Goldman Sachs June Nuclear Tracker: Term Uranium Price Rises to $93, Global SMR Deployment Accelerates

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs' June 2026 edition of the Global Nuclear Reactor Tracker, focusing on the latest developments in nuclear power projects across North America, Europe, and Asia from May to early June, Small Modular Reactor (SMR) dynamics, fuel supply chain updates, and uranium market price trends. Key conclusions indicate that despite short-term volatility in spot uranium prices, term contract prices have continued to strengthen to $93/lb, confirming a structurally high price range amid expectations of supply shortages. Meanwhile, global nuclear construction remains active, particularly in the SMR sector, where substantial licensing or engineering breakthroughs have occurred in the US, South Korea, and Sweden. Notably, the US achieved its first reactor criticality in 40 years, marking a significant milestone in technology validation.

Core views

In the uranium market, spot and term contract prices have diverged but remain generally strong. In early May, spot U3O8 prices stabilized around $86/lb, dipped briefly to $83/lb in late May, and rebounded to $85-86/lb by late May/early June; trading activity was primarily driven by traders, with financial participation (e.g., SPUT) appearing opportunistic. In contrast, term contract prices were more resilient, with long-term indicators holding near $90/lb and rising to $93/lb by end-May. The report attributes this to tightening supply-demand fundamentals, projecting that primary production in 2026 will fall below base demand, necessitating secondary supply supplements to support long-term price signals. Regarding global reactor construction, key progress has been made on projects in multiple countries. First concrete was poured for Unit 4 of China's Taipingling Nuclear Power Plant on May 10, marking the entry of all six Hualong One units at the site into full-scale construction. South Korea's Shin-Hanul Unit 4 (APR1400) officially broke ground, targeting completion in 2033. Construction of Iran's Bushehr Unit 2 is over 60% complete, with Russia's Rosatom continuing to advance the project. Additionally, Kazakhstan approved a domestic supply chain localization plan (targeting 30%) and signed an agreement with Russia to build its first nuclear power plant; Argentina's Atucha IIa received a 10-year operating license extension through 2036. The SMR (Small Modular Reactor) sector is experiencing intensive catalysts. The US Department of Energy (DOE) awarded approximately $94 million to eight companies to support near-term SMR deployment. Most notably, Antares Nuclear's Mark-0 advanced reactor successfully completed a zero-power fuel criticality demonstration under the DOE Reactor Pilot Program, one month ahead of the presidential executive order deadline, marking the first reactor criticality in the US in over 40 years. Other developments include: the FANCO and AtkinsRéalis consortium deploying the EAGL-1 SMR; Deep Fission planning to raise $156 million via IPO to develop underground borehole SMRs; Sweden's Blykalla applying to build a 6-unit SEALER SMR plant; and the US NRC completing the environmental assessment for the Long Mott SMR project and accepting the KRONOS microreactor application. Russia's Rosatom completed the first RITM-200C floating nuclear power plant reactor unit and began mass production. On the fuel and supply chain front, critical bottlenecks are being resolved. BWXT secured Kairos Power as the first customer for its $500 million TRISO fuel plant, expected to be operational in 2030-2031. X-energy disclosed that its TX-1 fuel fabrication facility is 56% complete, expected to come online in H1 2028, capable of supporting 11 reactors. Antares signed a long-term HALEU supply agreement with Urenco, the first multi-year HALEU contract. The US NRC is accelerating the review of Orano's Project IKE uranium enrichment plant, aiming to complete the technical licensing review within 12 months. Oklo was selected to participate in the DOE surplus plutonium utilization program to convert legacy material into advanced reactor fuel.

Analysis framework

The report employs a framework combining bottom-up project tracking with top-down commodity pricing analysis. First, it constructs a micro-level evidence chain for industry sentiment by reviewing the latest announcements (e.g., groundbreakings, grid connections, shutdowns, policy signings) in major global nuclear markets on a country-by-country and project-by-project basis, paying special attention to licensing and engineering milestones in the emerging SMR sub-sector to gauge the pace of technology commercialization. Second, at the commodity level, it distinguishes between Spot and Term contract pricing mechanisms, analyzing transaction volumes, financial participant behavior (e.g., trust fund movements), and supply-demand gap forecasts (2026 production vs. demand) to explain the structural drivers behind prices. This dual-track analytical approach aims to reveal discrepancies between short-term market sentiment fluctuations and long-term fundamental trends, helping investors identify true price support logic.

Methodology notes

• Industry/Sector Analysis FrameworkSupply-demand framework

  Supply-Demand Fundamental Analysis

  By comparing projected primary uranium production in 2026 against base demand, the report identifies a supply gap requiring secondary supply to fill. This supply-demand imbalance is the core logic supporting the structural rise in term uranium prices, reflecting the long-term deterministic role of supply rigidity on prices in the resource sector.

