Goldman Sachs U.S. Weekly Outlook: Focus on Q2 GDP, Core PCE, and the July FOMC

Overview

This Goldman Sachs U.S. weekly outlook reviews the U.S. macro event calendar for July 27 to August 2, 2026. The report focuses on June durable goods orders, the trade balance, house prices, consumer confidence, the July FOMC meeting, the advance Q2 GDP release, June personal income, spending and PCE inflation, as well as the Q2 Employment Cost Index and the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading.

Core views

Goldman Sachs maintains a relatively solid view on U.S. growth: it expects Q2 GDP to grow at an annualized 2.6%, with consumption growth rebounding to 2.3% from 0.5% in Q1, while business fixed investment remains strong and equipment investment rises 17.1%. On inflation, Goldman Sachs expects Q2 core PCE to rise at an annualized 3.46%, and June core PCE at 0.18% month over month and 3.32% year over year, indicating inflation remains above target but has moderated from the prior reading. On policy, Goldman Sachs believes the FOMC will most likely keep the federal funds rate range unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, because June inflation data were soft, the Fed has historically avoided surprise rate hikes, and there is no Summary of Economic Projections at this meeting.

Analysis framework

The report uses a combination of an event calendar and Goldman Sachs forecast tracking, presenting Goldman Sachs forecasts, market consensus expectations, and prior readings side by side, while explaining the drivers behind key data. Durable goods order forecasts reference commercial aircraft orders and new orders components in manufacturing surveys; the GDP forecast breaks down consumption, business fixed investment, equipment investment, net exports, and domestic final sales; inflation forecasts distinguish core PCE, headline PCE, and year-over-year measures; Employment Cost Index forecasts incorporate benefits growth, wage and salary growth, the Atlanta Fed wage tracker, and average hourly earnings signals.

Methodology notes

• Macro Event PreviewWeekly Economic Data Calendar

  List key upcoming macro data releases, policy meetings, and Goldman Sachs forecasts by date.

  This framework is used to help investors identify short-term market catalysts and compare differences among Goldman Sachs forecasts, market consensus expectations, and historical prior readings.

• Policy AnalysisFOMC Meeting Preview

  Assess the impact of the rate decision, statement language, dissenting votes, and the press conference on market expectations.

  The report believes the FOMC will most likely leave rates unchanged at this meeting, but the statement may acknowledge upside inflation risks from geopolitical conflict, and there may be at least one dissenter in favor of a rate hike.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• U.S. Rates

  The FOMC meeting, GDP, and PCE data will directly affect front-end rates and expectations for rate cuts/hikes.

  Strengths

  The growth forecast is relatively strong, and if realized could reinforce the higher-for-longer rate narrative.

  Weaknesses

  Slower core PCE and wage growth may limit the extent of hawkish repricing.

  Comparison

  Goldman Sachs' Q2 GDP forecast is above consensus, while its core PCE forecast is broadly close to consensus.

  Risks

  Geopolitical conflict could trigger upside inflation risks, or the FOMC could deliver more hawkish-than-expected signals.

• U.S. Dollar and U.S. Macro Risk Assets

  Growth resilience, the inflation path, and policy communication will affect the U.S. dollar, equities, and credit risk appetite.

  Strengths

  The rebound in consumption and business investment supports the soft-landing narrative for the economy.

  Weaknesses

  Net exports are expected to subtract 1.3 percentage points from Q2 GDP, and inflation remains at a relatively high level.

  Comparison

  Goldman Sachs is more optimistic on growth, but its inflation view is not materially below market expectations.

  Risks

  If the data are significantly weaker than expected, the growth resilience narrative may be weakened; if inflation is higher than expected, rate pressure may rise again.

Key data

• Advance Q2 GDPGoldman Sachs forecast +2.6%, consensus +2.1%, prior +2.1%Seasonally adjusted annualized quarter-over-quarter; Goldman Sachs forecast is above consensus.
• Q2 Personal ConsumptionGoldman Sachs forecast +2.3%, consensus +2.3%, prior +0.5%The rebound in consumption is an important support for Goldman Sachs' Q2 growth forecast.
• Q2 Core PCE InflationGoldman Sachs forecast +3.46%, consensus +3.5%, prior +4.4%Annualized quarter-over-quarter basis; Goldman Sachs also estimates year-over-year at 3.35%.
• June Core PCE Price IndexGoldman Sachs forecast +0.18% month over month, +3.32% year over yearConsensus expectations are +0.2% month over month and +3.3% year over year, respectively.
• July FOMC Rate RangeExpected to remain unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%Goldman Sachs believes market pricing indicates elevated uncertainty around the meeting outcome, but most voting members are unlikely to push for a surprise rate hike.
• Advance June Durable Goods OrdersGoldman Sachs forecast +1.0%, consensus +1.8%, prior -4.5%Goldman Sachs expects tracking of commercial aircraft orders to indicate a rebound in durable goods orders.
• Q2 Employment Cost IndexGoldman Sachs forecast +0.8%, consensus +0.8%, prior +0.9%Goldman Sachs expects the year-over-year growth rate to slow to 3.2%, the slowest annual wage growth pace since Q2 2021.
• Goldman Sachs Tracking IndicatorsQ2 GDP tracking +2.6%; advance July Current Activity Indicator +4.2%; US MAP economic surprise index 0.6These indicators reflect Goldman Sachs' internal tracking of U.S. economic activity and data surprises.

Impact & implications

If Goldman Sachs' forecasts are realized, the market may see a combination of continued resilience in U.S. growth and slowly cooling inflation that has not yet fully returned near target. This combination supports the FOMC keeping rates unchanged in the near term while remaining alert to upside inflation risks. GDP above consensus could support risk assets and upward pressure on U.S. dollar rates, but slower month-over-month core PCE and cooling wage growth could ease expectations for further rate hikes.

Risks

• If the FOMC statement places greater emphasis on upside inflation risks, or if multiple dissenters support a rate hike, it could trigger hawkish repricing in rates markets.
• If Q2 GDP, consumption, or business investment come in below Goldman Sachs' forecasts, it could weaken the view of resilient U.S. growth.
• If core PCE or headline PCE come in above expectations, it could delay market expectations for policy easing.
• A renewed escalation in geopolitical conflict could lift inflation expectations and increase policy uncertainty.
• This report is a macro outlook and does not provide stock-level views on earnings, valuation, or target prices.

What to watch

• Whether the post-July FOMC statement acknowledges upside inflation risks arising from geopolitical conflict.
• How Chair Warsh describes the rate path, inflation risks, and committee disagreements at the press conference.
• The contribution of consumption, business fixed investment, equipment investment, and net exports in the advance Q2 GDP release.
• Whether June core PCE month-over-month is close to Goldman Sachs' forecast of 0.18%.
• Whether the Q2 Employment Cost Index year-over-year slows to 3.2%, and whether wage and salary growth continues to moderate.
• Whether the University of Michigan 5-10 year inflation expectations remain at 3.3%.