EV orders were weak in early August, awaiting catalysts from new products and the Chengdu Motor Show

Overview

Based on channel feedback from August 3 to 9, 2026, the report tracks weekly orders for major Chinese EV brands. The start of August was weak due to extreme weather, with only a few brands benefiting from new product catalysts achieving clear week-on-week growth, and the industry order recovery has not yet broadened. The research believes that new models, facelifts, and promotional activities brought by the Chengdu Motor Show around August 21 may improve subsequent seasonal orders.

Core views

First, weekly industry demand remains muted, and the current improvement is driven more by individual models or new product launches than by a synchronized industry-wide rebound. Second, the performance of HIMA and Li Auto confirms that new products can quickly drive orders, with the Maextro V series and Li Auto i8 being the main contributors. Third, BYD, Geely Galaxy, and Leapmotor are relatively stable, but BYD’s new order momentum is constrained by battery capacity bottlenecks. Fourth, orders for NIO, XPeng, Tesla China, Zeekr, and Xiaomi declined during the week, with some brands also affected by consumers waiting for new models. Fifth, the Chengdu Motor Show, new vehicle launches, and promotions will be key to determining whether orders can broaden and recover in the remainder of August.

Analysis framework

The research uses dealer and sales channel feedback to construct weekly order ranges, and analyzes brand momentum by combining week-on-week changes, monthly comparisons, year-on-year changes, model mix, and new product launch timing; it also identifies the breadth, sustainability, and main catalysts of the industry recovery through cross-brand comparisons.

Methodology notes

• High-frequency operating trackingWeekly order channel survey

  Uses channel feedback to estimate the weekly order range for major EV brands.

  This method can identify demand inflection points and the impact of new products earlier, but the data are channel estimates rather than official sales or financial data disclosed by automakers.

• Trend comparisonWeek-on-week and year-on-year momentum analysis

  Compares week-on-week, monthly trends, and year-on-year changes to distinguish short-term volatility from structural growth.

  The report explains order changes by combining extreme weather, model transitions, and promotional factors; some original figures have unclear symbol recognition, so directional judgments are based on the text’s description of brand performance.

• Event-driven analysisNew product and auto show catalyst tracking

  Assesses future order conversion through model launches, facelifts, auto shows, and promotion schedules.

  The focus is on whether new models around the Chengdu Motor Show can extend improvements in individual brands into a seasonal recovery at the industry level.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• BYD Company Limited（1211.HK／002594.SZ）

  Major EV manufacturer and industry order bellwether

  Strengths

  Weekly orders were approximately 69,400 to 69,900, leading in scale and maintaining slight growth during the week; multiple new models provide subsequent catalysts.

  Weaknesses

  Battery capacity bottlenecks are limiting new order momentum.

  Comparison

  Compared with most major EV brands, its performance during the week was more resilient.

  Risks

  Capacity constraints, weaker-than-expected new model conversion, and promotional competition may pressure growth and profitability.

• Geely Automobile Holdings（0175.HK）

  Participates in China’s NEV competition through Geely Galaxy

  Strengths

  Galaxy weekly orders were approximately 15,900 to 16,400, up about 6% week-on-week, showing relatively stable performance.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not provide validation of the impact of order growth on margins or sustainability.

  Comparison

  One of the few major brands to achieve weekly improvement.

  Risks

  Intensifying industry promotions and new product competition may affect the continuity of subsequent orders.

• Li Auto Inc.（2015.HK／LI.O）

  Major NEV manufacturer driven by new products

  Strengths

  Weekly orders increased by about 23%, with the i-series contributing about 7,000 orders and accounting for about 60% of total orders; the i8 version provided a clear boost.

  Weaknesses

  The current improvement is relatively dependent on the i-series and a single new product catalyst.

  Comparison

  Its weekly growth significantly led most major EV brands, but was below HIMA.

  Risks

  Fading new product popularity, high model concentration, and competing model launches may lead to order volatility.

• NIO Inc.（9866.HK／NIO.N）

  Chinese premium NEV manufacturer

  Strengths

  Still maintained weekly order volume of approximately 9,500 to 9,700.

  Weaknesses

  Orders declined during the week, with Onvo down about 17% week-on-week.

  Comparison

  Short-term momentum was weaker than HIMA, Li Auto, BYD, and Geely Galaxy.

  Risks

  Weaker sub-brand momentum, intensified competition, and slower-than-expected order recovery.

• XPeng Inc.（9868.HK／XPEV.N）

  Chinese smart EV manufacturer

  Strengths

  Monthly trends still show some improvement, and the G9L launch may form a new catalyst.

  Weaknesses

  Weekly orders declined by about 17%, L03 momentum weakened, and the G series fell ahead of the new product launch.

