Taiwan SPE imports up 58% YoY in June, supporting a positive view on Japanese/EU semiconductor equipment

Overview

This report tracks Taiwan Ministry of Finance semiconductor equipment import data for June 2026 and runs regression analysis using relevant import categories against covered companies’ Taiwan revenue. The key conclusion is that Taiwan foundry capex remains strong; in June, Taiwan SPE imports surged both year-on-year and month-on-month, providing an overall positive signal for Japanese and European semiconductor equipment companies.

Core views

Taiwan SPE imports showed a strong rebound in June, up 58% YoY and 46% MoM on a global basis, while imports from Japan were up 44% YoY and 67% MoM; the 3-month moving average also remained positive. Breaking this by company, ASML benefits most, with Taiwan lithography imports strongly correlated with systems sales; Advantest tester data are modestly above consensus; TEL has strong monthly import momentum but quarterly regression results remain below consensus; Screen cleaning equipment imports have recovered, with regression results significantly above consensus.

Analysis framework

The report maps Taiwan import data by equipment category to covered companies’ business exposure and uses monthly imports, 3-month moving averages, and a quarterly regression model to assess company-level Taiwan sales trends, and compares these with market consensus expectations.

Methodology notes

• Data trackingTaiwan semiconductor equipment import tracking

  Use Taiwan import data as a high-frequency proxy for SPE demand and covered companies’ Taiwan revenue.

  Taiwan is a key region for advanced-node capex expansion globally, and import data can reflect equipment delivery and capex intensity, especially useful for tracking the revenue trend of Japanese and European equipment vendors in Taiwan.

• Quantitative regressionRegression of import data against company Taiwan sales

  Use 3-month import data by equipment category to estimate company Taiwan quarterly sales.

  The report runs regressions using relevant import categories for Advantest, ASML, Tokyo Electron, and Screen, and assesses upside/downside risk to quarterly revenue versus market consensus.

• Trend smoothing3-month moving average

  Use a 3-month average to smooth volatility in monthly import figures.

  Import data can be volatile due to lot-based deliveries and month-to-month fluctuations; a 3-month moving average is used to determine quarterly revenue trends more robustly.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Advantest Corp (6857.JP)

  Tester imports are highly correlated with Taiwan SoC tester revenue

  Strengths

  Tester imports rose 4% MoM and 6% YoY in June; regression estimates Taiwan sales +5% QoQ, slightly above consensus.

  Weaknesses

  3-month average MoM -6%, indicating the quarterly trend beyond the monthly rebound still needs to be monitored.

  Comparison

  Compared with consensus JunQ revenue growth of +2%, model output shows slight upside potential.

  Risks

  Volatility in AI-related GPU and HBM demand, changes in competitive landscape, and FX movements.

• ASML Holding NV (ASML; ASML.NA)

  Taiwan lithography imports are strongly correlated with ASML Taiwan systems sales

  Strengths

  June lithography imports to Taiwan were €1.2bn, up 120% MoM and 44% YoY; 3-month import-based model estimates Taiwan systems sales at €2.66bn.

  Weaknesses

  Monthly import data are volatile, and the monthly surge may reflect delivery timing.

  Comparison

  Model estimates Taiwan sales +84% QoQ and +36% YoY, the second strongest quarter on record, and could account for about 42% of total systems sales.

  Risks

  Higher-than-expected EUV and advanced EUV commercialization costs, excess inventory buildup at Chinese customers, WFE market weakness versus expectations, slower technology migration, and tighter China export controls.

• Tokyo Electron Ltd (8035.JP)

  Maps TEL Taiwan revenue to related import categories such as CVD, dry etch, cleaning, coat/develop, and RTP

  Strengths

  Related import categories in June rose 57% MoM and 107% YoY, showing strong monthly performance.

  Weaknesses

  Some equipment categories are not broken down by country in import reporting, so correlation is imperfect; regression estimates JunQ Taiwan sales at -1%.

  Comparison

  Compared with consensus +8% QoQ, model results indicate slight downside risk.

  Risks

  Changes in U.S. trade restrictions, shifts in global semiconductor demand that alter capex, and adverse currency moves involving the yen or broader Japanese market-linked FX.

• Screen Holdings Co Ltd (7735.JP)

  Taiwan cleaning equipment imports are directionally correlated with Screen’s Taiwan revenue

  Strengths

  Cleaning equipment imports have recovered, up 37% MoM and 58% YoY in June; regression estimates JunQ Taiwan sales +16%.

  Weaknesses

  Taiwan’s Ministry of Finance does not disclose cleaning equipment imports by country, only global totals, so correlation is weaker than for other equipment categories.

  Comparison

  Compared with consensus -14% QoQ, the model indicates clear upside, but Bernstein still rates it Market-Perform.

  Risks

  Demand weakness from a Chinese investment peak, accelerating domestic substitution in China, and adverse FX moves; upside risks include stronger-than-expected adoption of direct imaging and wet etch, and a further easing competitive environment.

Key data

• Total Taiwan SPE importsJune global total $6.4bn, +58% YoY, +46% MoMSPE imports from Japan were $1,165mn, +67% MoM; 3-month moving average global +8%, Japan +6%.
• Advantest-related tester importsJune Japan + Malaysia combined $638mn, +4% MoM, +6% YoY3-month average MoM -6%; regression estimates Advantest Taiwan sales +5% QoQ, slightly above consensus +2%.
• ASML-related lithography importsJune €1.2bn, +120% MoM, +44% YoY; quarter €2.62bn, about +80% QoQRegression estimates ASML Taiwan quarterly systems sales at €2.66bn, +84% QoQ, +36% YoY, accounting for about 42% of total systems sales.
• Tokyo Electron-related WFE importsJune related-category imports +57% MoM and +107% YoY3-month moving average +6% MoM; regression estimates TEL Taiwan sales at -1% QoQ, below consensus +8%.
• Screen-related cleaning equipment importsJune cleaning equipment imports +37% MoM and +58% YoY3-month moving average +3% MoM; regression estimates Screen Taiwan sales +16% QoQ, above consensus -14%.

Impact & implications

The data reinforces the support from Taiwan advanced-node expansion for semiconductor equipment demand. ASML and Screen have a more constructive relative signal versus consensus for Taiwan revenue estimates, Advantest is slightly constructive, while TEL, despite strong monthly imports, shows a weaker quarterly regression result. Overall, resilience in Taiwan capex supports Bernstein’s positive view on Japanese/EU SPE.

Risks

• Import data are volatile from month to month, and monthly spikes may be influenced by delivery timing.
• Some equipment categories lack country-breakdown data, making company-level revenue mapping imperfect.
• Semiconductor capex may be affected by end-market demand, AI-related demand, and storage and logic cycles.
• Export controls, trade restrictions, and domestic substitution in China may affect equipment makers’ orders and revenue.
• FX volatility may affect revenue, valuation, and target prices for Japanese and European equipment makers.

What to watch

• Whether Taiwan SPE 3-month moving average imports continue to trend higher.
• TSMC expansion progress and its pull-through to demand for lithography, test, etch, and cleaning equipment.
• Whether ASML Taiwan systems sales share of total systems sales stays at a high level.
• Whether TEL’s strong monthly related-equipment import data can translate into quarterly revenue.
• Whether the recovery in Screen cleaning equipment imports proves durable.
• Further changes in U.S. and other regions’ export controls on semiconductor equipment to China.