Primary and secondary housing sales in Mainland China diverge, while primary home sales in Hong Kong reached a 2.5-year high

Overview

This report is a J.P. Morgan real estate data tracker covering property markets, property stock performance, southbound holdings, the credit market and valuation snapshots in Mainland China and Hong Kong SAR. The key conclusion is that Mainland housing shows divergence between primary and secondary sales: primary sales in 60 cities weakened, while secondary sales in 12 cities remained up year-over-year; in Hong Kong, the price index, valuation gauges, sales sentiment and primary new-tranche transactions all showed stronger recovery.

Core views

In Mainland China, the Tier-1 city second-hand listing price index edged up slightly to 19.3, while the manager confidence index remained stable at 57, but primary registered home sales in 60 cities fell 7% year-over-year and sales across 20 cities are down 10% year-to-date, indicating primary demand remains pressured. In contrast, registered secondary sales in 12 cities rose 16% year-over-year and are up 3% year-to-date, with Shanghai, Beijing and Shenzhen rising 9%, 4% and 1% respectively. In Hong Kong, second-hand house prices rose 0.2% week-over-week and 8.0% year-to-date; CVI rose to 89.3 and CSI held at 69.7, both supporting the view that prices can continue rising. Weekend primary transactions reached 560, the highest in 2.5 years, with multiple new projects fully sold in their initial tranches, reflecting strong demand in the primary market.

Analysis framework

The report uses a high-frequency market tracking framework, combining data from Centaline, Wind, CREIS, Midland, Similarweb and other sources to monitor leading indicators, weekly primary and secondary transactions, Hong Kong house price index, weekend viewing activity, southbound holdings, stock performance and credit index performance. The analytical focus is not a single-company earnings forecast; instead, it cross-validates short-term sector health through sales, prices, sentiment, capital allocation and market performance.

Methodology notes

• Real estate high-frequency monitoringPrimary and secondary residential sales registrations

  Use weekly registration data to measure transaction momentum in the housing market

  Primary sales reflect developers' clearance of new launches and new-housing demand, while secondary sales better capture activity in the existing housing market; this period's Mainland primary sales decline versus secondary sales growth indicates uneven recovery.

• Leading indicatorsCentaline second-hand listing price index and manager confidence index

  Use listing prices and broker-manager confidence to gauge price and transaction expectations

  The Tier-1 city secondary listing price index rose slightly and the confidence index held at 57, indicating sentiment has improved at the margin but transaction confirmation is still needed.

• Hong Kong price and sentiment gaugesCVI and CSI

  CVI indicates banks’ willingness to mark valuations up, while CSI reflects front-line sales sentiment

  CVI above 60 generally indicates banks are more willing to revalue properties upward, and CSI above 50 indicates positive sentiment with a higher likelihood of price gains; both CVI at 89.3 and CSI at 69.7 are in the constructive range.

• Capital and market performanceSouthbound holdings and stock performance

  Track changes in capital allocation and relative returns in the property sector

  The report tracks weekly changes in southbound holdings as a share of free-float and compares property sector performance versus the Hang Seng Index, to infer fund preference and how quickly improvements are being priced by the market.

• Credit researchBond relative value and fundamental credit view

  J.P. Morgan's credit framework combines valuation with issuer fundamentals

  The report describes a credit methodology that evaluates cash flow, leverage, interest coverage, liquidity, earnings quality, capital structure and asset quality, with a three-month relative performance horizon for the rating time frame.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• COLI

  One of J.P. Morgan's Mainland China real estate top picks

  Strengths

  The report labels it as one of the preferred names; shares were up 18% last week, supported by sector stabilization and Golden Week data.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not provide standalone earnings forecasts or target price this time; valuation sheets and the full report are needed for confirmation.

  Comparison

  Relative to Hang Seng Index +1% and Mainland China property sector +14%, COLI performed stronger last week.

  Risks

  Continued weakness in primary sales, policy effects below expectations, and a pullback in sector valuations.

• CR Land

  One of J.P. Morgan's Mainland China real estate top picks, with exposure to public REITs financing plans

  Strengths

  The company has commercial investment property assets, and public REITs could become a new funding channel; it plans to inject RMB 10-15 billion of mall assets with a target of issuing RMB 60 billion of public REITs by 2030.

