China's April PMIs diverged, with manufacturing price pressure still high and non-manufacturing weakening

Overview

This report assesses China's official NBS manufacturing PMI, official non-manufacturing PMI, and RatingDog manufacturing PMI for April. The core conclusion is that manufacturing sentiment signals diverged: the official manufacturing PMI weakened slightly, while the RatingDog manufacturing PMI rebounded notably. Meanwhile, non-manufacturing activity fell below the expansion-contraction line, and price indicators remained elevated.

Core views

The report's core views include: first, the decline in the NBS manufacturing PMI was mainly driven by slower new orders, while output and employment sub-indexes improved slightly; second, export-related sub-indexes improved, with both new export orders and imports returning above 50; third, the RatingDog PMI performed more strongly, possibly reflecting greater coverage of export-oriented firms in its sample and different seasonal residuals; fourth, services and construction slowed at the same time, pulling the official non-manufacturing PMI down to 49.4; fifth, manufacturing price sub-indexes remained persistently high, pointing to continued cost-push inflationary pressure.

Analysis framework

The report uses a macro high-frequency data interpretation approach, comparing the official NBS PMI, RatingDog PMI, key sub-indexes, market expectations, and prior readings, and breaks down the sources of change from the perspectives of industry, enterprise size, trade, inventories, prices, and non-manufacturing activity.

Methodology notes

• Macro indicator trackingPMI sentiment analysis

  PMI uses 50 as the expansion-contraction line; readings above 50 usually indicate expansion, while readings below 50 indicate contraction.

  By comparing the headline indexes and sub-index changes of manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs, the report assesses marginal changes in China's economic activity, demand, production, employment, trade, and price pressure.

• Expectation gap analysisAsia-MAP

  Asia-MAP is used to measure a data release's relevance to growth and the degree of surprise relative to consensus.

  The report gives the official manufacturing PMI an Asia-MAP reading of 0(3,0), indicating growth relevance of 3/5 and a consensus surprise of 0, meaning the data did not deviate significantly from market expectations.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• China macro assets

  Directly related

  Strengths

  Manufacturing remained in expansion territory, export orders improved, and the RatingDog manufacturing PMI rose significantly.

  Weaknesses

  The official non-manufacturing PMI fell below 50, while services and construction weakened at the same time.

  Comparison

  The official NBS manufacturing PMI was weaker than the RatingDog manufacturing PMI, and the report believes differences in sample coverage and seasonal factors may explain the divergence.

  Risks

  If non-manufacturing weakness continues, it may undermine overall growth momentum.

• China equity market

  Indirectly related

  Strengths

  Export-oriented manufacturing and some equipment manufacturing-related industries showed stronger order and production sub-indexes.

  Weaknesses

  The PMI for large enterprises fell from 51.6 to 50.2, and weaker non-manufacturing activity may weigh on sentiment toward cyclical and consumption-related sectors.

  Comparison

  The PMIs for medium and small enterprises rose to 50.5 and 50.1 respectively, showing better marginal changes than large enterprises.

  Risks

  If rising costs are difficult to pass through, margins in some manufacturing sectors may be squeezed.

• Commodities and inflation-linked assets

  Indirectly related

  Strengths

  Input cost and ex-factory price sub-indexes remained elevated, showing that price pressure was still strong.

  Weaknesses

  Manufacturing activity weakened in some petroleum, coal and fuel processing, chemical raw materials, and chemical products industries.

  Comparison

  Both the NBS and RatingDog manufacturing PMIs showed elevated price sub-indexes.

  Risks

  If cost shocks related to the Middle East conflict persist, cost-push inflationary pressure may be prolonged.

Key data

• China official NBS manufacturing PMI50.3 in April 2026 and 50.4 in March; Goldman Sachs forecast 50.0, while Bloomberg consensus expected 50.1.The index remained above 50 but edged down from the previous month.
• Official non-manufacturing PMI49.4 in April 2026 and 50.1 in March; Goldman Sachs forecast 49.7, while Bloomberg consensus expected 49.8.Both services and construction slowed.
• RatingDog manufacturing PMI52.2 in April 2026 and 50.8 in March; Goldman Sachs forecast 51.0, while Bloomberg consensus expected 51.0.It was significantly above the previous reading and expectations, reflecting improvements in new orders and production.
• NBS manufacturing new export orders sub-index50.3 in April 2026 and 49.1 in March.Export orders returned to expansion territory.
• NBS manufacturing input costs sub-index63.7 in April 2026 and 63.9 in March.Although it edged down, it remained elevated.
• NBS manufacturing ex-factory prices sub-index55.1 in April 2026 and 55.4 in March.Price pressure remained evident.
• Services PMI49.6 in April 2026 and 50.2 in March.Services activity shifted from expansion to contraction.
• Construction PMI48.0 in April 2026 and 49.3 in March.The report states this was the lowest level except during the nationwide lockdown period in 2020, partly affected by heavy rainfall in southern China.

Impact & implications

For investment research, the April PMI data do not support a one-directional macro conclusion. Stronger manufacturing export and price sub-indexes may reinforce attention on external demand and inflationary pressure, while the clear weakening in official non-manufacturing shows that domestic-demand services and construction activity remain under pressure. Overall, the market needs to track growth resilience, cost pass-through, and policy responses at the same time.

Risks

• The non-manufacturing PMI fell below 50, and slower services and construction may drag on growth.
• Price sub-indexes remained persistently high, and cost-push inflation may squeeze corporate profits and affect policy trade-offs.
• The divergence between the official NBS PMI and the RatingDog PMI increases uncertainty in judging the true state of manufacturing sentiment.
• Temporary factors such as heavy rainfall in southern China may have distorted construction data, and subsequent data are needed to verify whether this was a short-term shock.

What to watch

• Whether subsequent NBS manufacturing new orders and new export orders can continue to stay above 50.
• Whether the non-manufacturing PMI returns above the expansion-contraction line, especially the services and construction sub-indexes.
• Whether input cost and ex-factory price sub-indexes fall back, or continue to reflect cost-push inflationary pressure.
• Whether the sentiment gap between export-oriented firms and domestic-demand-oriented firms widens.
• The continued impact of the Middle East conflict and raw material prices on Chinese manufacturing costs.