Luckin's leading edge remains intact, while the recovery in franchise store profits is offset by labor and operational complexity
AI summary card
Luckin's leading edge remains intact, while the recovery in franchise store profits is offset by labor and operational complexity
JPMorgan's expert call indicates that Luckin's same-store sales remain under pressure, but average ticket size and gross margin are recovering; Chagee is stabilizing, though franchisee returns are affected by seasonality and revenue sharing; Mixue's coffee rollout looks more like a defensive move.
- Affected by weakening demand and intensifying competition, most Luckin stores operated by the expert saw GMV decline 10–15% YoY YTD, but reduced RMB 9.9 promotions, higher prices on delivery platforms, and premium new products drove a recovery in average ticket size.
- Luckin's store-level gross margin recovered to about 35% in 2Q26, but additional labor costs of about RMB 4–5k per store per month, rising social security costs, greater SKU complexity, and higher waste limited net margin expansion.
- Non-coffee beverages already account for about 30% of Luckin's YTD GMV and could rise to 40–50% over the long term, but the use of fresh fruit and higher labor intensity make franchisees less enthusiastic.
- Chagee's GMV decline is stabilizing, with peak-season monthly GMV per store expected to exceed RMB 400k and store profit margins around 15–16%; in the off-season, this could fall to RMB 200k–300k with profit margins around 8–9%.
- The rollout of coffee machines at Mixue is viewed as partly driven by weak Lucky Cup economics; the expert said about 70% of Lucky Cup franchisees are losing money, while consumers are willing to pay RMB 2–3 more for Luckin.
Report interpretation
Overview
This report is a summary of JPMorgan's franchisee expert call held on July 27, 2026. The interviewed expert operates 49 Luckin Coffee stores, 3 Chagee stores, and 2 Mixue stores, covering regions including Hebei, Henan, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Anhui. The discussion focused on assessing the fade-out of third-party delivery subsidies, intensifying competition, store-level execution pressure, and franchisee economics across different brands.
Core views
The core judgment is that Luckin still maintains a relatively clear competitive lead, with recovery in average ticket size and store gross margin, but same-store sales remain under pressure, while labor, social security, SKU complexity, and waste constrain net margin improvement; Chagee's operating performance is stabilizing, but the unit economics of franchisees are heavily affected by seasonality and revenue-sharing mechanisms; Mixue's push into coffee is more defensive, with prominent profitability pressure on Lucky Cup franchisees, and low-priced coffee has limited consumer substitution effect versus Luckin.
Analysis framework
The report uses franchisee expert interviews to assess the recent operating temperature of China's freshly made coffee and tea beverage sectors across dimensions including store GMV, cup volume, average ticket size, delivery mix, gross margin, labor cost, payback period, SKU complexity, and brand competitive landscape.
Methodology notes
store-level temperature check
By interviewing franchisees across multiple brands and regions, the report observes changes in end demand, competitive pressure, subsidy roll-off, and operating costs.
franchise store economics
It evaluates the quality of franchisee returns and the sustainability of expansion using indicators such as GMV, gross margin, labor costs, waste, and capital expenditure.
comparison of Luckin, Chagee, Mixue, and Lucky Cup
It compares management specialization, product iteration, consumer willingness to pay, and pressure from low-price substitution across brands to assess competitive advantages and risks.
Asset mapping & comparison
Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).
- Luckin Coffee (LKNCY)Key company discussed in the report, rated OW
- Strengths
- Strong brand and product iteration capabilities, with a more professional franchise development and management system; recovery in ASP and store gross margin, while non-coffee beverages provide an additional growth lever.
- Weaknesses
- Same-store sales remain under pressure, with cup volume declining; higher labor, social security, SKU complexity, and waste offset part of the gross margin improvement.
- Comparison
- Compared with Cotti and tea beverage brands entering the coffee market, the expert believes Luckin still has advantages in its franchise system, product iteration, and brand building.
- Risks
- Intensifying competition, limited further normalization in delivery mix, lengthening store payback periods, and higher operational complexity from non-coffee SKUs.
- Chagee (CHA)Company discussed in the report, rated OW
- Strengths
- The GMV decline is stabilizing, new product launches are becoming more frequent, and slower store expansion helps stabilize operating performance.
- Weaknesses
- Franchisee unit economics remain the key issue, with large seasonal swings in margins, and the current take-rate mechanism is still considered too high.
