Korean food delivery market consolidation accelerates, with Baemin's potential sale set to escalate the Naver and Coupang ecosystem battle

Overview

This report discusses the potential consolidation of the Korean food delivery industry, with the key event being Delivery Hero's planned sale of Baemin's Korean assets. Nomura believes the transaction structure has not yet been finalized. Early market rumors involved a consortium led by Naver and Uber, but after Uber became Delivery Hero's largest single shareholder, its position as both an important shareholder on the seller side and a potential member of a buyer consortium could create regulatory and conflict-of-interest complexity. As a result, Naver may seek other partners or financial investors to secure strategic exposure to Baemin and integrate its platform services with local commerce networks.

Core views

Food delivery in Korea is not just a commission business, but an entry point into high-frequency daily consumption commerce. Baemin's market share was close to 70% in the late 2010s and early 2020s, but GMV has been declining since 2022, while Coupang Eats has caught up quickly thanks to logistics coverage expansion and free delivery under the WOW membership. The strategic significance of the potential Baemin transaction is that it could connect Naver's search, membership, and local commerce capabilities with Baemin's delivery network, creating a direct response to Coupang's retail-plus-logistics closed-loop model.

Analysis framework

The report combines analysis of industry structure, market share, platform ecosystem synergies, and company valuation disclosures. The industry section focuses on comparing GMV and market share changes across Baemin, Coupang Eats, Yogiyo, and other participants; the company section combines Naver's and Coupang's ratings, target prices, valuation methods, and transaction probability to assess the potential impact of consolidation on the competitive landscape.

Methodology notes

• industry_structureduopoly competition analysis

  duopoly competition landscape

  By observing Baemin's share decline and Coupang Eats' share increase, the report judges that the Korean food delivery industry is shifting from single-platform dominance to a highly competitive duopoly.

• Valuation methodsprice-to-sales and price-to-earnings multiples

  PSR and P/E valuation multiples

  Baemin's reported sale price of KRW8tn corresponds to 2026F PSR of 1.3x and P/E of 18x, which is used to gauge the valuation level of the transaction.

• Valuation methodssum-of-the-parts valuation

  SOTP valuation

  Naver's target price of KRW240,000 is based on a SOTP valuation, with KOSPI as the benchmark index.

• Valuation methodstarget P/E multiple

  target P/E valuation

  Coupang's target price of USD20 is based on a 40x target P/E applied to 2027-28F EPS.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Naver Corporation (035420 KS)

  A potential core participant in the Baemin acquisition consortium; may fill delivery and local commerce capability gaps by taking a stake in Baemin.

  Strengths

  It has search traffic, Naver Plus memberships, local commerce entry points, and platform-service integration capabilities; if it secures Baemin exposure, it can quickly close the gap in food delivery and instant delivery.

  Weaknesses

  The deal structure depends on partner selection, regulation, and conflict-of-interest factors; Naver's own logistics closed loop is less complete than Coupang's.

  Comparison

  Compared with Coupang, Naver is stronger in search and platform entry points, but needs external assets such as Baemin to strengthen self-operated logistics and instant fulfillment.

  Risks

  Potential deal failure, excessive transaction valuation, weaker-than-expected integration, and higher subsidies and membership costs due to competition with Coupang.

• Coupang Inc (CPNG US)

  The main competitively affected party in a potential Baemin transaction; Coupang Eats is the second-largest and fast-growing platform in the Korean food delivery market.

  Strengths

  It has a mature logistics network, the WOW membership system, and the ability to expand from e-commerce into food delivery and general merchandise; Coupang Eats' market share is already close to 30%.

  Weaknesses

  If Naver backs Baemin, Coupang will face a stronger ecosystem competitor; food delivery competition may increase discounting and subsidy pressure.

  Comparison

  Compared with the Naver-Baemin combination, Coupang's advantage lies in integrated retail logistics and membership fulfillment, but the rival could form a forceful combination in search traffic, local commerce, and existing food delivery users.

  Risks

  Korean regulatory pressure could exceed expectations, operating leverage may materialize more slowly than expected, and a membership war and subsidy war could weigh on margins.

