Akeso's core products continue to ramp up; Deutsche Bank assigns a Buy rating and a HKD 162 target price

Overview

This is a company research and rating-change report on Akeso Biologics (9926.HK / Akeso). The report focuses on FY25 performance, the ramp-up of core products AK104 and AK112, the price and volume impact after NRDL inclusion, and the potential commercialization timelines for Gumokimab and AK120 in 2026 to 2027.

Core views

The core view is that near-term performance remains pressured by price cuts and rising sales and R&D spending, with both FY25 operating loss and net loss widening significantly; however, NRDL inclusion for AK104 and AK112, indication expansion, and overseas clinical progress, together with expectations for future approvals of the two new products, still provide support for revenue growth and valuation.

Analysis framework

The report mainly evaluates the company's fundamentals and 12-month share-price potential through performance breakdowns, product sales trends, gross margin changes, expense growth, widening losses, NRDL inclusion, NMPA/FDA approval progress, and overseas clinical/BLA milestones.

Methodology notes

• Fundamental analysisPerformance and pipeline catalyst framework

  A framework that assesses biotech growth quality by combining revenue, gross margin, expenses, losses, NRDL inclusion, indication expansion, and registration/approval milestones.

  This framework is suitable for innovative drug companies that are still in a high-investment and loss-making stage; it focuses not only on current profitability, but also on core product ramp-up, NRDL coverage, clinical progress, and the contribution of future commercialized products to medium- and long-term revenue.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• 9926.HK

  Research coverage target

  Strengths

  AK104 and AK112 continue to ramp up, multiple indications are included in the NRDL or are in registration review; Gumokimab and AK120 are expected to advance toward approval and commercialization in 2026 to 2027.

  Weaknesses

  FY25 revenue was below Deutsche Bank's estimate, reimbursement price cuts compressed gross margin, administrative, marketing and R&D expenses continued to rise, and losses widened.

  Comparison

  The report disclosed that Buy ratings account for 81% of Deutsche Bank's Asia-covered stocks; Akeso is rated Buy in this report with a HKD 162.00 target price.

  Risks

  NRDL price cuts, approval delays, overseas clinical progress falling short of expectations, higher-than-expected spending, widening losses, and share-price volatility.

Key data

• Current priceHKD 139.20As of April 1, 2026.
• 12-month target priceHKD 162.00Deutsche Bank target price.
• Implied upsideAbout 16.4%Calculated from the HKD 162.00 target price and the HKD 139.20 current price.
• 52-week rangeHKD 64.75-176.90Range disclosed in the report chart.
• FY25 revenueRmb3,056mnUp 43.9% YoY, 7% below Deutsche Bank's estimate.
• FY25 product salesUp 49.6% YoYMainly driven by ramp-up of AK104 and AK112.
• FY25 gross margin (excluding licensing revenue)77.8%Down 6 percentage points YoY, mainly due to price reductions after AK104 and AK112 were included in the NRDL.
• FY25 operating lossRmb991mnUp 46.7% YoY.
• FY25 net lossRmb1,113mnUp 116.3% YoY.
• AK104 reimbursement progressAdded two NRDL indicationsIncluding 1L gastric / gastroesophageal junction adenocarcinoma and 1L cervical cancer.
• AK112 indication progress1L PD-L1-positive NSCLC has been approved and included in the NRDLThe sNDA for 1L squamous NSCLC is under NMPA review.

Impact & implications

For investment implications, the report's positive logic comes from broader reimbursement coverage, continued ramp-up of core products, and pipeline commercialization progress; negative constraints come from gross margin pressure due to reimbursement price cuts, sharp increases in sales and R&D expenses, and widening losses. If the timing of AK104 and AK112 indication expansion and the approvals of Gumokimab and AK120 meets expectations, revenue growth and valuation may be supported; if price pressure or spending exceeds expectations, the profitability inflection point may be delayed.

Risks

• FY25 revenue was 7% below Deutsche Bank's estimate, indicating uncertainty in commercialization delivery.
• NRDL inclusion for AK104 and AK112 creates a ramp-up opportunity, but price reductions have already caused gross margin decline.
• Administrative, marketing and R&D expense growth remains high and may continue to weigh on profitability improvement.
• Gumokimab, AK120 and AK112-related indications still depend on NMPA or FDA approval and review progress.
• Overseas clinical trials and BLA progress face regulatory, enrollment, and clinical-result uncertainty.

What to watch

• Sales ramp-up and pricing impact after AK104's new NRDL indications.
• NMPA review progress for 1L sq-NSCLC under AK112 and feedback on overseas BLA filings.
• Approval and commercialization preparations for Gumokimab in 2026.
• Approval timing for AK120 around 2027.
• Gross margin, marketing expense ratio, R&D expense ratio, and the narrowing of net losses.