  Comparison

  Performance during the week was weaker than HIMA and Li Auto, which had strong new product contributions.

  Risks

  Consumers waiting for new products, weakening momentum of older models, and weaker-than-expected G9L order conversion.

• Tesla China

  Important competitor in China’s EV market

  Strengths

  Maintained weekly order volume of approximately 8,000 to 8,200.

  Weaknesses

  Orders declined during the week, lacking the clear new product boost described in the report.

  Comparison

  Short-term order momentum was weaker than HIMA, Li Auto, and Geely Galaxy.

  Risks

  New product competition from local brands, promotional pressure, and demand fluctuations.

• Leapmotor

  Chinese NEV manufacturer

  Strengths

  Weekly orders were approximately 15,400 to 15,600, with relatively high scale and resilient year-on-year performance.

  Weaknesses

  Orders still edged down during the week.

  Comparison

  The report lists it as one of the relatively resilient brands.

  Risks

  Industry price competition and uncertainty over the conversion of order growth into profitability.

Key data

• BYD weekly ordersApproximately 69,400 to 69,900 orders, up about 1% week-on-weekPerformance was relatively stable, but battery capacity bottlenecks limited new order momentum; models such as Seal 06, Qin Max, and Sealion 08 are worth watching.
• Geely Galaxy weekly ordersApproximately 15,900 to 16,400 orders, up about 6% week-on-weekOne of the relatively resilient brands during the week.
• Li Auto weekly ordersApproximately 12,100 to 12,300 orders, up about 23% week-on-weekThe i-series contributed about 7,000 orders, accounting for about 60%, mainly driven by the i8 version.
• HIMA weekly ordersApproximately 12,100 to 12,300 orders, up about 57% week-on-weekThe Maextro V series contributed more than 4,000 orders; Aito contributed approximately 4,800 to 5,000 orders.
• NIO weekly ordersApproximately 9,500 to 9,700 ordersOrders declined during the week, with Onvo down about 17% week-on-week.
• XPeng weekly ordersApproximately 8,550 to 8,700 orders, down about 17% week-on-weekL03 order momentum weakened, and the G series declined ahead of the G9L launch.
• Tesla China weekly ordersApproximately 8,000 to 8,200 ordersOrders declined during the week, underperforming the few brands with new product catalysts.
• Leapmotor weekly ordersApproximately 15,400 to 15,600 ordersOrders edged down during the week, but year-on-year performance remained resilient.
• Zeekr weekly ordersApproximately 5,770 to 5,900 ordersOrders declined during the week, while X-series orders remained stable at about 3,300.
• Xiaomi weekly ordersApproximately 6,000 to 6,200 ordersOrders declined during the week.

Impact & implications

Short-term industry demand remains in a phase driven by new products with significant divergence. A single popular model can significantly improve a brand’s orders, but this is not yet sufficient to confirm a broad recovery. If the Chengdu Motor Show, new vehicle launches, and promotions broaden the scope of order improvement, industry sentiment may recover in the second half of August; if orders remain concentrated in a few brands, market competition, promotional pressure, and market share redistribution among brands will continue to intensify.

Risks

• Extreme weather may continue to disrupt showroom traffic, test drives, and order conversion.
• The current scope of order recovery is narrow, and improvements brought by a few new products may not necessarily spread across the entire industry.
• Battery or supply chain capacity bottlenecks at automakers such as BYD may limit order intake and delivery.
• Consumers delaying purchases ahead of new model launches may lead to further weakening in orders for older models.
• Promotions may stimulate orders, but they may also intensify price competition and compress industry margins.
• Channel feedback is a high-frequency estimate and may differ from the orders, deliveries, and revenue ultimately announced by automakers.
• The report involves U.S. Executive Order 14032 and export control matters, and some investors may face securities trading eligibility or compliance restrictions.
• Morgan Stanley has shareholding, investment banking, market-making, or other commercial relationships with some covered companies, and investors should make independent judgments in conjunction with conflict-of-interest disclosures.

What to watch

• New vehicle, facelift, and promotional arrangements around the Chengdu Motor Show near August 21.
• Whether post-show weekly industry orders expand from improvements in a few brands into a broader recovery.
• Whether BYD’s battery capacity bottleneck eases, and the order performance of Seal 06, Qin Max, and Sealion 08.
• Whether the Li Auto i8 single-motor version and the i-series’ roughly 60% order share can be sustained.
• Whether the momentum of HIMA Maextro V series orders exceeding 4,000 can continue.
• XPeng G9L order conversion after launch and whether the G series can resume growth.
• Whether the decline in orders for NIO’s Onvo stabilizes.
• The overall impact of promotions on order growth, market share, and automaker profitability.