Novo Nordisk forecasts and target price raised, but 2026 sales may only be flat and 2027 growth remains limited

Overview

The report reassesses Novo Nordisk's product, regional, and earnings forecasts following the release of its second-quarter 2026 results. J.P. Morgan believes milder near-term generic erosion, US net revenue adjustments, and stronger growth outside the US have improved the 2026 base, but that a subsequent decline in Ozempic will constrain overall growth in 2027. It therefore raises its forecasts and target price while maintaining a Neutral rating.

Core views

Following the second-quarter results, J.P. Morgan raised its 2026 sales forecast for Novo Nordisk by 5%, its 2027—2030 forecasts by 6%—7%, and its 2026—2030 adjusted earnings-per-share forecasts by 4%—8%. Of the increase in the 2027—2030 sales forecasts, approximately 5 percentage points come from the higher 2026 base, while an additional 1—2 percentage points primarily reflect stronger Oral Wegovy growth outside the US. Despite the broad forecast upgrades, the firm's core view remains that growth will be limited: revenue is expected to be broadly flat at constant exchange rates in 2026, grow by only approximately 1% in 2027, and increase by approximately 2% in 2028. The improvement in 2026 is primarily driven by Ozempic, injectable Wegovy, and insulin. The full-year Ozempic forecast was raised by 8% to DKr113bn, reflecting slower-than-expected generic erosion in international markets, a smaller expected price reduction in Canada due to delays to generics from Dr. Reddy's and Aspen Pharmacare, and a favorable second-quarter gross-to-net adjustment in the US. The Wegovy forecast was raised by 7% to DKr82bn, mainly reflecting better-than-expected growth outside the US; the insulin forecast was also increased by 5%. These factors may enable the company to reach the upper end of its 2026 guidance range. Oral Wegovy is the main negative adjustment to the 2026 forecast. Slowing US prescription growth and weakening launch momentum prompted the firm to cut its full-year forecast by 11% to DKr18bn. Initial launch performance in international markets has been strong but can only partially offset the slowdown in the US; the report forecasts approximately DKr4bn of international sales in 2026. Across all products, adjusted sales at constant exchange rates are expected to be flat versus 2025 in 2026. Including an approximately -1% foreign-exchange headwind, sales are forecast at DKr305bn, 6% above the pre-second-quarter company consensus of DKr288bn and 2% above the Bloomberg consensus of DKr298bn. The financial table shows revenue of DKr305.018bn, down 1.3% year on year, and adjusted earnings per share of DKr23.26, up 0.9% year on year. The 2027 sales forecast was raised by 6% to approximately DKr307bn, but this is mainly attributable to the higher 2026 base; constant-exchange-rate year-on-year growth was increased only from flat previously to approximately 1%. Incremental revenue is expected to come primarily from three sources: Oral Wegovy is forecast to increase to DKr34bn, adding DKr16bn, of which DKr13bn comes from markets outside the US and only DKr3bn from the US; the rollout of the hemophilia A product Mim8 is expected to contribute DKr2bn of incremental sales; and the launch of CagriSema in the US obesity market is expected to generate DKr5bn in sales. Most of the approximately DKr23bn combined incremental contribution from these three products will be offset by declines in existing products. The offsetting factors are concentrated in Ozempic and related oral products. The report expects Ozempic to decline by approximately 28% year on year due to continued volume losses and US IRA price reductions, reducing sales by approximately DKr19bn; Ozempic pill/Rybelsus will reduce sales by a further approximately DKr2bn. Consequently, 2027 sales are forecast at approximately DKr307bn, 4% above the pre-second-quarter company consensus of DKr295bn and 1% above the Bloomberg consensus of DKr304bn, but still representing year-on-year growth of only approximately 1%. The financial table forecasts 2027 revenue of DKr307.240bn and adjusted earnings per share of DKr23.01, representing year-on-year growth of 0.7% and a decline of 1.0%, respectively; adjusted EBITDA falls from DKr161.043bn in 2026 to DKr143.627bn, while the margin declines from 52.8% to 46.7%. Revenue is expected to reach DKr312.572bn in 2028, up 1.7% year on year and approximately equivalent to the 2% growth cited in the report; adjusted earnings per share are expected to recover by 2.5% to DKr23.60. Longer-term growth acceleration depends to a significant extent on the successful development of zenagamtide, particularly its oral formulation. The report believes the product could deliver the greatest weight-loss efficacy among oral weight-loss drugs, but investors may not see its Phase III results until 2028 at the earliest, leaving this growth pillar subject to a lengthy wait and R&D uncertainty. On valuation, J.P. Morgan raised its December 2027 target price from DKr250 to DKr275, continuing to apply 12 times expected adjusted 2027 earnings per share. This valuation represents an approximately 20% discount to the industry; the report considers the discount justified because Novo Nordisk's expected 2027—2030 earnings-per-share CAGR of 4% is below the 6% rate for the European large-cap pharmaceutical industry. The 2026 adjusted earnings-per-share forecast was raised from DKr22.37 to DKr23.26, an increase of 4.0%; the 2027 forecast was increased from DKr21.48 to DKr23.01, an increase of 7.1%. The forecast and target-price upgrades do not change the firm's view of low growth over the next several years, and it therefore maintains its Neutral rating. Upcoming events include the London Capital Markets Day on September 21, 2026, when the company is expected to provide updates on the 1mg and 1.7mg dose data from CagriSema's REDEFINE 9 study, zenagamtide, the Amylin monotherapy program, monthly GLP-1 dosing, and its overall strategy; detailed Phase III HIBISCUS data for etavopivat are expected in the second half of 2026 and may be presented at the ASH meeting on December 12—15, 2026; and Phase III SYNCHRONY results for efruxifermin in MASH are expected in the fourth quarter of 2026. Key forecast risks include faster-than-expected uptake of Mounjaro or Zepbound and weaker-than-expected growth in the GLP-1 diabetes or obesity markets; upside opportunities include better-than-expected growth for Oral Wegovy or CagriSema.