- Comparison
- Compared with Luckin, Chagee is more affected by seasonality and franchise profit-sharing mechanisms; the gelato business is still at an early stage.
- Risks
- Off-season GMV declines, compressed store margins, relatively high RMB 150k per-store capex for gelato, and weaker-than-expected optimization of the take-rate mechanism.
- Mixue Group - H (2097.HK)Company discussed in the report, rated UW
- Strengths
- A broad store network and a strong foundation in lower-tier markets, with channel capability to roll out coffee machines.
- Weaknesses
- The expert's stores are in lower-tier regions and do not have coffee machines installed; Lucky Cup economics are under pressure, with about 70% of franchisees losing money.
- Comparison
- Consumers are willing to pay RMB 2–3 more for Luckin, indicating limited substitution from low-priced Lucky Cup to Luckin.
- Risks
- Coffee business rollout may underperform expectations, franchisee profitability pressure may persist, and the low-price strategy may fail to improve consumer conversion.
Key data
- Luckin store GMVMost interviewed Luckin stores saw YTD GMV decline 10–15% YoYMainly affected by weaker demand, newly opened Luckin stores, and intensifying peer competition.
- Luckin delivery mixabout 50%Down significantly from about 80% at the peak of last year's subsidy war, but consumers have already formed strong delivery habits, so further normalization room may be limited.
- Luckin store gross marginabout 35% in 2Q26Recovered from the wide range of about 28–45% during last year's delivery subsidy war.
- Luckin incremental labor costabout RMB 4–5k per store per month; about RMB 60–70k per yearCould drag net margin by about 1–2 percentage points.
- Luckin non-coffee product mixabout 30% of GMV YTD, potentially rising to 40–50% over the long termGrowth potential comes from denser network coverage and penetration into lower-tier cities, but it also increases complexity in fresh fruit, labor, and inventory management.
- Luckin community store payback periodCommunity stores with daily average sales of about 300 cups have a payback period of about 3 years or longerReflects a lengthening return period under competitive and cost pressures.
- Chagee peak-season GMV and marginMonthly GMV per store in July is expected to exceed RMB 400k, with store margin around 15–16%Peak-season performance is relatively strong, but the difference between peak and off seasons is clear.
- Chagee off-season GMV and marginMonthly GMV per store in the off-season is about RMB 200k–300k, with margin around 8–9%Franchisee returns are sensitive to seasonality and revenue-sharing mechanisms.
- Chagee gelato capital expenditureabout RMB 150k per storeThe expert believes this is relatively high for franchisees, and the business is still at an early stage.
- Lucky Cup profitabilityabout 70% of franchisees are losing moneyThe expert believes Mixue's push to equip stores with coffee machines is partly due to Lucky Cup's weak economics.
Impact & implications
For investment judgment, the implication is that Luckin's brand, product iteration, and franchise management capabilities can still support a relatively leading position, and recovery in ASP and gross margin is a positive signal, but earnings elasticity may be smaller than the improvement in gross margin; Chagee needs to improve its franchisee take-rate and profit-sharing mechanism to stabilize expansion quality; Mixue's low-price strategy in coffee may struggle to materially erode Luckin because consumers are willing to pay an extra RMB 2–3 for Luckin.
Risks
- Demand recovery may be weaker than expected after the rollback of third-party delivery subsidies.
- New store openings and peer competition may continue to drive down Luckin's same-store sales.
- Rising labor, social security, fresh fruit waste, and SKU complexity may pressure store net margins.
- Chagee's off-season GMV and profit margins may decline, worsening franchisee returns.
- If Mixue's coffee business continues to lose money, it may undermine franchisee confidence and category expansion.
- The report is based on a single expert call, with limited sample coverage, and conclusions should be cross-validated with subsequent company data and industry tracking.
What to watch
- Whether ASP recovery can continue after Luckin reduces RMB 9.9 promotions.
- Whether Luckin's delivery mix stabilizes at about 50%, and changes in delivery platform pricing strategy.
- Whether non-coffee beverages rise toward 40–50% of Luckin's GMV, and whether this brings higher waste at the same time.
- Whether Luckin community stores' daily average cup volume and approximately 3-year payback period improve.
- Whether Chagee introduces a more tiered profit-sharing or take-rate mechanism.
- The pace of Chagee gelato store expansion, per-store capital expenditure, and return performance.
- Whether the proportion of loss-making Lucky Cup franchisees declines, and the actual conversion effect of Mixue's coffee machine rollout.