Global risk assets rebound, with AI, IPOs, and oil & gas reinvestment as the key weekend observations
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Global risk assets rebound, with AI, IPOs, and oil & gas reinvestment as the key weekend observations
Goldman Sachs' weekend note argues that global equities and risk appetite have clearly recovered since the conflict, with technology and energy driving improved earnings expectations, but positioning, tail risks, and macro policy events still warrant cautious monitoring.
- Since news related to the U.S.-Iran conflict emerged, global equities have rebounded strongly and are approaching new highs, with developed-market equities slightly outperforming emerging-market equities.
- Brent crude oil rose 45%, commodities rose 12%, the U.S. dollar rose 9%, gold fell 11%, and cryptocurrencies also saw notable moves.
- The market expects about 60 basis points of rate cuts this year, while Goldman Sachs still expects one cut each in September and December.
- Global capital markets are recovering, with U.S. IPOs raising US$14 billion year-to-date; Hong Kong IPOs have also raised US$14 billion year-to-date, up 490% year-over-year.
- The oil and gas sector may be entering a new upward cycle for capital spending, with global oil reserves, capital expenditures, and exploration spending all significantly below peak levels.
Report interpretation
Overview
This report is Goldman Sachs' weekend market observation, covering the performance of global risk assets since the conflict, U.S. and Asian equity fund flows, AI-related sectors, capital markets recovery, IPO activity, the oil and gas capital spending cycle, and key macro and corporate earnings events in the coming week. Rather than a traditional rating report on a single listed company, it evaluates market risk appetite and investment opportunities from a multi-asset and cross-regional perspective.
Core views
The core view is that risk assets have clearly recovered from the earlier shock of the conflict, with technology, AI, and energy sectors supporting index performance and earnings expectations; however, hedge fund net exposure remains low, systematic capital has already rebuilt positions significantly, and market asymmetry remains less than ideal. In capital markets, both U.S. and Hong Kong IPO activity show signs of recovery. In oil and gas, years of underinvestment, declining reserves, and lower exploration spending may usher in an upcycle in capital expenditure and reinvestment.
Analysis framework
The report combines cross-asset market review, comparisons of index and sector performance, tracking of rate expectations, observation of fund flows and positioning, IPO fundraising data, and analysis of industry capital spending cycles. Its analytical focus is not a single valuation model, but rather using market prices, fund flows, positioning, earnings expectations, and the macro event calendar to judge changes in risk appetite.
Methodology notes
Compare the price changes since the conflict across assets such as equities, crude oil, commodities, the U.S. dollar, gold, and cryptocurrencies.
This method is used to assess the degree of recovery in risk appetite after the conflict shock and to identify which asset classes have led the rebound.
Track the buying, selling, and position length of hedge funds, single stocks and macro products, and CTA/systematic trading groups.
The report uses positioning percentiles and net buying data to judge whether the market rebound has already been fully chased and how much room remains for further position rebuilding.
Monitor the Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, European Central Bank, U.S. GDP, and earnings from major technology companies.
This framework is used to identify the key catalysts in the coming week that could alter market expectations and risk appetite.
Asset mapping & comparison
Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).
- U.S. mega-cap technology stocks: AMZN, AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, METAImportant assets to watch next week through earnings and the AI theme.
- Strengths
- AI-related sectors are hitting new highs, and major tech earnings may continue to influence NDX and SPX earnings expectations.
- Weaknesses
- Valuations and momentum crowding may already be elevated, and disappointing earnings could amplify volatility.
- Comparison
- NDX is outperforming SPX, making it an important driver of the leadership seen in developed-market equities.
- Risks
- Earnings disappointments, doubts over returns on AI capital spending, and higher rates pressuring valuations.
- Global equitiesHave rebounded significantly since the conflict and are approaching new highs.
- Strengths
- Developed markets and some emerging markets are supported by recovering risk appetite, while earnings expectations continue to be revised higher.
- Weaknesses
- Indian, European, and Japanese equity markets have relatively lagged.
- Comparison
- Developed-market equities are slightly outperforming emerging-market equities, and NDX is stronger than SPX.
- Risks
- Tail risks still exist, and macro policy events and earnings season could change market direction.