Analysis framework

The firm first adjusted regional sales forecasts for Ozempic, injectable Wegovy, Oral Wegovy, and insulin on a product-by-product basis following the second-quarter results, then separated constant-exchange-rate growth from foreign-exchange effects to establish the 2026 sales base. It subsequently constructed a 2027 revenue bridge using product-level increases and decreases to assess whether incremental sales from Oral Wegovy, Mim8, and CagriSema could offset declines in Ozempic and Rybelsus, and compared the results with company consensus and Bloomberg consensus. Finally, it translated the sales changes into earnings-per-share forecasts, determined the target price using expected adjusted 2027 earnings per share and an industry discount, and evaluated the growth trajectory in conjunction with R&D and product-related events.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodologyPE/PEG valuation

  Price-to-earnings valuation based on expected adjusted 2027 earnings per share

  The report calculates the DKr275 target price using 12 times expected adjusted 2027 earnings per share and explains the approximately 20% discount to the industry through the difference between Novo Nordisk's and the European large-cap pharmaceutical industry's 2027—2030 earnings-per-share CAGRs.

• Industry/Sector Analysis FrameworkVolume-price decomposition

  Decomposing sales changes by product, region, volume, and pricing factors

  The report separately analyzes generic erosion, US IRA price reductions, prescription and volume changes, gross-to-net adjustments, and regional launch contributions to explain the upward or downward revisions to the Ozempic, Wegovy, and Oral Wegovy forecasts.

• Event-Driven Strategy and Behavioral FinanceExpectation Gap/Expectation Management

  Comparison with company consensus and Bloomberg consensus

  The firm compares its 2026 and 2027 sales forecasts with the pre-second-quarter company consensus and Bloomberg consensus to illustrate the expectation gap following the forecast upgrades, while emphasizing that year-on-year growth remains limited.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Novo Nordisk (NOVOb.CO, NOVOB DC)

  The report's core covered company; near-term forecasts are supported by slower generic erosion for Ozempic, international Wegovy growth, and new product launches, but medium-term growth is constrained by the decline in Ozempic.

  Strengths

  Near-term forecasts for Ozempic and Wegovy have been raised, Oral Wegovy is showing signs of a strong launch in international markets, and Mim8, CagriSema, and zenagamtide provide sources of future growth.

  Weaknesses

  US Oral Wegovy prescription growth is slowing, Ozempic is expected to decline by approximately 28% in 2027 due to volume losses and IRA price reductions, and overall revenue growth is limited.

  Comparison

  The 2026 and 2027 sales forecasts are 6% and 4% above the pre-second-quarter company consensus, respectively, and 2% and 1% above Bloomberg consensus; the 2027—2030 earnings-per-share CAGR of 4% is below the 6% rate for the European large-cap pharmaceutical industry.

