China real estate weekly transactions remain under pressure, with relatively steadier improvement in secondary homes

Overview

This report is Morgan Stanley's weekly database tracker on China's real estate sector, focusing on primary and secondary home registered sales, sell-through rates, listing price tracking indices, and agent indices for the week ended June 28, 2026. Overall, primary home sales were still down year over year, but the decline narrowed slightly from the previous week; secondary home sales were nearly flat year over year and better than the previous week; sell-through improved week over week.

Core views

The core message of the report is that the fundamentals of China's real estate sales remain in a state of recovery and divergence. On the primary home side, weekly registered units sold in 50 cities fell 13% year over year, and were down 12% year over year year to date, indicating that the new home market remains under pressure; on the secondary home side, weekly registered units sold in 10 cities fell only 1% year over year and were up 5% year over year year to date, showing stronger relative resilience; sell-through rose from 47% to 53%, indicating improved short-term sales absorption. By city tier, tier-1 and tier-2 cities still posted negative year-over-year primary home sales, while tier-3 cities turned positive for the week but remained volatile.

Analysis framework

The report uses a weekly high-frequency database tracking approach, comparing primary home registered sales in 50 cities, secondary home registered sales in 10 cities, city-tier performance, sell-through rates, listing price indices, and agent indices on both week-over-week and year-over-year bases, and combines this with year-to-date cumulative performance to assess industry trends.

Methodology notes

• High-frequency data trackingWeekly Real Estate Sales Database

  Year-over-year tracking of primary and secondary home registered sales

  By using weekly year-over-year changes, prior-week comparisons, and year-to-date cumulative year-over-year changes in registered units sold for primary homes in 50 cities and secondary homes in 10 cities, the report tracks changes in China's real estate sales momentum.

• Inventory and sales absorptionSell-through Rate Analysis

  sell-through rate

  Sell-through rate is used to measure current-period sales absorption. The report shows total sell-through at 53%, up from 47% in the previous week, with tier-1 cities at 58% and tier-2 cities at 38%.

• Industry viewMorgan Stanley Analyst Industry View

  In-Line

  Morgan Stanley classifies industry views as Attractive, In-Line, and Cautious; this report discloses an Asia Pacific industry view of In-Line, indicating expectations for performance broadly in line with the relevant market benchmark.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Chinese real estate developer equities

  Assets directly related to the sector

  Strengths

  Secondary home sales are positive year to date, sell-through improved week over week, and short-term data improved in some city tiers.

  Weaknesses

  Primary home sales are still declining year over year, with year-to-date primary home sales in 50 cities at -12% year over year, indicating that the new home market recovery remains fragile.

  Comparison

  Secondary home performance is clearly better than primary homes, with year-to-date secondary home sales in 10 cities at +5% year over year, versus -12% year over year for primary home sales in 50 cities.

  Risks

  If primary home transactions remain weak, developers' cash flow, margins, and willingness to invest in land may continue to face pressure.

• Hong Kong-listed and A-share listed mainland property companies

  Assets related to the report's coverage universe

  Strengths

  Some companies are rated Overweight, such as China Resources Land Ltd., C &D International Investment Group Ltd, Seazen Group Ltd, Seazen Holdings Company Ltd., and Yuexiu Property Co Ltd.

  Weaknesses

  The coverage universe also includes Equal-weight and Underweight ratings, indicating significant differences in fundamentals and risks within the sector.

  Comparison

  Company ratings listed in the report range from Overweight to Equal-weight to Underweight, and should be differentiated based on individual ratings, valuations, and financial quality.

  Risks

  Ratings may change; Morgan Stanley discloses investment banking or other service relationships with some covered companies, and investors should pay attention to potential conflict-of-interest disclosures.

Key data

• Report date2026-06-29The report cover page time is June 29, 2026 01:33 PM GMT.
• Weekly registered primary home units sold in 50 citiesYoY -13%Previous week was YoY -16%; year to date is YoY -12%.
• Tier-1 city primary home salesYoY -21%Previous week was YoY -11%.
• Tier-2 city primary home salesYoY -15%Previous week was YoY -10%.
• Tier-3 city primary home salesYoY +7%Previous week was YoY -38%.
• Weekly registered secondary home units sold in 10 citiesYoY -1%Previous week was YoY -15%; year to date is YoY +5%.
• Tier-1 city secondary home salesFlat YoYPrevious week was YoY -10%.
• Tier-2 city secondary home salesYoY -0.4%Previous week was YoY -19%.
• Total sell-through rate53%Previous week was 47%.
• Tier-1 city sell-through rate58%Previous week was 59%.
• Tier-2 city sell-through rate38%Previous week was 24%.
• Centaline six-city secondary home listing price tracking index17.0%Previous week was 17.3%.
• Tier-1 city real estate agent index51.6Previous week was 51.0.
• Asia Pacific industry viewIn-LineThe report discloses the Asia Pacific Industry View as In-Line.

Impact & implications

The investment implication is neutral: improvement in secondary home transactions and sell-through suggests demand is not continuously deteriorating, but year-to-date primary home sales remain negative, indicating that developers still face pressure on new home sales, cash collection, and earnings recovery. For real estate developer equities, investors should focus on differences in balance sheet quality, city exposure, substitution between primary and secondary homes, and the degree of policy support.

Risks

• Continued year-over-year declines in primary home sales could affect developers' cash flow and willingness to start new projects.
• Performance differs by city tier: tier-1 and tier-2 primary home sales remain negative, while the improvement in tier-3 cities this week may be volatile.
• The decline in the secondary home listing price tracking index may reflect still-weak price expectations.
• The report includes disclosures of Morgan Stanley's investment banking or other service relationships with multiple covered companies, so research objectivity should be assessed carefully in conjunction with conflict-of-interest statements.
• Regulatory disclosures indicate that the research report does not constitute personalized investment advice, and ratings and prices may change with updated research.

What to watch

• Whether the year-over-year decline in primary home sales across 50 cities continues to narrow.
• Whether the year-to-date positive growth in secondary home sales across 10 cities can continue.
• Whether total sell-through can remain above 50%, while monitoring differences between tier-1 and tier-2 cities.
• Whether the Centaline six-city secondary home listing price tracking index continues to decline.
• Whether the tier-1 city real estate agent index continues to improve.
• Whether further changes emerge in policy support, mortgage conditions, and developer financing conditions.