  Weaknesses

  The use of REITs proceeds is still split across capex, maintenance and M&A, and there is execution and asset valuation uncertainty.

  Comparison

  Developers with larger investment property portfolios are considered more likely to benefit from commercial REITs financing channels.

  Risks

  REITs issuance pacing, asset valuation, commercial rent performance and M&A outcome risks.

• Jinmao

  One of J.P. Morgan's Mainland China real estate top picks

  Strengths

  Shares rose 17% last week, outperforming both the broad market and most real estate names.

  Weaknesses

  No company-specific operating data is provided in this report summary.

  Comparison

  Outperformance was stronger than the Mainland China real estate sector average of +14%.

  Risks

  Volatility in property sales, changes in financing conditions, and valuation pullback.

• CR Mixc

  One of J.P. Morgan's Mainland China real estate top picks

  Strengths

  As a commercial/consumer-related property exposure, it could benefit from recovery in commercial property and consumption-related end markets.

  Weaknesses

  The input provides no standalone operating data or valuation detail for this name.

  Comparison

  Listed alongside CR Land and other property owners with substantial commercial assets as a favored area.

  Risks

  Consumer recovery in retail below expectations, tenant sales growth slowing, and valuation pressure.

• SHKP

  One of J.P. Morgan's Hong Kong developer top picks

  Strengths

  The first tranche of Lime Spark had 154 units sold out at 100%, and average pricing was 14% above secondary, indicating strong sell-through and pricing power.

  Weaknesses

  Hong Kong secondary volume fell week-over-week; if primary momentum cools, market sentiment could weaken.

  Comparison

  The report favors SHKP and Sino among Hong Kong developers.

  Risks

  Hong Kong interest rates, purchasing power, supply cadence and sustainability of house price appreciation.

• Sino

  One of J.P. Morgan's Hong Kong developer top picks

  Strengths

  Listed as a preferred Hong Kong developer and may benefit from recovery in the Hong Kong residential market.

  Weaknesses

  The input summary does not provide separate project sales data.

  Comparison

  Grouped with SHKP as Hong Kong developer top picks.

  Risks

  Volatility in Hong Kong housing transactions, house price pullbacks, and project sales below expectations.

• Swire Prop

  One of J.P. Morgan's Hong Kong income stock top picks

  Strengths

  Swire Properties 1Q26 data shows Hong Kong retail tenant sales accelerated from +6% in 4Q25 to +13% in 1Q26, and negative office rent drift is expected to narrow in 2H26.

  Weaknesses

  Office rent still has negative drift; only the narrowing of that trend is implied.

  Comparison

  The report notes that resilient Hong Kong retail and gradually stabilizing office demand have positive implications for Hysan as well.

  Risks

  Office demand in Central recovering slower than expected, retail sales decelerating, and insufficient rent recovery.

• Hang Lung

  One of J.P. Morgan's Hong Kong income stock top picks

  Strengths

  Southbound holdings rose 0.5% week-over-week, suggesting improved investor attention.

  Weaknesses

  Shares were up only 1% last week, making it one of the laggards versus the Hong Kong property and composite enterprise sector.

  Comparison

  Performance lagged the sector's +4% gain.

  Risks

  Insufficient commercial property rent recovery, reversal in southbound flows, and style rotation in the market.

• Hysan 7.2% perp

  Preferred Hong Kong commercial property recovery credit in the report's credit views

  Strengths

  The report views it as one of the best credits to capture Hong Kong commercial property recovery, priced at 105.825 with YTC 5.7% and z-spread +189.

  Weaknesses

  The perpetual bond carries duration, redemption, and subordination-related risks.

  Comparison

  Its supportive theme is tied to resilient Hong Kong retail performance and gradually stabilizing office conditions.

  Risks

  Commercial property recovery below expectations, widening credit spreads, changes in redemption expectations and interest-rate volatility.

