Nanya Technology 2Q26 confirms DRAM resilience, and Goldman believes Samsung Electronics’s Buy thesis remains supported

Overview

This is a Goldman Sachs Asia Pacific Technology Semiconductor Storage sector company report that maps Samsung Electronics through Nanya Technology 2Q26 results. The report highlights that Nanya Technology’s strong ASP growth, operating margin improvement, and constructive storage supply-demand outlook are consistent with Goldman Sachs’s positive view on the memory industry, further supporting a Buy rating on Samsung Electronics.

Core views

Key views include: first, DRAM pricing momentum is strong, with Nanya Technology 2Q26 ASP up more than 60% sequentially and Samsung Electronics traditional DRAM ASP estimated to be up 47% sequentially; second, margin leverage is meaningful, with Nanya Technology OPM rising to 74% and Samsung Electronics DRAM OPM estimated at 80%; third, AI and general-server demand is driving storage demand and limiting non-server supply, with tightness likely to persist for several quarters; fourth, long-term agreements help smooth storage-cycle volatility, and recent capacity expansion was seen as aligned with multi-year LTA.

Analysis framework

The report uses peer performance mapping and industry supply-demand validation, mapping Nanya Technology’s uncovered 2Q26 operating results and management outlook to Samsung Electronics’ DRAM business performance and investment rating. On valuation, Goldman Sachs uses an EV/EBITDA-based SOTP method based on 2026-2027E to set a target price for Samsung Electronics common shares, and sets the preferred-share target using the discount to common shares.

Methodology notes

• Peer MappingRead-across

  Use Nanya Technology 2Q26 results and industry outlook to validate Samsung Electronics DRAM business trends.

  As a Taiwan-based DRAM manufacturer, Nanya Technology’s ASP, OPM, and supply-demand commentary are used as external evidence of storage-cycle health and are mapped to Samsung Electronics traditional DRAM pricing and profitability.

• Valuation methodsEV/EBITDA-based SOTP

  Segment sum-of-the-parts valuation based on 2026-2027E EV/EBITDA.

  Goldman Sachs assigns a 12-month target price of W480,000 for Samsung Electronics common shares and W360,000 for preferred shares; the preferred share target is set using a 25% target discount versus common shares.

• Style and Fundamental ProfileGS Factor Profile

  Compare stock attributes across Growth, Financial Returns, Multiple, and Integrated dimensions.

  This framework uses Goldman Sachs forecast data to normalize growth, financial returns, and valuation multiples and generate a composite percentile for investment context.

• M&A ScoringM&A Rank

  Rate the probability of a covered company being acquired on a 1-to-3 scale.

  M&A Rank 1 indicates a high probability of 30%-50%, 2 indicates a medium probability of 15%-30%, and 3 indicates a low probability of 0%-15%; Rank 1 or 2 is typically included in target price upside consideration.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Samsung Electronics (005930.KS)

  Core beneficiary and Goldman-covered name

  Strengths

  DRAM ASP rising, DRAM OPM at a high level, AI and server demand supporting the storage cycle, and a Buy rating with a W480,000 target.

  Weaknesses

  Still exposed to storage supply-demand cycles, smartphone margin movement, and mobile OLED share volatility.

  Comparison

  Improvements in Nanya Technology ASP and OPM are used as mapping evidence; Goldman sees Nanya Technology’s industry narrative as consistent with improving sentiment in Samsung Electronics storage demand.

  Risks

  Significant deterioration in storage supply-demand, sharp smartphone margin compression, and loss of mobile OLED market share.

• Samsung Electronics (Pref) (005935.KS)

  Preferred-share investment target of the same issuer

  Strengths

  Also rated Buy, 12-month target of W360,000, and valuation based on a 25% target discount to common shares.

  Weaknesses

  Returns remain dependent on common-share fundamentals and the preferred-share discount assumption.

  Comparison

  Compared with the common-share target price of W480,000, preferred-share target is set at a 25% discount.

  Risks

  Common-share fundamental risk, widening preferred-share discount, and storage cycle downside.

• Nanya Technology

  Peer mapping sample, not covered

  Strengths

  2Q26 DRAM ASP rose more than 60% sequentially, OPM increased to 74%, and management maintained a constructive view that supply-demand is likely to remain tight in coming quarters.

  Weaknesses

  Tagged as Not Covered with no Goldman Sachs investment rating provided.

  Comparison

  Its results and management commentary are presented as support for Goldman’s constructive view on the storage industry and Samsung Electronics.

  Risks

  If future ASP momentum slows or supply growth exceeds expectations, the strength of its evidence for industry health would weaken.

Key data

• Nanya Technology 2Q26 DRAM ASPup more than 60% sequentiallyUp more than 70% sequentially in 1Q26.
• Nanya Technology 2Q26 OPM74%Improved by 13 percentage points sequentially, driven by strong ASP growth.
• Samsung Electronics 2Q26 conventional DRAM ASP estimateup 47% sequentiallyEstimated by Goldman Sachs based on industry read-across.
• Samsung Electronics 2Q26 DRAM OPM estimate80%Goldman Sachs estimates materially improved profitability in Samsung Electronics DRAM.
• Samsung Electronics common share target priceW480,00012-month target price based on 2026-2027E EV/EBITDA SOTP.
• Samsung Electronics preferred share target priceW360,000Based on a 25% target discount relative to common shares.
• Preferred share target discount25%Derived from the average of the two-factor model preferred-discount assumption and the past one-month average preferred-share discount.
• Key downside risksstorage supply-demand deterioration, sharp contraction in smartphone margins, and mobile OLED share lossKey downside risks identified in the report.

Impact & implications

The investment implication for Samsung Electronics is broadly constructive: Nanya Technology’s results provide industry evidence of improving DRAM pricing and profitability; AI and server demand increase the visibility of sustained storage cyclicality, and long-term agreements may reduce volatility in traditional storage cycles. If tight supply-demand persists, Samsung Electronics’ DRAM earnings and target price support become stronger. If storage supply-demand deteriorates, or if smartphone and mobile OLED businesses weaken, the rating and valuation case could face pressure.

Risks

• Material deterioration in storage supply-demand conditions.
• Sharp contraction in smartphone margins.
• Loss of mobile OLED market share.
• If AI and general-server demand falls short of expectations, storage demand growth and tight supply-demand logic may weaken.
• If long-term agreements do not effectively smooth cycles, storage operations may still face traditional cyclical volatility.

What to watch

• Quarter-on-quarter ASP changes at Nanya Technology and other DRAM manufacturers in subsequent periods.
• Whether Samsung Electronics DRAM OPM remains elevated.
• Whether AI servers and general servers continue to support storage demand.
• Whether non-server storage supply remains constrained.
• Whether recent greenfield expansion announcements align with multi-year LTA and whether they raise overcapacity concerns.
• Price movement versus the 12-month target prices for Samsung Electronics common and preferred shares.