Global capital keeps flowing in, while energy funds shift from strength to modest outflows

Overview

This is Goldman Sachs' weekly global fund flow report, centered on the theme of "going with the energy flow." The report covers one week through May 13, 2026, across global equities, fixed income, money markets, sector funds, regional funds, and cross-border FX flows. Overall, both global equity and fixed income funds recorded net inflows, leaving risk sentiment supported; however, the flow mix was clearly differentiated, with developed market equities and fixed income remaining strong, emerging market equities especially mainland China under pressure, and energy funds shifting from strong prior inflows to a modest outflow.

Core views

The report's core judgment is: first, global equity flows were led by developed markets, with strong demand for the US and Japan, while global emerging market benchmark funds, mainland China, and Korea equity funds saw net outflows; second, fixed income fund demand remained solid, especially in aggregate, government bond, short-duration, and inflation-protected bond funds; third, energy fund flows have a strong co-movement with the S&P GSCI, but in the latest week they moved from prior highs into a small outflow; fourth, at the sector level, technology and infrastructure funds drew the largest inflows, while consumer goods funds saw the largest outflows; fifth, cross-border FX flows were overall positive, with G10 and the US dollar standing out most.

Analysis framework

The report mainly uses a fund flow monitoring framework that combines weekly net inflows, four-week cumulative inflows, four-week average flows as a percentage of AUM, single-week flows as a percentage of AUM, and four-week cumulative z-scores, then breaks the data down by asset class, region, sector, currency, and investor source. The charts also use four-week moving averages and one-year moving averages to identify short-term turning points and medium-term trends.

Methodology notes

• fund_flow_analysisWeekly and four-week cumulative fund flow analysis

  Use weekly net inflows and four-week cumulative net inflows to measure flow momentum.

  Weekly data captures the latest marginal change, while four-week cumulative data smooths short-term noise and helps identify sustained inflow or outflow trends in equity, bond, money market, and sector funds.

• relative_flow_analysisFlow-to-AUM ratio and z-score normalization

  Compare flow pressure or crowding across assets of different sizes by using flows as a percentage of AUM and z-scores.

  The AUM ratio avoids the distortion from fund size alone, while z-scores help identify whether flows materially deviate from historical norms, such as the notably negative four-week cumulative z-score in emerging market equities.

• cross_asset_mappingObserving the linkage between energy fund flows and commodity indices

  Compare four-week moving-average flows in energy funds with the S&P GSCI trend.

  The chart shows that energy fund flows strengthened materially in early 2026 as commodity prices rose, then quickly faded even as the S&P GSCI remained elevated, suggesting that flows are sensitive to commodity price trends but may also reverse in phases.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Energy funds

  Broadly moves in line with the S&P GSCI; earlier gains were driven by rising commodity prices, but the latest week turned to outflows.

  Strengths

  Saw significant inflows in early 2026, and the four-week cumulative figure remains positive.

  Weaknesses

  Weekly outflow of about $510 million indicates that short-term momentum has faded.

  Comparison

  Compared with technology and infrastructure funds, the latest weekly energy flow is weaker; compared with consumer goods funds, its four-week cumulative performance is still better.

  Risks

  A pullback in commodity prices, reversal of crowded trades, and continued outflows from energy-themed funds.

• Global fixed income funds

  One of the strongest inflow asset classes this week.

  Strengths

  Weekly net inflow of about $28.550 billion and four-week cumulative inflow of about $92.008 billion; government bond, aggregate bond, and short-duration bond demand remained healthy.

  Weaknesses

  Long-duration bond funds lagged, showing that duration appetite remains constrained.

  Comparison

  The inflow scale exceeded that of global equity funds for the week.

  Risks

  Inflation upside, interest rate volatility, and duration risk could alter bond flow preferences.

• US equity funds

  The main contributor to developed market equity inflows.

  Strengths

  Weekly inflow of about $21.897 billion and four-week cumulative inflow of about $68.543 billion.

  Weaknesses

  While foreign inflows remained positive overall, they were volatile across some source regions.

  Comparison

  US equity funds were clearly stronger than emerging market equities on the flow side.

  Risks

  Valuation, USD volatility, macro data, and changes in risk appetite.

• Mainland China equity funds

  The main drag on emerging market equity outflows.

  Strengths

  Some foreign capital flow indicators showed mild signs of recovery in 2026.

  Weaknesses

  Four-week cumulative outflow of about $52.113 billion and weekly outflow of about $22.191 billion indicate significant pressure.