  Risks

  Competition from Mounjaro and Zepbound, slowing GLP-1 market growth, performance of Oral Wegovy and CagriSema deviating from expectations, and uncertainty surrounding zenagamtide's R&D results.

Key data

• 2026 sales forecast adjustment+5%Raised following the second-quarter results
• 2027—2030 sales forecast adjustment+6%—7%Approximately 5 percentage points come from the higher 2026 base, with an additional 1—2 percentage points from Oral Wegovy growth outside the US
• 2026—2030 adjusted earnings-per-share forecast adjustment+4%—8%Driven by higher product sales forecasts
• 2026 salesDKr305bnFlat versus 2025 at constant exchange rates, with an approximately -1% foreign-exchange headwind; 6% above company consensus and 2% above Bloomberg consensus
• 2026 Ozempic sales forecastDKr113bnRaised by 8%
• 2026 Wegovy sales forecastDKr82bnRaised by 7%, mainly driven by growth outside the US
• 2026 Oral Wegovy sales forecastDKr18bnCut by 11%; international markets are expected to contribute DKr4bn
• 2026 insulin forecast adjustment+5%The firm raised its full-year forecast
• 2027 sales forecastDKr307bnRaised by 6%, with constant-exchange-rate year-on-year growth of approximately 1%; 4% above company consensus and 1% above Bloomberg consensus
• 2027 Oral Wegovy sales forecastDKr34bnAn increase of DKr16bn, with DKr13bn contributed by markets outside the US and DKr3bn by the US
• 2027 Mim8 incremental salesDKr2bnFrom the rollout of the hemophilia A product
• 2027 CagriSema sales forecastDKr5bnBased on its launch in the US obesity market
• 2027 Ozempic changeapproximately -DKr19bnExpected to decline by approximately 28% year on year due to volume losses and US IRA price reductions
• 2027 Ozempic pill/Rybelsus changeapproximately -DKr2bnFurther offsets incremental sales from new products
• 2026 adjusted earnings per shareDKr23.26Previously DKr22.37, raised by 4.0%
• 2027 adjusted earnings per shareDKr23.01Previously DKr21.48, raised by 7.1%
• 2028 revenue and adjusted earnings per shareDKr312.572bn; DKr23.60Revenue up 1.7% year on year and adjusted earnings per share up 2.5% year on year
• Target price and valuationDKr275; 12x 2027E adjusted earnings per sharePrevious target price DKr250; approximately 20% discount to the industry
• 2027—2030 earnings-per-share CAGRNovo Nordisk 4%; European large-cap pharmaceutical industry 6%The report uses this to explain the valuation discount

Impact & implications

The forecast upgrades mainly improve Novo Nordisk's 2026 base and nominal target price but do not alter its medium-term low-growth profile. Oral Wegovy, Mim8, and CagriSema are expected to contribute approximately DKr23bn in incremental sales in 2027, but declines in Ozempic and Rybelsus will offset most of this contribution; whether growth can accelerate meaningfully after 2028 will depend on pipeline delivery from assets such as zenagamtide. The firm therefore believes the company's valuation discount to the industry remains justified.

Risks

• Faster-than-expected uptake of Mounjaro could create downside risk to Ozempic diabetes sales forecasts.
• Faster-than-expected uptake of Zepbound could create downside risk to Wegovy obesity business forecasts.
• Weaker-than-expected growth in the GLP-1 diabetes and obesity markets would pressure overall forecasts.
• Better-than-expected growth in Oral Wegovy could create upside to forecasts.
• Better-than-expected growth in CagriSema could create upside to forecasts.

What to watch

• Monitor updates at the September 21, 2026 Capital Markets Day on the 1mg and 1.7mg doses in the CagriSema REDEFINE 9 study, zenagamtide, the Amylin monotherapy program, monthly GLP-1 dosing, and the company's strategy.
• Monitor detailed Phase III HIBISCUS data for etavopivat, which the report expects to be disclosed in the second half of 2026 and potentially presented at the ASH meeting on December 12—15, 2026.
• Monitor the Phase III SYNCHRONY MASH results for efruxifermin, expected in the fourth quarter of 2026.
• Monitor the Phase III results for zenagamtide, which may be released in 2028 at the earliest and are an important condition for sales growth to accelerate after 2028.