China's semiconductor equipment imports in June fell 1% yoy and rose 45% mom

Overview

The report analyzes China customs monthly semiconductor equipment import data to track sales trends of global semiconductor equipment makers in the China market. China accounted for 33.5% of global wafer fab equipment demand in 2025, making it one of the most important regions for global semiconductor equipment companies. In June 2026, China's semiconductor equipment imports were US$4.7bn, above the average of US$3.9bn in the prior three months and the average of US$4.4bn in the prior 12 months; down 1% yoy and up 45% mom. On a 3-month moving average basis, imports fell 3% yoy and rose 1% mom, below the historical monthly average 3-month moving average growth rate of 5%.

Core views

The core conclusion is that June imports rebounded clearly month on month, but yoy and year-to-date data still show China's semiconductor equipment demand is in a normalization phase. Front-end equipment performed slightly better than the overall market, up 1% yoy and 57% mom in June; among them, lithography, process control, thermal processing, and other front-end equipment showed more notable sequential improvement. Back-end and related categories were generally weak yoy, but wire bonders rose 153% yoy, making them one of the few standout subsegments.

Analysis framework

The report uses China customs import value, import volume, ASP, yoy, mom, 3-month moving average, and year-to-date data as its main analytical metrics, and cross-compares total front-end equipment imports with China sales disclosed by five major equipment makers including Applied Materials, Lam Research, Tokyo Electron, ASML, and KLA Corporation to assess how indicative import data is for suppliers' China revenue trends.

Methodology notes

• Industry monthly data trackingChina customs semiconductor equipment import tracking

  Import value, import volume, ASP, yoy, mom, and year-to-date changes

  Observe demand changes across different semiconductor equipment categories through China's monthly customs import data, and use yoy, mom, and 3-month moving averages to reduce interference from single-month volatility.

• Industry cycle validationComparison of supplier-disclosed sales and customs import value

  Ratio of China sales disclosed by five major equipment suppliers to front-end equipment import value

  The report notes that China equipment sales disclosed by Applied Materials, Lam Research, Tokyo Electron, ASML, and KLA Corporation are roughly equal to 75% of China customs front-end equipment imports on an annual basis, so customs import data can serve as a high-frequency reference for equipment makers' China sales trends.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Global semiconductor equipment suppliers

  China import data can serve as a high-frequency reference for their China sales trends

  Strengths

  China accounted for 33.5% of global WFE demand in 2025, making the market important in scale; June imports rebounded clearly month on month.

  Weaknesses

  Year-to-date 2026, overall imports are down 9% yoy and front-end equipment is down 10% yoy, indicating the full year still reflects normalization.

  Comparison

  China equipment sales disclosed by the five major suppliers accounted for about 65% to 77% of China's front-end equipment import value from 2021 to 2025.

  Risks

  There is a timing gap between import data and company revenue recognition, and customs classification, ASP changes, and export controls may affect comparability.

• ASML and the lithography supply chain

  Lithography imports and Dutch lithography machine imports are highly correlated with its China demand

  Strengths

  June lithography imports rose 3% yoy and 184% mom; Dutch lithography machine imports rose 10% yoy and 191% mom.

  Weaknesses

  2Q26 lithography imports fell 13% yoy and 25% qoq, while year-to-date lithography imports are down 18% yoy.

  Comparison

  Since December 2023, the share of China's monthly lithography machine imports from the Netherlands has consistently stayed above about 90%.

  Risks

  Export controls, product mix changes, and delivery timing of high-ASP equipment may cause large monthly volatility.

• Applied Materials, Lam Research, Tokyo Electron, KLA Corporation and other front-end equipment suppliers

  Import changes in subcategories such as deposition, etching, and process control are related to their China sales trends

  Strengths

  Process control rose 24% yoy and 41% mom in June; both deposition and etching improved sequentially.

  Weaknesses

  Deposition fell 12% yoy in June, etching fell 24% yoy in June, and year-to-date etching is down 19% yoy.

  Comparison

  The report compares China sales disclosed by the five major suppliers with total front-end equipment imports to validate the signaling value of import data.

