Goldman Sachs expects Apple F2Q26 results to beat expectations, driven by iPhone, Mac, forex, and gross margin

Overview

This is a Goldman Sachs preview report on Apple Inc.'s F2Q26 results. The report argues that the market is overly pessimistic about concerns over DRAM price increases, smartphone gross margin pressure, demand destruction, and component shortages; supported by its premium smartphone performance, supply access capabilities, pricing power, and services ecosystem, Apple remains in a relatively stronger position. Goldman Sachs forecasts F2Q26 EPS of $2.00, above the consensus estimate of $1.93, and revenue of $110.3bn, above the consensus estimate of $108.9bn.

Core views

The core view is that AAPL is likely to deliver both revenue and EPS upside in F2Q26, mainly driven by strong iPhone and Mac product revenue, better-than-expected gross margins, forex tailwinds, and steady Services growth. The report also believes F3Q26 guidance will continue to reflect resilient demand for the iPhone 17 lineup and momentum in Services, and views WWDC, AI Siri, iPhone 18 Pro/Pro Max, a foldable iPhone, and new AI smart home devices as subsequent catalysts.

Analysis framework

The report uses a combination of top-down and bottom-up approaches, integrating company guidance, FactSet and Visible Alpha consensus estimates, third-party shipment data from IDC/Omdia/Counterpoint, App Store spending tracking, Sensor Tower data, product launch cadence, and forex factors. It then separately breaks down assumptions for iPhone, Mac, iPad, Services, App Store, TAC, and gross margin, before aggregating them into quarterly revenue, EPS, and valuation conclusions.

Methodology notes

• earnings_previewconsensus_vs_gse_bridge

  Comparison between Goldman Sachs forecasts and consensus expectations

  The report compares Goldman Sachs estimates, FactSet or Visible Alpha consensus estimates, and company guidance item by item to assess whether there is upside potential in F2Q26 revenue, EPS, product revenue, and gross margin.

• segment_modelproduct_and_services_decomposition

  Product and services segment breakdown

  The report models iPhone, Mac, iPad, Services, App Store, and TAC separately, using variables such as shipment volume, ASP, market share, service subscriptions, and advertising/search traffic to explain revenue growth.

• market_checkthird_party_shipment_and_spending_data

  Cross-validation with third-party industry data

  The report cites data from IDC, Omdia, Counterpoint, Sensor Tower, and others to validate iPhone, Mac, and iPad shipments, App Store spending trends, and the resilience of Google Chrome usage on iOS.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• AAPL.US

  Research coverage target; BUY rating; target price $330.00

  Strengths

  Strong demand for the iPhone 17 lineup, higher ASP, the Mac refresh cycle, high-teens growth in Services revenue, gross margin above consensus expectations, forex tailwinds, and strong supply chain access capabilities.

  Weaknesses

  App Store growth is below historical levels, commission rate adjustments in certain regions are putting pressure on revenue growth, and DRAM and component cost inflation remain market concerns.

  Comparison

  The report expects AAPL F2Q26 EPS and revenue to both exceed FactSet consensus estimates; AAPL is down 4% year to date, underperforming the S&P 500's +2%, but Goldman Sachs believes concerns are overly pessimistic.

  Risks

  Weaker smartphone demand, demand destruction caused by price increases, component shortages, App Store commission compression, changes in search TAC, and slower-than-expected progress in AI and new products.

• iPhone segment

  Core revenue driver for AAPL

  Strengths

  F2Q26 revenue is forecast at $56.6bn, up 21% year over year; growth is supported by iPhone 17 demand, higher ASP, market share gains in China, and memory supply constraints affecting competitors.

  Weaknesses

  Growth depends on the mix of premium models, replacement cycles, carrier subsidies, and supply chain stability.

  Comparison

  Goldman Sachs forecasts iPhone revenue growth of 21%, above the consensus estimate of 19%; iPhone shipments in China grew 33% in C1Q26, while the overall China smartphone market declined 3%.

  Risks

  DRAM shortages, changes in competitor pricing, weaker consumer willingness to upgrade, and less-than-expected premiumization.

