Key Takeaways from Nomura’s NIFA 2026 Report for Jin Yuan Electronics (2449.TW)

Overview

This report provides a summary of Nomura Securities’ key takeaways from Jin Yuan Electronics’ NIFA 2026 meeting. The report notes that Jin Yuan Electronics’ management remains optimistic about the company’s current business performance and has responded to recent technological developments, customer project progress, capital expenditures, and competitive dynamics. The institution maintains a Buy rating, with a target price of NT$360, believing that continued growth in AI demand and expansion of next-generation XPU capacity will drive the company’s performance growth.

Core views

The report offers a detailed analysis of Jin Yuan Electronics’ business dynamics and future outlook. First, the company reaffirmed its revenue guidance for the second quarter of 2026, projecting low double-digit year-over-year growth, stable gross margins, and a full-year revenue growth target of 40%. Additionally, the revenue share from AI chips is expected to rise from 20–30% in 2025 to 35–40% in 2026, primarily driven by product mix optimization. Second, the company’s largest XPU customer remains a major source of revenue; the next-generation XPU is currently in the engineering development stage, where it shares capacity with the CPU, and the company provides comprehensive support, viewing the risk of competition as relatively low. At the same time, the company is supporting a critical ASIC project, and another key ASIC project is expected to see increased demand for testing services starting in the second half of 2026. Furthermore, the company plans to invest NT$5 billion in capital expenditures in 2026, with half of the funds allocated to facility and cleanroom construction. The company also operates a new factory in Tongluo to support demand in the first half of 2027. Equipment deployment timelines depend on customer needs. Finally, the company believes that current testing equipment is not a bottleneck—testing equipment delivery times are within normal ranges (approximately 5–6 months), and there are no signs of rising testing equipment prices. Supply chain bottlenecks are more likely to stem from TSMC’s (2330.TW) production capacity. The company prioritizes addressing space constraints.

Analysis framework

The report evaluates Jin Yuan Electronics’ business prospects by analyzing its financial data, market dynamics, and industry trends. The institution employs the following analytical methods: 1. **Revenue and Gross Margin Forecasts**: Based on historical data and current market conditions, the report forecasts the company’s future revenue and gross margin performance. 2. **Product Mix Analysis**: By examining the revenue share of different products, the report assesses the company’s business diversification and growth potential. 3. **Market Demand Assessment**: Combining AI chips and XPU technologies, the report evaluates how changes in market demand impact the company. 4. **Supply Chain Analysis**: The report assesses the impact of supply chain bottlenecks on the company’s operations, particularly regarding testing equipment and TSMC’s production capacity.

Methodology notes

• Valuation MethodPE/PEG valuation

  PE/PEG Valuation

  The report uses a 25x 2027 expected earnings per share (EPS) as the valuation basis, a multiple that is at a historical high, based on the Taiwan Weighted Index (TAIEX).

• Industry/Industrial Analysis FrameworkSupply-demand framework

  Supply-Demand Framework

  The report analyzes the market demand for AI chips and XPU, as well as supply conditions, concluding that growing AI demand and expanding next-generation XPU capacity will drive the company’s performance growth.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Jin Yuan Electronics (2449.TW)

  Benefiting from growth in AI chip and XPU businesses

  Strengths

  Increased AI chip revenue share, expanded XPU capacity

  Weaknesses

  Supply chain bottlenecks may impact production capacity

  Comparison

  Compared to other semiconductor testing companies, Jin Yuan Electronics demonstrates stronger competitiveness in the AI chip and XPU domains

  Risks

  AI demand falling short of expectations, delays in XPU capacity expansion

Key data

• Full-Year Revenue Growth Target for 202640%Based on 2025 revenue growth figures, the company expects full-year revenue growth of 40% in 2026.
• AI Chip Revenue Share35–40%The revenue share from AI chips is projected to rise to 35–40% in 2026.
• Capital Expenditures for 2026NT$5 billionFunds will be used primarily for facility and cleanroom construction.
• Target PriceNT$360Based on a 25x 2027 expected earnings per share (EPS).

Impact & implications

The report suggests that Jin Yuan Electronics’ AI chip and XPU businesses will continue to benefit from growing market demand, with the expansion of next-generation XPU capacity yielding significant gains. Meanwhile, the company’s proactive measures to address supply chain bottlenecks should help mitigate potential risks.

Risks

• Weak demand for AI chips and smartphones
• Intensifying competition in the backend testing market
• Unrealized commercialization and sustainability of AI projects

What to watch

• Progress in AI chip and XPU businesses
• Capacity expansion in the second half of 2026
• Mitigation of supply chain bottlenecks