Nomura expects the USD/CNY fixing at 6.7930, 137 pips lower than the previous fixing

Overview

This is a USD/CNY fixing model report published by Nomura on July 2, 2026 and produced by Nomura Singapore Ltd. (NSL). The core content is to provide the next forecast for the USD/CNY fixing and compare it with the previous fixing, the prior official spot close, and the model result including the counter-cyclical factor.

Core views

The core view is that the USD/CNY fixing may be meaningfully lower than the previous fixing: the model forecast excluding the counter-cyclical factor is 6.7930, 137 pips below the previous 6.8067; the forecast including the counter-cyclical factor is 6.7953, 114 pips below the previous fixing. This result is marginally positive for the short-term RMB fixing direction, but the report itself does not constitute a trading recommendation.

Analysis framework

The report estimates the fixing level through the USD/CNY fix model and separately presents results excluding and including the counter-cyclical factor; it also uses overnight weighted contributions, recent model errors, daily USD/CNY fixing changes, and an event calendar to help explain the forecasting backdrop.

Methodology notes

• FX Fixing ModelUSD/CNY fix model

  Fixing model forecast

  The model outputs the forecast for the next USD/CNY fixing and compares the predicted value with the previous fixing and the prior official spot close in pip terms.

• FX Policy Adjustment TermCounter-cyclical factor

  Counter-cyclical factor adjustment

  The report separately provides the forecast of 6.7953 including the counter-cyclical factor, to observe the impact of policy or rule-based adjustment terms on the model's fixing result.

• Macro Event TrackingCalendar of events

  Event calendar

  The report lists events such as the China Politburo meeting, National Day Golden Week, APEC, the Central Economic Work Conference, and China-US leader interactions as background for subsequent RMB exchange-rate monitoring.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• USD/CNY fixing

  Core forecast target

  Strengths

  The report provides a clear level of 6.7930 and discloses the pip differences versus the previous fixing and the official spot close.

  Weaknesses

  The extracted content does not provide complete model parameters, variable weights, or recent error figures, making it difficult to independently verify forecast accuracy.

  Comparison

  6.7930 is below the previous 6.8067; the 6.7953 figure including the counter-cyclical factor is higher than the 6.7930 figure excluding it, indicating that the adjustment term narrows the downward move.

  Risks

  The actual fixing may deviate from the model due to policy settings, the counter-cyclical factor, market liquidity, and USD volatility.

• RMB exchange-rate related exposure

  Indirectly affected asset

  Strengths

  A lower fixing is usually interpreted by the market as a stronger RMB fixing signal, offering reference value for short-term RMB sentiment.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not provide a medium- to long-term FX path or trading recommendations, so it cannot directly support trend-positioning.

  Comparison

  This forecast is 137 pips below the previous fixing, while the forecast including the counter-cyclical factor is 114 pips lower.

  Risks

  Wider model errors, changes in the US dollar index, policy meeting signals, or shifts in cross-border capital flows could all alter the RMB trajectory.

Key data

• Report Date2026-07-02The main text shows the date as 2 July 2026, while the filename date is 20260702.
• Model Forecast6.7930137 pips below the previous 6.8067; 5 pips below the prior official spot close.
• Previous Fixing6.8067Used to measure the downward adjustment implied by this model forecast.
• Forecast Including Counter-cyclical Factor6.7953114 pips below the previous fixing.
• Research InstitutionNomura / Nomura Singapore Ltd. (NSL)The report discloses that it was produced by Nomura Singapore Ltd.
• AnalystsCraig Chan；Wee Choon Teo；Vicky Chen；Manthan ShingalaThe report lists them as Asia FX Strategy research analysts.
• Key Events to Watch in 2HLate-July 2026 Politburo economic work meeting; October 2026 National Day Golden Week; November 2026 APEC; December 2026 Central Economic Work Conference and Politburo meeting; Xi Jinping visit to the United States at the end of 2026The event calendar contains some OCR row/column misalignment; specific events and dates should be checked against the original PDF or official announcements.

Impact & implications

If the actual fixing comes close to the model forecast, a lower USD/CNY fixing would provide marginal support to short-term RMB sentiment and would also affect FX hedging, offshore RMB pricing, and short-term risk appetite for RMB-related assets. However, a single-day model forecast does not represent a trend and still needs to be assessed together with USD moves, policy communication, and actual fixing deviations.

Risks

• The report is a model forecast, not a trading recommendation; the actual USD/CNY fixing may deviate materially from the model value.
• The counter-cyclical factor and policy communication may alter the fixing outcome, so the model output excluding the factor should not be relied on alone.
• The report states that forecasts, historical performance, or simulated results are not reliable indicators of future performance.
• The event calendar extracted via OCR contains some row/column misalignment, so specific dates and events need to be checked against the original PDF or official announcements.
• The extracted text does not include specific contribution items and model error figures from the charts, limiting the ability to verify the model drivers.

What to watch

• Whether the next official USD/CNY fixing is close to the 6.7930 to 6.7953 range.
• The magnitude of the actual fixing's deviation from the forecast excluding the counter-cyclical factor, especially whether it reflects counter-cyclical adjustment.
• The direction of fixing contributions from overnight USD, offshore RMB, and basket-currency changes.
• The late-July 2026 Politburo economic work meeting, October National Day Golden Week, November APEC, December Central Economic Work Conference, and year-end China-US leader interactions.
• Whether recent model errors are widening, especially when policy signals or USD volatility intensify.