• Services segment

  Source of AAPL profit and valuation resilience

  Strengths

  F2Q26 revenue is forecast at $30.4bn, up 14% year over year, supported by iCloud+, AppleCare+, subscriptions, TAC, Apple TV+ price increases, and advertising performance.

  Weaknesses

  App Store growth is slowing, and commission rate adjustments are creating pressure in China and Japan.

  Comparison

  Services overall is expected to maintain teens growth, but App Store revenue is forecast to grow only 7%, below the overall Services growth rate.

  Risks

  Continued compression of App Store commission rates, expansion of off-app payment options, iOS security risks, and changes in the search TAC structure.

Key data

• 12-month target price$330.00Disclosed on the report cover page; current price is $270.23, implying 22.1% upside.
• F2Q26 EPS forecast$2.00Above the FactSet consensus estimate of $1.93.
• F2Q26 revenue forecast$110.3bnAbove the consensus estimate of $108.9bn, up 16% year over year, at the high end of the company's 13%-16% revenue growth guidance.
• F2Q26 iPhone revenue forecast$56.6bn，+21% yoyAbove the consensus estimate of $55.6bn, mainly driven by 3% shipment growth and 17% ASP growth.
• F2Q26 Mac revenue forecast$8.9bn，+12% yoyAbove the FactSet consensus estimate of 4% year-over-year growth.
• F2Q26 iPad revenue forecast$6.8bn，+6% yoySlightly above the FactSet consensus estimate of +5% year over year, supported by device refreshes and premiumization.
• F2Q26 Services revenue forecast$30.4bn，+14% yoyBroadly in line with consensus and company guidance, supported by iCloud+, AppleCare+, subscriptions, and TAC.
• F2Q26 gross margin forecast49.0%Above the consensus estimate of 48.3%, at the high end of the company's 48%-49% guidance.
• Market capitalization$4.0trDisclosed in the report's Key Data.

Impact & implications

The report carries positive implications for AAPL: if F2Q26 confirms Goldman Sachs' forecasts, investor concerns over DRAM price increases, gross margins, and demand may ease, and the market may focus more on Apple's ability to sustain its valuation premium through supply chain capabilities, product premiumization, Services growth, and new product cycles. In the short term, upside earnings and F3Q26 guidance are key; in the medium term, AI Siri, a foldable iPhone, the iPhone 18 series, new MacBook products, and advertising inventory expansion may support revenue and valuation.

Risks

• A sharp rise in DRAM prices could compress smartphone gross margins or push up end-product prices.
• Component shortages could constrain supply of iPhone, Mac, or other hardware.
• Price-driven demand destruction could weaken replacement cycles and demand for premium models.
• App Store commission rate adjustments in China and Japan could weigh on revenue growth; the report estimates the related changes create an approximately 4.6 percentage point full-quarter year-over-year headwind to App Store revenue.
• The expansion of off-app payment options could weaken App Store commission revenue.
• AI applications and vibe coding apps could create iOS security and App Store ecosystem risks.
• Changes in Google search usage habits could affect Apple's TAC revenue.
• If AI Siri, a foldable iPhone, the iPhone 18 series, and new AI smart home devices are delayed or poorly received, subsequent catalysts could weaken.

What to watch

• Whether actual F2Q26 EPS reaches or exceeds Goldman Sachs' $2.00 forecast and the consensus estimate of $1.93.
• Whether F2Q26 revenue approaches $110.3bn and lands at the high end of the company's 13%-16% year-over-year growth guidance.
• Whether iPhone revenue, unit shipments, and ASP can validate the assumptions of $56.6bn, +21% year over year, and +17% ASP growth.
• Whether gross margin approaches 49.0%, and whether product mix, forex, and in-house component production can offset cost inflation.
• Whether F3Q26 revenue guidance reaches the 8%-10% year-over-year growth range.
• Whether WWDC provides more details on the fall launch of AI Siri.
• The product timing for the iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, foldable iPhone, touchscreen high-end MacBook, and AI smart home devices in the fall.
• App Store spending trends in the United States, China, and Japan, and the impact of commission rate adjustments.
• MAU and usage time trends for Google Chrome on iOS, to assess the resilience of TAC revenue.