Two MOL vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz, and the short-term earnings impact is expected to be small

Overview

This report focuses on the latest developments for Japanese shipping companies amid transit disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd. disclosed that two related vessels have passed through the strait, including the ballast LNG carrier SOHAR LNG and the LPG carrier GREEN SANVI. The report believes the direct impact of this transit event on MOL earnings is likely small, but a large number of Japan-related vessels remain stranded in the Persian Gulf, making transit normalization the key variable.

Core views

The core view is that the successful passage of two MOL vessels through the Strait of Hormuz is a marginally positive signal, but it is not enough to conclude that transit has fully recovered. The impact on MOL earnings is difficult to quantify because the vessel operating model and charter structure are unknown, but relative to the fleet size of 937 vessels, the impact is expected to be limited. The report also reiterates the methodology for the 12-month target prices of major Japanese shipping companies, with main risks coming from FX, the U.S. consumer environment, shareholder returns, and volatility in ONE dividend income.

Analysis framework

The report primarily uses event tracking and an assessment of company fundamentals, combining vessel transit status, the number of stranded vessels, fleet size, and the target-price valuation methodology to judge the impact. The target price is based on a P/B multiple applied to FY3/27E year-end book value per share.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsTarget P/B valuation method

  A target P/B multiple is applied to FY3/27E year-end book value per share to derive the 12-month target price.

  Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd. uses a target P/B of 0.73x, while Nippon Yusen KK and Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd. use a target P/B of 0.65x.

• Factor analysisGS Factor Profile

  Compares a stock's relative position versus the market and industry peers across growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite metrics.

  Growth is based on forward sales, EBITDA, and EPS growth; financial returns are based on ROE, ROCE, and CROCI; valuation multiples are based on metrics such as P/E, P/B, P/D, EV/EBITDA, and EV/FCF.

• M&A probabilityM&A Rank

  Goldman Sachs uses a 1-to-3 scale to score the probability that covered companies become acquisition targets.

  1 represents a high probability of 30%-50%, 2 represents a medium probability of 15%-30%, and 3 represents a low probability of 0%-15%; an M&A component may be included in the target price for a rank of 1 or 2.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd.

  Core coverage company; MOL vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz is the main theme of the report.

  Strengths

  Large fleet size, 937 vessels as of the end of December 2025, so the impact of a single vessel event on overall earnings is expected to be limited.

  Weaknesses

  The earnings structure of the vessels is unknown, making the short-term earnings impact difficult to quantify precisely.

  Comparison

  Compared with other Japanese shipping companies, MOL is the company directly involved in this event.

  Risks

  Yen appreciation versus the U.S. dollar, a slowdown in the U.S. consumer environment, shareholder returns below expectations, and dividend income from subsidiary ONE below expectations.

• Nippon Yusen KK

  A related company within the same Japanese shipping coverage universe.

  Strengths

  The report provides a 12-month target price and a P/B valuation method.

  Weaknesses

  Affected by FX, the U.S. consumer environment, and changes in dividends.

  Comparison

  Like MOL and Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd., it belongs to Goldman Sachs' Japan transportation coverage universe.

  Risks

  FX volatility, fluctuations in the U.S. consumer environment, dividend changes, and volatility in ONE dividend income.

• Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd.

  A related company within the same Japanese shipping coverage universe.

  Strengths

  The report provides a 12-month target price and a P/B valuation method.

  Weaknesses

  The target price is relatively low versus the disclosed price, indicating more obvious valuation pressure.

  Comparison

  It uses the same 0.65x target P/B valuation as Nippon Yusen KK.

  Risks

  FX volatility, fluctuations in the U.S. consumer environment, dividend changes, and volatility in ONE dividend income.

Key data

• Report date2026-04-05 7:01PM JSTDisclosed on the report cover.
• MOL-related vessels that have passed through the Strait of Hormuz2 vesselsIncluding SOHAR LNG and GREEN SANVI.
• Japan-related vessels still stranded in the Persian Gulf43 vesselsThe number after the two vessels passed.
• MOL fleet size937 vesselsAs of the end of December 2025.
• Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd. 12-month target price¥6,500Based on a target P/B of 0.73x.
• Nippon Yusen KK 12-month target price¥5,200Based on a target P/B of 0.65x.
• Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd. 12-month target price¥1,800Based on a target P/B of 0.65x.

Impact & implications

If transit through the Strait of Hormuz gradually recovers, operational uncertainty for Japanese shipping companies in the Persian Gulf may ease; however, before normalization is confirmed, the market still needs to monitor route availability, vessel stranding, energy transport, and potential geopolitical disruptions. For MOL, the direct earnings contribution from just two vessels may be limited, and the real question is whether stranded vessels can continue to resume transit.

Risks

• It remains unclear whether transit through the Strait of Hormuz has truly returned to normal.
• 43 Japan-related vessels are still stranded in the Persian Gulf.
• Yen appreciation versus the U.S. dollar may affect the earnings of Japanese shipping companies.
• A slowdown in the U.S. consumer environment may weigh on shipping demand.
• Shareholder returns below expectations or changes in dividend policy.
• Dividend income from subsidiary ONE below expectations or subject to volatility.
• Geopolitical and regulatory changes may affect energy and cargo transport channels.

What to watch

• Whether Iran formally reopens the Strait of Hormuz.
• Progress on Iran and Oman's proposed transit agreement for the strait.
• Whether the number of stranded Japan-related vessels continues to decline.
• The charter or operating structure of the two vessels that MOL discloses later.
• Whether vessels operated by non-Japanese carriers such as CMA CGM continue to pass through.
• Subsequent changes in shareholder returns and ONE dividend income among Japan's three major shipping companies.