Goldman Sachs reiterates Lasertec Buy rating: ACTIS order momentum could accelerate in FY6/27

Overview

After a conference call with Lasertec's IR team on May 21, 2026, Goldman Sachs released this report to summarize order trends, demand by application, and earnings outlook. The report says that although the stock has been weak after earnings, ACTIS-related order accumulation is running ahead of expectations from three months ago, appetite for advanced-node investment is strengthening further, and order momentum could accelerate from FY6/27 onward; therefore, Goldman reiterates its Buy rating and keeps the stock on the Conviction List.

Core views

The core view is that Lasertec's order upside is mainly supported by broader ACTIS adoption, progress in A200HiT orders, advanced-node investment in logic/foundry, and DRAM-related MATRICS demand. The company raised FY6/26 order guidance to ¥200-240bn, and management expects 2H FY6/27 order levels to rise further as A14-generation node migration and ACTIS adoption broaden. Goldman also believes the company's competitive advantage in EUV mask inspection equipment should remain intact in the near term.

Analysis framework

The report combines conference-call minutes with management guidance to assess orders, application demand, capacity, competitive positioning, and valuation. On the order side, it tracks the semiannual cadence from FY6/26 through FY6/27 and A200HiT order conversion; on the demand side, it separates logic/foundry, DRAM, mask shops, and High-NA EUV scenarios; on valuation, it uses the global SPE sector average EV/EBITDA multiple plus an industry-relative premium.

Methodology notes

• valuation methodEV/EBITDA relative valuation

  12-month target price

  Goldman Sachs' 12-month target price of ¥55,000 is based on the global SPE sector average of 18x EV/EBITDA applied to FY6/27-FY6/28 forecasts, plus a 50% industry-relative premium; this valuation implies FY6/27E P/E of 51x and P/B of 15x.

• investment rating frameworkBuy / Neutral / Sell and Conviction List

  rating and list membership

  Goldman Sachs classifies stocks as Buy, Neutral, or Sell based on total return potential versus the relative coverage universe; the Conviction List is a more focused subset of Buy-rated stocks. This report reiterates Lasertec as Buy and on the Conviction List.

• factor frameworkGS Factor Profile

  growth, financial return, valuation multiple, and composite percentile

  GS Factor Profile compares stocks with the market and industry peers across growth, financial return, valuation multiples, and composite metrics to provide investment context; this disclosure is Goldman Sachs' standard methodology note.

• M&A frameworkM&A Rank

  takeover-target probability tiers

  Goldman Sachs uses M&A Rank across global coverage to assess the likelihood that a company becomes a takeover target, where 1 indicates high probability, 2 medium probability, and 3 low probability; this is a disclosure note and is not a core basis for the investment conclusion on Lasertec.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Lasertec (6920.T)

  The report covers the company as a Japanese semiconductor equipment name with core exposure to demand for EUV mask inspection equipment, ACTIS, A200HiT, MATRICS, and MAGICS products.

  Strengths

  ACTIS order accumulation is ahead of expectations, A200HiT has already received orders from multiple customers, logic/foundry advanced-node investment momentum is improving, the competitive landscape for EUV mask inspection equipment has not changed materially, and the company says existing capacity can support the FY6/30 sales target.

  Weaknesses

  1H FY6/26 orders were about ¥70bn, so near-term order momentum had been weak; full adoption of ACTIS at memory wafer fabs will still take time; and the valuation is based on a high multiple and an industry-relative premium, which requires strong growth delivery.

  Comparison

  Goldman Sachs compares Lasertec's rating against companies in the coverage universe such as Advantest, DISCO, Ebara, HOYA, JEOL, Kioxia Holdings, SCREEN Holdings, Tokyo Electron, Tokyo Seimitsu, and Ulvac.

  Risks

  Market share loss from new entrants, insufficient progress in ACTIS adoption at wafer fabs, weakening customer appetite for leading-edge process-node investment, and rapid yen appreciation versus the U.S. dollar.

Key data

• FY6/26 order guidance¥200-240bnPreviously ¥170-220bn, with the midpoint raised by about ¥25bn, mainly due to ACTIS order accumulation being faster than expected and stronger inquiry activity for mask blanks equipment such as MAGICS.
• 1H FY6/26 ordersabout ¥70bnOrders were weak in the first half, but management expects a significant improvement in the second half.
• 2H FY6/26 order outlook¥130-170bnManagement expects 2H FY6/26 orders to be significantly higher than 1H FY6/26.
• 1H FY6/27 order outlooksimilar to 2H FY6/26Management expects orders in the first half of FY6/27 to remain at a relatively high level.
• 2H FY6/27 order trendfurther increaseDriven mainly by broader ACTIS adoption, A200HiT, and A14-generation node migration.
• A200HiT orders and shipmentsinitial order in 2Q, multi-customer multi-unit orders in 3Q, first shipment in 1Q FY6/27Additional orders may still be received in 4Q; current orders appear to be mainly for 2/3nm nodes, while demand for the A14 generation is expected to scale after customer evaluations are completed.
• FY6/26 order outlook midpoint and sales guidanceboth ¥220bnAs a result, the company expects year-end order backlog to be flat year on year, but FY6/27 revenue still has room to grow.
• FY6/30 sales target¥400-500bnThe company says existing capacity can support this target and future demand growth.
• 12-month target price¥55,000Based on 18x EV/EBITDA and a 50% industry-relative premium.
• Key risksnew entrants, ACTIS adoption, customer investment appetite, yen exchange rateThe report lists risks such as market share loss, insufficient progress in ACTIS adoption at wafer fabs, weakening investment appetite for advanced-node customers, and rapid yen appreciation versus the U.S. dollar.

Impact & implications

If ACTIS and A200HiT orders accelerate in FY6/27 as management expects, Lasertec's visibility and revenue growth expectations could be revised up, supporting Goldman Sachs' valuation premium to the sector. For the semiconductor equipment chain, investment in logic/foundry advanced nodes, High-NA EUV, multiple patterning, and DRAM-related projects may all increase demand for mask inspection equipment; however, if customer capex slows or ACTIS adoption at wafer fabs falls short of expectations, order and valuation support would come under pressure.

Risks

• New entrants could cause Lasertec's market share to decline.
• If ACTIS adoption at wafer fabs does not progress sufficiently, the order-acceleration thesis would weaken.
• If customer appetite for advanced process-node investment weakens, demand from logic/foundry customers would be affected.
• Rapid yen appreciation versus the U.S. dollar could hurt earnings and valuation.
• Demand for A200HiT and the A14 generation still depends on completion of customer evaluations and subsequent order conversion.

What to watch

• Whether orders in 2H FY6/26 reach the ¥130-170bn range.
• Whether 1H FY6/27 orders remain at a high level similar to 2H FY6/26.
• Whether 2H FY6/27 sees the further order step-up expected by management.
• Additional A200HiT orders in 4Q, the first shipment in 1Q FY6/27, and the pace of A14-generation demand ramp-up.
• The intensity of capital spending by customers in the U.S., Korea, and Taiwan for advanced nodes and new fabs.
• The pull on demand for A300 and other mask inspection equipment from High-NA EUV or multiple-patterning paths.
• Revenue contribution from the service business as the installed base expands in FY6/27.
• Whether competitors in EUV mask inspection equipment release prototypes or achieve technical breakthroughs.