-preview framework, sorting future events by timing, importance, and potential share-price impact, while also assessing companies based on supply-chain positioning, capacity, market share, commercialization progress, and valuation methods. For individual companies, the report presents both core-business valuation and potential humanoid-robot business valuation, using methods such as P/E, P/S, and DCF, and supplements these with upside and downside risks.

Methodology notes

• Catalyst analysisUniversal Structured Research Data Catalysts

  Assess potential share-price drivers using an event timeline

  The report treats events such as Tesla Optimus launches, domestic IPOs, orders from real-world scenarios, earnings commentary, industry conferences, and new product launches as potential 2H26 catalysts, and evaluates their importance and possible upside or downside impact.

• Valuation methodologyP/E, P/S, DCF

  Segmented valuation of core business and humanoid robot business

  Shuanghuan uses 25x 2026e P/E to value its core business and applies 6x P/S to Rmb1.1bn of humanoid-robot-related sales; Hengli values its core business at 35x 2026e P/E and its humanoid robot components business with DCF; LeaderDrive uses a 2025-50e cash flow DCF with an 11% WACC and a 4% terminal growth rate.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Leader Harmonious Drive Systems (688017.SS)

  Supplier of harmonic reducers and bearings for humanoid robots, and supplies leading domestic robot OEMs.

  Strengths

  Previously indicated it supplies harmonic reducers and bearings to a leading U.S. integrator; the report believes commercialization orders and robot OEM progress are especially important for it.

  Weaknesses

  In the short term, it is still affected by the overall mass-production pace of humanoid robots and changes in customer market share.

  Comparison

  Compared with screw or gear suppliers, LeaderDrive has more direct exposure to the harmonic reducer technology route.

  Risks

  Market share gains or losses, weaker-than-expected demand for industrial robots, slower-than-expected humanoid robot development, and harmonic reducers no longer being the mainstream solution.

• Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd (601100.SS)

  Participant in the humanoid robot body screw and potential screw+motor supply chain.

  Strengths

  The report says it has a 70%+ share in body screw products for a leading U.S. integrator, with Mexico capacity targeted to support about 100k robots; it has entered the humanoid robot supply chains of Xiaomi, Xpeng, and Li Auto.

  Weaknesses

  The launch timing of related products remains uncertain, and demand in its traditional excavator and pump-valve businesses will still affect overall performance.

  Comparison

  Compared with reducer segments, Hengli's upside comes from increasing screw and motor value per robot and deeper penetration into overseas customer supply chains.

  Risks

  A sharp decline in demand for excavators and pump valves in China, failure to expand share in non-excavator components, and slower-than-expected humanoid robot penetration.

• Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co. Ltd. (002472.SZ)

  Supplies gears for reducer production and develops new reducers for humanoid robots.

  Strengths

  It has been developing a new reducer with a leading U.S. humanoid robot integrator for more than two years, and the report believes its precision gear capabilities can be transferred to humanoid robot components.

  Weaknesses

  Progress in humanoid robot reducers still needs validation, and competition in gears and actuators in China may intensify.

  Comparison

  Compared with Hengli and LeaderDrive, Shuanghuan's core advantage is more focused on precision gear manufacturing and reducer supporting capabilities.

  Risks

  Slower-than-expected share gains, weaker-than-expected overseas market demand, intensified competition in gears and actuators in China, and slower-than-expected progress in humanoid robot reducers.

• Tesla Optimus

  An important source of external demand and sentiment catalyst for China's humanoid robot supply chain.

  Strengths

  If the Gen3 debut and production update advance on schedule, they may validate industry progress and drive greater attention to the supply chain.

  Weaknesses

  Supplier feedback suggests delayed progress by the leading U.S. player, and near-term volume ramp remains limited.

  Comparison

  Compared with domestic IPOs and industry conferences, Tesla Optimus more directly affects global expectations for humanoid robot mass production.

  Risks

  A delayed launch, production falling short of expectations, or supply-chain share changes may weigh on sector sentiment.

Key data

• Report date2026-06-23Morgan Stanley Research, China Industrials | Asia Pacific.
• Sector viewIn-LineCorresponds to a view that sector performance over the next 12-18 months will be broadly in line with the benchmark.
• Tesla Optimus catalyst windowJuly-August; 3Q26If the launch or production update is delayed, it could become a downside risk to sector sentiment.
• Potential 4Q26 production judgmentunlikely to reach 1,000 units per weekSupplier feedback suggests delayed progress by the leading U.S. humanoid robot player.
• Unitree IPO progressPassed Shanghai Stock Exchange Listing Committee reviewIf the regulatory process goes smoothly, the listing may occur in the next 1-2 months, though it also depends on A-share issuance conditions.
• Hengli share and capacity70%+ share; c.100k robot units year-end capacity supportThe report says Hengli has a 70%+ share in body screw products for a leading U.S. integrator, with capacity mainly prepared in Mexico.
• Hengli value per robotscrew ASP c.Rmb1k; screw+motor c.Rmb10-15k per robot; GPM 25-30%The long-term value contribution of screws + motors is expected to increase.
• Hengli target priceRmb133Derived from 35x 2026e core-business P/E plus DCF for the humanoid robot components business.
• LeaderDrive per-share valueRmb269Based on 2025-50e cash flow DCF, WACC 11%, terminal growth rate 4%.
• Industry eventsWAIC July 2026; WRC Aug 19-23; World Humanoid Robot Games Aug 22-26The report believes these events may attract industry and public attention and support investor sentiment.

Impact & implications

The investment implication of the report is that China's humanoid robot supply chain in 2H26 still has event-driven characteristics, but share-price performance will depend more on real progress than on theme-driven enthusiasm alone. If Tesla Optimus advances on schedule, domestic robot OEM IPOs materialize, and orders and repeat orders from real-world scenarios emerge, supply-chain companies may receive support in both sentiment and valuation; conversely, if mass production is delayed, order validation is insufficient, or core component technology routes change, the sector may face correction pressure.

Risks

• A delay in the Tesla Optimus debut or production update may suppress sentiment toward China's humanoid robot supply chain.
• Progress by the leading U.S. humanoid robot player is delayed, and 4Q26 production may be unlikely to reach 1,000 units per week.
• IPO progress of domestic robot OEMs may be affected by regulatory approval and A-share issuance conditions.
• Insufficient commercialization validation, including lack of positive ROI, large-scale deployment, or repeat orders from end customers.
• Supply-chain companies may experience market share gains or losses, affecting earnings leverage and valuation expectations.
• Overseas OEM demand may be weaker than expected, or competition in gears and actuators in China may intensify.
• Humanoid robot penetration may be slower than expected, or changes in mainstream technology routes may pressure segments such as harmonic reducers.

What to watch

• Tesla Optimus Gen3 debut and production update in 3Q26.
• Unitree's listing progress over the next 1-2 months, as well as subsequent application progress by DeepRobotics and Leju.
• Whether robot OEMs disclose orders from real-world usage scenarios, repeat orders, positive ROI, or larger-scale deployments.
• Management commentary related to humanoid robot business in the 2Q26 earnings releases in August 2026.
• New products, orders, and industry feedback at WAIC 2026, World Robot Conference 2026, and the 2nd World Humanoid Robot Games.
• The boost to public attention and investor sentiment from new product launches by robot OEMs such as UBTECH U1.