• Industry/Sector Analysis FrameworkUpstream-Midstream-Downstream Value Chain Transmission

  Nuclear Fuel Cycle Value Chain Tracking

  Beyond end-use power plant construction, the report deeply tracks upstream uranium mining, midstream conversion/enrichment (e.g., Orano Project IKE), and downstream fuel fabrication (e.g., BWXT TRISO, X-energy TX-1). This full-value-chain perspective helps identify bottleneck segments (e.g., HALEU supply) and their impact on value capture capabilities of relevant companies.

• Event Arbitrage & Behavioral Finance

  Analysis of Spot vs. Term Contract Pricing Mechanism Differences

  The report distinguishes between spot prices (subject to higher volatility due to short-term sentiment from traders and financial capital) and term contract prices (reflecting utilities' long-term supply-demand balance judgments, exhibiting greater stickiness). Observing the spread and divergence between the two allows for determining whether the market is driven by short-term speculation or undergoing long-term fundamental restructuring.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• BWXT

  Beneficiary: Secured first external TRISO fuel customer, Kairos Power

  Strengths

  Early external demand validation; plant expected operational 2030-31; supports advanced reactor deployment

  Risks

  Risk of construction schedule delays

• X-energy (XE)

  Beneficiary: Update on construction progress of TX-1 fuel fabrication facility

  Strengths

  TX-1 56% complete, expected operational H2 2028, supports 11 reactors; TX-2 planned to support 44

  Risks

  Risk of delayed commissioning

• Antares Nuclear

  Beneficiary: Achieved first US reactor criticality in 40 years; signed HALEU term contract

  Strengths

  Technical milestone achieved (ahead of deadline); secured long-term fuel supply from Urenco

  Risks

  Uncertainty regarding subsequent regulatory approvals

• Deep Fission

  Beneficiary: Planned IPO financing to advance underground SMR R&D

  Strengths

  Innovative 15 MWe borehole SMR design targeting large users like data centers

  Weaknesses

  In early R&D/licensing stage

  Risks

  Risk of failed IPO or insufficient fundraising; technology feasibility risk

• Orano

  Beneficiary: Project IKE uranium enrichment plant enters accelerated review

  Strengths

  NRC targets completing technical review within 12 months; critical step toward construction approval

  Risks

  Licensing review outcome falling short of expectations

• Rolls-Royce SMR

  Beneficiary: Selected pre-production partners for key components

  Strengths

  Selected Skoda JS and Doosan Enerbility, enhancing manufacturing readiness and early delivery capability

  Risks

  Supply chain execution risk

Key data

• Spot Uranium Price (U3O8)~$85-86/lbRebound level from late May to early June; previous low approx. $83/lb
• Term Uranium Price Indicator~$93/lbLevel reached by end-May; long-term indicator hovered around $90/lb
• US DOE SMR Funding~$94 MillionAwarded to 8 companies to support near-term SMR deployment
• Deep Fission IPO Fundraising Target~$156 MillionValuation target $1.66 billion; for R&D and first pilot reactor
• X-energy TX-1 Facility Progress56%Expected to be operational in H1 2028; can support 11 reactors at steady state
• Iran Bushehr Unit 2 Progress>60%Steam generators approx. 50% complete
• Kazakhstan Localization Target~30%Increasing local content share in upcoming nuclear projects

Impact & implications

The report suggests that the sustained strengthening of term uranium prices confirms structural supply tightness amid the nuclear renaissance, which is positive for companies with long-term uranium assets or production capacity. Intensive progress in the SMR sector, particularly US regulatory milestones (e.g., Antares criticality, completion of NRC environmental assessments) and commercial contract signings (e.g., BWXT, Antares-HALEU), indicates that this technology pathway is moving from proof-of-concept to early commercial deployment, with related equipment manufacturers and fuel suppliers set to benefit first. Groundbreakings on new projects globally (e.g., China, South Korea) and life extensions of existing plants (e.g., India, Argentina) collectively form a stable medium-to-long-term demand base, offsetting noise from short-term spot price volatility.

Risks

• Regulatory Approval Delays: Licensing reviews for SMRs or new facilities by the NRC or other national regulators taking longer than expected.
• Project Construction Delays: Large-scale nuclear projects or SMR demonstration reactors facing schedule slippage due to technical, supply chain, or labor issues.
• Uranium Price Volatility: Spot prices subject to significant pullbacks due to financial capital flows, impacting market sentiment.
• Geopolitical Risks: Cooperative projects involving Russia (Rosatom) potentially affected by sanctions or changes in international relations.
• Technology Validation Failures: Advanced reactors (e.g., molten salt reactors, fast reactors) encountering unforeseen technical hurdles during the demonstration phase.

What to watch

• Subsequent licensing decisions by the US NRC on Orano Project IKE and other SMR projects.
• Actual commissioning timeline and initial capacity ramp-up of X-energy's TX-1 fuel plant.
• Whether term uranium prices can stabilize above $90/lb and trend further upward.
• IPO progress and use of proceeds for startups like Deep Fission.
• Quarterly updates on construction progress of major nuclear projects in China and South Korea.
• Changes in purchasing activity by Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (SPUT) in the spot market.