  Comparison

  Among regional equity funds, mainland China's year-to-date and recent flow performance was clearly weaker than Korea, Brazil, and developed markets.

  Risks

  Domestic redemptions, lower foreign risk appetite, and volatility in policy and growth expectations.

• Technology and infrastructure funds

  The main net inflow areas at the sector level.

  Strengths

  Technology funds saw about $6.524 billion of inflows for the week; infrastructure funds posted about $6.465 billion of four-week cumulative inflows and a high z-score.

  Weaknesses

  Technology flows can be volatile, and infrastructure strength may become crowded in phases.

  Comparison

  Significantly stronger than outflow sectors such as consumer goods, healthcare, and utilities.

  Risks

  Theme crowding, earnings expectation revisions, and interest rate changes.

• USD and G10 FX flows

  The main concentration area for cross-border FX inflows.

  Strengths

  FX four-week cumulative inflows of about $70.136 billion, G10 about $56.072 billion, and USD about $34.258 billion.

  Weaknesses

  Flows in some Asian currencies and emerging market currencies were weaker or more volatile.

  Comparison

  G10 inflows were stronger than those for Asia, the Americas, EMEA, and frontier market groups.

  Risks

  Crowded USD positioning, changes in rate differentials, and a reversal in safe-haven sentiment.

Key data

• Weekly net inflow into global equity funds+$20.458bnAs of May 13; about +$2bn in the prior week.
• Four-week cumulative net inflow into global equity funds+$71.958bnFour-week cumulative data for total equity funds; four-week average about 0.06% of AUM.
• Weekly net inflow into global fixed income funds+$28.550bnFixed income was one of the largest inflow asset classes for the week; four-week cumulative about +$92.008bn.
• Asset change in money market funds+$5.756bnMoney market fund assets increased for the week, with four-week cumulative about +$92.502bn.
• Four-week cumulative outflow from emerging market equity funds-$53.511bnWeekly outflow of about -$25.380bn; four-week cumulative z-score about -3.12.
• Four-week cumulative outflow from mainland China equity funds-$52.113bnWeekly outflow of about -$22.191bn; single-week flow about -2.94% of AUM.
• Weekly flow in energy sector funds-$0.510bnEnergy funds saw about +$4bn the week before, but the latest week turned to outflows; four-week cumulative about +$4.652bn.
• Weekly inflow into technology sector funds+$6.524bnFour-week cumulative about +$7.429bn, one of the larger sector-level net inflow sources.
• Four-week cumulative inflow into infrastructure funds+$6.465bnFour-week cumulative z-score of about 4.35, indicating strong relative performance versus history.
• Weekly inflow into cross-border FX flows+$25.746bnFour-week cumulative about +$70.136bn; G10 four-week cumulative about +$56.072bn.
• Four-week cumulative FX inflow into USD+$34.258bnThe largest four-week cumulative inflow among major currencies.

Impact & implications

In terms of investment implications, flows still support developed market equities, fixed income, and some G10 FX assets, but risk is not distributed evenly. The short-term outflow from energy funds suggests that prior commodity and energy-theme trades may be seeing profit-taking or momentum cooling; persistent outflows from emerging market equities, especially mainland China equity funds, indicate that regional flow pressure has not yet eased. Continued fixed income inflows, along with strong demand for short-duration and inflation-protected bonds, suggest that investors are still allocating defensively against inflation and duration risk even as risk assets continue to receive inflows.

Risks

• This report is a fund flow and thematic research note, and does not constitute independent investment advice for any individual stock or single security.
• Fund flows may be affected by short-term rebalancing, redemptions, holidays, and sample coverage, and do not necessarily equal fundamental changes.
• The co-movement between energy fund flows and the S&P GSCI is based on chart observation; the dual-axis chart should not be interpreted as implying equal magnitude changes or causality.
• If outflows from emerging market and mainland China equity funds persist, they may weigh on regional risk sentiment.
• Fixed income inflows are influenced by interest rates, inflation, and duration risk, and if macro expectations change, flows could reverse quickly.

What to watch

• Whether energy funds continue to see outflows or move back into strength alongside the S&P GSCI.
• Whether redemption pressure in mainland China equity funds and global EM benchmark funds eases.
• Whether the divergence among short-duration, long-duration, and inflation-protected bond funds widens.
• Whether inflows into technology, infrastructure, and industrial funds remain sustained or fade from elevated levels.
• Whether cross-border FX inflows into G10, the USD, and major emerging market currencies continue to stay positive.
• Whether the recent pullback in foreign inflows into Korea, Brazil, Japan, and Europe is merely noise or a trend reversal.