Key data

• Mainland China primary home sales in 60 citiesYoY -7%Previous week was YoY +1%; Tier-1 and Tier-2 cities performed better at YoY -3%.
• Mainland China 20-city year-to-date primary home salesYoY -10%Indicates the new-home market remains under downward pressure.
• Mainland China secondary home sales in 12 citiesYoY +16%Previous week was YoY +25%; year-to-date YoY +3%.
• Shanghai/Beijing/Shenzhen year-to-date secondary home salesShanghai +9%; Beijing +4%; Shenzhen +1%The secondary market in top-tier cities is relatively more resilient.
• Tier-1 city secondary listing price index19.3Previous week was 19.0; Shenzhen had the largest week-over-week increase, up 1.0 to 28.1, possibly reflecting policy easing at the end of April.
• Centaline manager confidence index57Largely flat versus prior period, indicating stable confidence.
• Mainland China real estate sector performanceLast week +14%Significantly outperformed the Hang Seng Index at about +1%; Longfor +22%, Yuexiu and COLI both +18%, Jinmao +17%, Country Garden -2%.
• Hong Kong residential price indexWeek-over-week +0.2%; year-to-date +8.0%About 2 percentage points below J.P. Morgan's 2026 price outlook of 10%-15%.
• Hong Kong top 35 estates secondary transactions78 transactionsWeek-over-week -24%, year-over-year +22%.
• Hong Kong CVI89.3Previous week was 85.3; above 60 indicates banks are more inclined to mark property valuations upward.
• Hong Kong CSI69.7Previous week was 70.3; above 50 indicates positive sentiment and a higher likelihood of price gains.
• Hong Kong weekend primary housing transactions560 transactionsHighest in the past 2.5 years; multiple new project tranches were 100% sold out.
• Hong Kong property and composite enterprise stock performanceLast week +4%Outperformed the Hang Seng Index by about +1%; CK Hutchison +11%, NWD +10%, Wharf Holdings +9%.
• JACI China HY Property IndexLast week +1.7%; year-to-date +1.3%China HY was +0.7% over the same period, indicating relatively stronger high-yield China property credit performance.
• CR Land potential public REITs planPlan to inject RMB 10-15 billion of mall assets in 2026; target cumulative issuance of RMB 60 billion before 2030About 60% of proceeds expected for development and maintenance of existing projects, and about 30% for M&A activity.

Impact & implications

From an investment perspective, the core tension in Mainland real estate remains a coexistence of weak primary sales and resilient secondary activity, with policy easing likely to first improve expectations in core cities and for better-quality developers; Hong Kong shows more synchronized improvement in prices, transactions, valuations and sentiment, which may continue to support relative performance of developers, net lease stocks and commercial real estate credits. Property stocks have already rebounded clearly in the short term; moving forward, it will be important to verify whether improved sales can persist and whether house price gains can translate into earnings and balance-sheet normalization.

Risks

• Primary housing sales in Mainland China continue to decline, pressuring developer cash flow and market sentiment.
• Improving secondary activity may fail to transmit into primary sales and the land market, worsening the recovery divergence.
• Policy easing may have only a temporary effect while demand outside core cities remains weak.
• Rapid year-to-date house price gains in Hong Kong could reverse if interest rates, supply or purchasing power shift.
• Property stocks already rose sharply in the short term; if high-frequency data rolls over or earnings do not catch up, valuations could unwind.
• Commercial real estate recovery depends on retail sales and office leasing activity; if tenant sales slow or office vacancy pressure persists, income stocks and credit names could face pressure.
• Credit assets are vulnerable to interest rates, liquidity, refinancing conditions and issuer balance-sheet repair progress.

What to watch

• Whether Mainland China primary sales across 60 cities can turn from YoY -7% to positive.
• Whether growth in secondary sales across 12 cities can be sustained, and whether the leadership in Shanghai, Beijing and Shenzhen continues.
• Whether price and transaction feedback in Shenzhen and other core cities improves further after policy easing.
• Whether Hong Kong CVI stays above 60 and CSI remains above 50.
• Whether de-risking of later tranches and relative pricing premium to the secondary market can be maintained for future Hong Kong primary projects.
• Whether Hong Kong transactions of the top 35 estates can recover from 78 deals.
• Changes in southbound holdings for Yuexiu, Greentown, C&D, COLI, Country Garden, Hang Lung and Henderson.
• Whether the outperformance of JACI China HY Property Index over China HY is sustained.
• Progress of CR Land's public REITs plan, including issuance pace, asset pricing and use of proceeds.