Goldman Sachs bullish on the launch potential of Johnson & Johnson’s psoriasis drug Icotyde

Overview

This report focuses on the early launch performance and long-term positioning of Johnson & Johnson’s oral psoriasis drug Icotyde. Goldman Sachs believes the number of prescribers grew rapidly after Icotyde was approved by the FDA in March 2026 for moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis. At its April 1Q26 earnings call, the company disclosed that 1,500 patients had been prescribed Icotyde by more than 1,000 unique prescribers; at a healthcare conference on June 9, it further disclosed that the number of prescribers had increased to approximately 4,500.

Core views

The core view is that Icotyde could expand the advanced systemic psoriasis treatment market rather than significantly cannibalize injectable IL-23 therapies such as Tremfya and Skyrizi. The KOL survey indicates that Icotyde is better suited for patients initiating branded systemic therapy for the first time or switching from other branded oral drugs. If it reaches the 15%-20% market share suggested by the survey, peak sales could support more than $10bn, above Goldman Sachs’ $7.7bn forecast and Visible Alpha’s $7.1bn consensus estimate.

Analysis framework

Goldman Sachs used a proprietary KOL survey cross-validated against company disclosures, interviewing 26 dermatologists who had each treated at least 100 patients with moderate-to-severe psoriasis and prescribed multiple branded systemic therapies over the past year. The report also incorporates JNJ management’s comments on Icotyde’s early prescriptions, patient mix, and channel coverage, as well as positioning analysis relative to competitors including Tremfya, Skyrizi, Otezla, and Sotyktu.

Methodology notes

• KOL surveyDermatologist prescribing-intent survey

  Assesses Icotyde’s current and future penetration, patient sources, switching preferences, payer access, and prescribing drivers through a physician sample.

  The sample included 26 dermatologists, each of whom had treated at least 100 patients with moderate-to-severe psoriasis and prescribed multiple branded systemic therapies during the past year.

• Valuation methodsP/E valuation method

  Derives the 12-month price target by applying a target P/E multiple to forward quarterly EPS.

  Goldman Sachs applied a 20x P/E multiple to Q5-Q8 EPS to derive a 12-month price target of $275.

• Competitive positioningTreatment pathway and switching-source analysis

  Compares the prescribing positions of oral therapies, injectable IL-23 therapies, and injectable IL-17 therapies among new and existing patients.

  The report believes Icotyde will primarily benefit from patients initiating branded systemic therapy and existing patients using branded oral drugs, rather than broadly replacing patients who are stable on injectable IL-23 or IL-17 therapies.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.N)

  The covered company; Icotyde is viewed as a key new product cycle for the immunology business.

  Strengths

  Buy rating; favorable physician acceptance of Icotyde; differentiated oral administration; potential for upward revisions to peak sales.

  Weaknesses

  Only 2.9% upside from the current price to the price target; the new product remains in the early launch phase, and product-level sales have not yet been disclosed separately.

  Comparison

  Compared with branded oral drugs such as Otezla and Sotyktu, Icotyde is considered more efficacious; compared with injectable IL-23 therapies such as Tremfya and Skyrizi, Icotyde differentiates itself through oral convenience, although injectables remain the preferred choice for approximately half of new patients.

  Risks

  Slower-than-expected new-product ramp-up, uncertainty surrounding Talc litigation, and a more challenging macroeconomic and tariff environment.

• Icotyde

  JNJ’s recently launched oral psoriasis drug and the core product covered in the report.

  Strengths

  Physicians expect penetration to rise from approximately 2%-3% currently to 15%-20% after five years; the fasting requirement has not been a significant barrier; the drug could expand into indications such as PsA, UC, and CD.

  Weaknesses

  The launch is still in its early stages, and payer access remains a factor in prescriptions still in process; although efficacy is higher than that of existing oral drugs, it remains below that of injectable IL-23 therapies.

  Comparison

  Primary sources of competition or substitution include oral therapies such as Otezla and Sotyktu; the relationship with injectable IL-23 therapies such as Tremfya and Skyrizi is more one of market expansion than direct substitution.

  Risks

  If insurance coverage, physician education, or real-world efficacy falls short of expectations, penetration and peak sales could be below Goldman Sachs’ assumptions.

Key data

• 12-month price target$275.00Based on a 20x P/E multiple and Goldman Sachs’ Q5-Q8 EPS.
• Current price$267.24Price disclosed in the report.
• Implied upside2.9%Calculated from the price target relative to the current price.
• Survey sample26 dermatologistsEach physician had treated at least 100 patients with moderate-to-severe psoriasis and used multiple branded systemic therapies during the past year.
• Icotyde current penetrationAverage 3% / median 2%The proportion of eligible patients currently prescribed Icotyde by physicians.
• Icotyde expected penetration after 1 yearAverage 10% / median 8%Physicians’ expected prescribing penetration after one year.
• Icotyde expected penetration after 5 yearsAverage 19% / median 15%The 75th percentile indicates penetration could reach 29% after five years, suggesting that some physicians expect higher usage.
• Potential peak sales$10bn+If Icotyde reaches the 15%-20% market share implied by the KOL survey, sales could exceed GSe of $7.7bn and Visible Alpha consensus of $7.1bn.
• 2026E revenue$101,136.5mnGoldman Sachs forecast.
• 2027E revenue$110,064.0mnGoldman Sachs forecast.
• 2026E EPS$11.60Goldman Sachs forecast.
• 2027E EPS$13.38Goldman Sachs forecast.

Impact & implications

The report’s impact on JNJ is moderately positive: if Icotyde ramps up as expected by KOLs, it would strengthen the company’s immunology portfolio, help offset declines in mature products, and support management’s goal of double-digit revenue growth by the end of this decade. Since currently available script data may not fully cover all channels, updated metrics from the 2Q26 earnings call will be an important catalyst for validating early launch momentum.

Risks

• The new product’s launch pace could be slower than Goldman Sachs expects, making it insufficient to offset revenue declines from declining products.
• Uncertainty related to Talc litigation could result in higher-than-expected settlements and suppress valuation multiples.
• A more challenging macroeconomic and tariff-related external environment could create downside pressure on earnings forecasts.
• Icotyde remains in the early launch phase, and insurance coverage and payer access will need to continue improving as experience accumulates.
• If injectable IL-23 or IL-17 therapies retain strong physician preference, Icotyde penetration among new patients could fall below KOL survey expectations.

What to watch

• Updates on Icotyde’s first full quarter of sales and launch metrics in JNJ’s 2Q26 results.
• Whether the number of prescribers continues to expand rapidly from approximately 4,500.
• Icotyde’s share among patients initiating systemic therapy and the proportion switching from oral drugs such as Otezla and Sotyktu.
• Whether insurance coverage success rates improve as the launch matures.
• R&D progress for Icotyde in subsequent indications such as PsA, UC, and CD.
• Whether injectable IL-23 therapies such as Tremfya and Skyrizi retain their status as physicians’ preferred choices.