• Baemin

  A potential divestiture asset and also the largest platform in the Korean food delivery market.

  Strengths

  It still has more than 50% market share, a broad merchant and user base, and quick-commerce capabilities such as B-Mart.

  Weaknesses

  GMV and market share have been declining since 2021-2022, and it is being steadily overtaken by Coupang Eats.

  Comparison

  Baemin still leads in scale relative to Coupang Eats; however, Coupang Eats is growing faster and is backed by Coupang's logistics and membership ecosystem.

  Risks

  Transaction uncertainty, intensifying competition, valuation pressure, and whether post-acquisition it can form effective synergies with the new shareholder's platform.

• Delivery Hero (DHER GR)

  Baemin's parent company and the potential seller.

  Strengths

  It owns Baemin, Korea's leading food delivery asset, and a sale could unlock asset value.

  Weaknesses

  The divestment process may be affected by buyer structure, regulation, and Uber's shareholding relationship.

  Comparison

  As the seller, Delivery Hero's priority is to secure a reasonable exit valuation rather than continue to lead local competition in Korea.

  Risks

  Transaction price, regulatory approval, conflict-of-interest issues, and uncertainty around the buyer consortium structure.

Key data

• Potential Baemin sale priceKRW8tnReported price, corresponding to 2026F PSR of 1.3x and P/E of 18x.
• Baemin 2025 market shareabout 54%The chart shows Baemin's share falling from about 69% in 2021 to about 54% in 2025.
• Coupang Eats 2025 market shareabout 27%The chart shows Coupang Eats rising from about 4% in 2019 to about 27% in 2024-2025.
• Baemin 2025 GMVabout KRW19,000bnApproximate visual read; Baemin's GMV peaked in 2021 and then gradually declined.
• Coupang Eats 2025 GMVabout KRW9,600bnApproximate visual read; Coupang Eats has grown rapidly since 2019.
• Uber's stake in Delivery Hero19.5% stake with options for an additional 5.6%This stake gives Uber a dual role in the potential transaction as both an important shareholder on the seller side and a potential buyer consortium member.
• Naver rating and target priceNeutral; KRW240,000The target price is based on SOTP valuation, and the latest closing price in the chart is about KRW201,000.
• Coupang rating and target priceNeutral; USD20The target price is based on a 40x target P/E applied to 2027-28F EPS, and the current price in the chart is about USD15.62.

Impact & implications

If Naver secures a strategic stake in Baemin, competition among Korean internet platforms will shift from a simple battle for food delivery share to comprehensive ecosystem competition across search, memberships, local merchants, quick commerce, and last-mile delivery networks. Naver could use the deal to fill its instant-delivery capability gap and counter Coupang's retail-plus-logistics closed loop; Coupang, in turn, may respond with stronger subsidies, membership benefits, and category expansion to defend its Eats and e-commerce ecosystem. The industry outcome could be higher market concentration, but near-term competitive intensity, marketing spending, and margin pressure may also rise.

Risks

• Uber's simultaneous role as an important Delivery Hero shareholder and a potential buyer consortium member could trigger regulatory and conflict-of-interest issues.
• If Naver participates in the Baemin deal, it may face risks around valuation, integration execution, and partner selection.
• Competition in the Korean food delivery market may intensify further, pushing up discounting, delivery subsidies, and membership-benefit costs.
• Coupang faces downside risk from Korean regulatory pressure exceeding expectations and operating leverage being weaker than expected.
• The market-share and GMV chart values are visually approximate readings, and some historical data may contain rounding or OCR uncertainty.

What to watch

• Whether Delivery Hero formally announces a Baemin sale and who the final buyer consortium members are.
• Whether Naver seeks strategic or financial partners other than Uber to join the transaction.
• How regulators view the conflict of interest between Uber's stake in Delivery Hero and its potential buyer role.
• Changes in GMV, market share, and subsidy intensity for Baemin and Coupang Eats.
• Cross-penetration of Naver Plus and Coupang WOW membership benefits across food delivery, quick commerce, and retail scenarios.
• Whether future ratings, target prices, and valuation assumptions for Naver and Coupang are revised as the transaction progresses.