Goldman Sachs: Both Imports and Exports Surpass Expectations in April, Trade Surplus Widens Significantly

Overview

This report analyzes China’s trade data for April 2026. It shows that both imports and exports grew faster than expected and surpassed market consensus forecasts. Exports rose by 14.1% year-on-year, while imports grew by 25.3%. The trade surplus significantly widened to $848 billion. The report attributes this performance partly to the fading impact of seasonal factors such as Chinese New Year, improving demand from major trading partners, and rising prices of commodities like energy.

Core views

Demand-Side and Aggregate Performance: China’s trade activity showed significant improvement in April. In dollar terms, exports grew by 14.1%, far exceeding 2.5% in March and the Bloomberg consensus of 8.4%; imports increased by 25.3%, slightly below the 27.8% recorded in March but still above Goldman Sachs’ and Bloomberg’s consensus of 20.0%. After adjusting for seasonality, exports grew by 3.4% month-on-month (versus -4.5% in March), and imports rose by 2.5% month-on-month (compared to 4.9% in March). The trade surplus soared from $511 billion in March to $848 billion in April. Regional Distribution Characteristics: Exports to major developed economies showed broad-based improvements. Exports to the US grew by 11.3% year-on-year (down from 8.6% in March) and saw a robust 7.7% month-on-month increase, with strong year-on-year growth partially attributed to last year's low base; exports to the EU grew by 13.4% (up from 8.6% in March). Among emerging markets, exports to Africa grew the fastest at 17.3%; exports to other emerging markets (including the Middle East) accelerated to 15.2%; and exports to ASEAN and Latin America also maintained double-digit growth. On the import side, except for Japan, imports continued to rise from major trading partners. Product Structure Divergence: On the export front, clothing, footwear, and luggage had the highest month-on-month gains, followed closely by metal and real estate-related products. Notably, rare earth mineral exports surged by 196.3% year-on-year, primarily driven by a price increase of 185.4%; aluminum exports rose by 31.4%; home appliance exports grew by 7.0%, reversing the decline seen in March. On the import side, agricultural product imports led in month-on-month gain, with soybean imports increasing by 39.4% in volume and 49.3% in value year-on-year. Energy imports were supported by prices, with crude oil import values up 13.2% year-on-year, although volumes fell by 20.0%, implying an approximate 33.2% year-on-year increase in oil prices. For high-tech products, chip imports expanded by 54.7% year-on-year, again primarily driven by price factors.

Analysis framework

The report employs a typical macro data disaggregation framework. First, it validates the authenticity and trends of aggregate data through year-on-year and month-on-month (seasonally adjusted) dimensions, excluding perturbations caused by seasonal events like Chinese New Year. Second, it dissects imports and exports based on 'destination,' differentiating between developed markets (DM) and emerging markets (EM) to identify regional differences in external demand. Finally, it performs quantity-price splits by 'product category,' focusing particularly on energy, rare metals, and high-tech products to distinguish whether nominal value changes stem from recovery in demand quantities or fluctuations in prices.

Methodology notes

• Industry/Industrial Analysis FrameworkQuantity-Price Split

  Quantity-Price Disaggregation Analysis

  It decomposes changes in nominal import and export amounts into 'quantity changes' and 'price changes.' For instance, the report notes that although crude oil import values increased, reduced volumes indicate price hikes as the primary driver, helping readers understand underlying supply-demand dynamics behind nominal data.

• Industry/Industrial Analysis FrameworkSupply Chain Upstream-Downstream Transmission

  Transmission via Major Trading Partners and Product Classification

  By analyzing trade flows to different countries (e.g., the US, EU, ASEAN) and different products (e.g., rare earths, chips, soybeans), it assesses shifts in global demand structures and how upstream resource prices affect middle-tier trade accounts.

Key data

• April Export YoY Growth Rate14.1%Higher than 2.5% in March and the consensus of 8.4%
• April Import YoY Growth Rate25.3%Above the consensus of 20.0%, slightly lower than 27.8% in March
• April Trade Surplus$848 BillionSignificantly wider compared to $511 Billion in March
• US Export YoY Growth Rate11.3%March was -26.5%, with a 7.7% month-over-month increase
• Rare Earth Mineral Export Value YoY Growth Rate196.3%Mainly driven by a price increase of 185.4% year-on-year
• Crude Oil Import Volume YoY Change-20.0%Despite a 13.2% increase in import value, the significant drop in volume implies soaring prices
• Chip Import Value YoY Growth Rate54.7%Primarily driven by price factors

Impact & implications

The report suggests that the robust trade performance in April reflects resilience in external demand and active domestic imports. Improvements across all export segments, especially the turnaround in exports to the US, help alleviate concerns about weak external demand. High import growth, particularly in energy and high-tech products, may reflect补库存需求 domestically or price transmission effects. The widening trade surplus will support the current account.

What to watch

• Detailed trade data by country and product released on May 20th