  Risks

  Product mix differs significantly across companies, so imports in a single category cannot be directly equated with one company's revenue.

Key data

• China semiconductor equipment importsUS$4.7bn in June 2026, down 1% yoy and up 45% momAbove the average of US$3.9bn from March to May 2026, and also above the average of US$4.4bn over the past 12 months.
• 3-month moving average importsDown 3% yoy and up 1% momBelow the historical monthly average 3-month moving average growth rate of 5%.
• Overall import trend year-to-date 2026Down 9% yoyConsistent with expectations of normalized China sales from most semiconductor equipment suppliers.
• Front-end equipment importsUS$3.4bn in June 2026, up 1% yoy and 57% momMainly driven by lithography, process control, thermal processing, and other front-end equipment.
• Front-end equipment imports year-to-dateUS$15.5bn, down 10% yoyLithography down 18% yoy, etching down 19% yoy, other front-end down 9% yoy, process control down 8% yoy, ion implantation down 4% yoy; thermal processing up 13% yoy, while deposition was broadly flat.
• Lithography equipment importsUS$842m in June 2026, up 3% yoy and 184% mom2Q26 lithography imports were down 13% yoy and 25% qoq; 2Q26 ASP was US$9.2m, below the average of US$13.8m over the past four quarters.
• Dutch lithography machine importsImport value in June 2026 rose 10% yoy and 191% momSince December 2023, the share of China's monthly lithography machine imports coming from the Netherlands has consistently stayed above about 90%; in June, Dutch lithography machines accounted for 95% of total lithography import value.
• Deposition equipment importsUS$831m in June 2026, down 12% yoy and up 17% momYear-to-date, deposition equipment imports were about US$4.1bn, broadly flat yoy.
• Etching equipment importsUS$505m in June 2026, down 24% yoy and up 32% momYear-to-date, etching equipment imports were about US$2.9bn, down 19% yoy.
• Process control equipment importsUS$444m in June 2026, up 24% yoy and 41% momOne of the stronger yoy-performing front-end equipment categories in June.
• Assembly and packaging equipment importsUS$415m in June 2026, down 6% yoy and up 21% momAmong them, wire bonders rose 153% yoy and 33% mom; die attach and bonding fell 9% yoy and rose 19% mom.
• China sales disclosed by the five major equipment suppliersUS$26.768bn in total in 2025, accounting for 65% of front-end equipment importsThe annual ratio from 2021 to 2025 was 65% to 77%, and the report believes this relationship supports using import data to track suppliers' China sales trends.

Impact & implications

In terms of investment implications, the June data provides some support to short-term sentiment because imports rebounded significantly from May, especially with clear sequential improvements in lithography, process control, and thermal processing. However, year-to-date overall and front-end equipment imports are still declining yoy, indicating that China's semiconductor equipment demand has not yet returned to a state of sustained expansion. For global semiconductor equipment suppliers, China remains a key market, but investors need to distinguish between a single-month sequential rebound and the full-year normalization trend.

Risks

• China's semiconductor equipment demand may continue to normalize, causing the year-to-date yoy decline to persist.
• Monthly import data is volatile, and a one-month sequential rebound does not necessarily indicate a sustained recovery.
• Export controls, license approvals, and geopolitical factors may affect imports of lithography and advanced process equipment.
• There is a timing gap between customs import data and revenue recognition by equipment makers, which may create short-term mismatches.
• ASP changes may mask true changes in equipment volumes, especially in high-ticket categories such as lithography.

What to watch

• Whether total China semiconductor equipment imports in subsequent months can remain above the past 12-month average.
• Whether the year-to-date yoy decline in front-end equipment narrows, especially in lithography, etching, and process control.
• Changes in import value, volume, and ASP of Dutch lithography machines to assess delivery timing of high-end lithography equipment.
• The degree of alignment between China sales disclosed by the five major semiconductor equipment suppliers and customs front-end import value.
• Whether management guidance on normalization of China sales from equipment suppliers is revised upward or downward.