- Asian equities and the Hong Kong marketFund flows, IPOs, and southbound flows are important dimensions to watch.
- Strengths
- Hong Kong IPO fundraising has risen sharply year-over-year, with a strong listing pipeline in technology and healthcare.
- Weaknesses
- Foreign inflow recovery into emerging Asia ex-China accounts for only a small portion of the previous outflow peak.
- Comparison
- Japan and Taiwan have seen the highest net foreign buying.
- Risks
- Insufficient foreign capital return, volatile post-IPO performance, and unstable changes in Chinese retail risk appetite.
- Oil & gas and Brent crude oilThe report believes a new upcycle in oil capital spending may be approaching.
- Strengths
- Years of underinvestment, falling reserves, and sharply lower capital and exploration spending versus peak levels support the reinvestment thesis.
- Weaknesses
- Short-term prices are heavily influenced by conflict-related news and geopolitical sentiment.
- Comparison
- Brent crude has outperformed the broader commodities complex during the review window.
- Risks
- Easing conflict leads to lower oil prices, demand expectations are revised down, and shale supply changes.
- GoldAs a safe-haven asset, it underperformed during this window.
- Strengths
- It still has defensive properties when risk is repriced or safe-haven demand rebounds.
- Weaknesses
- It fell 11% during the report window, significantly weaker than crude oil and commodities.
- Comparison
- Gold underperformed Brent, BCOM, the U.S. dollar, and some equity indices.
- Risks
- A stronger U.S. dollar and rising real rates continue to pressure gold.
Key data
- Brent crude oilup 45%The report states that Brent crude prices have risen significantly since the conflict began.
- Commoditiesup 12%Commodities as a whole have risen since the conflict.
- U.S. dollarup 9%DXY-related performance indicates U.S. dollar strength.
- Golddown 11%Gold underperformed during this review window.
- U.S. 10-year Treasury yieldup 40 basis pointsThe report says the U.S. 10-year yield has risen since the conflict.
- Market-implied rate cutsabout 60 basis pointsThe report says the market expects about 60 basis points of rate cuts this year, while Goldman Sachs still expects cuts in September and December.
- CTA/systematic buying of global equitiesUS$170 billionThis group bought global equities this month, with position length approaching 6.5.
- U.S. IPO fundraisingUS$14 billion year-to-dateThe report expects about 100 companies to list this year, with total fundraising potentially reaching US$160 billion.
- Hong Kong IPO fundraisingUS$14 billion year-to-date, up 490% year-over-yearThe report says Hong Kong IPO momentum continued to accelerate in 2026, with about 400 companies in the listing pipeline, concentrated in technology and healthcare.
- Foreign inflow recovery into emerging Asia ex-ChinaUS$17 billion, equivalent to 22% of the prior US$80 billion outflow peakJapan and Taiwan were the regions with the highest net foreign buying as of the report date.
Impact & implications
The investment implication of the report is that short-term risk appetite has recovered, but vulnerabilities have not been fully eliminated. AI, semiconductors, mega-cap technology, energy reinvestment, and capital markets recovery remain the main opportunity areas; at the same time, rate expectations, central bank meetings, large-cap tech earnings, hedge fund positioning, and foreign inflows into Asia will determine whether the rebound can continue.
Risks
- Equity market asymmetry remains relatively poor, and while tail risks have eased, they have not disappeared.
- Global equities have already rebounded sharply, and some momentum, AI, and high-beta trades may be crowded.
- Meetings by the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan could alter rate expectations.
- A concentrated release of earnings from major technology companies could drag on indices if results or guidance disappoint.
- Oil prices and the energy sector are highly dependent on geopolitics, supply-demand dynamics, and capital spending expectations.
What to watch
- Meetings of the Bank of Japan, the Federal Open Market Committee, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank.
- U.S. GDP data and changes in expectations for the next phase of rate cuts.
- Earnings from major technology companies such as GOOGL, MSFT, AMZN, META, and AAPL.
- Post-IPO performance in Hong Kong and the progress of technology and healthcare companies in the listing pipeline.
- Whether net foreign inflows into Japan, Taiwan, and emerging Asia ex-China continue.
- Whether the upcycle in oil and gas capital spending is validated by corporate capital budgets and order data.