Global newbuilding orders stabilized in June, while Chinese shipyards' share of new orders rose to 85%

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs' monthly global shipbuilding logbook, focusing on global newbuilding orders, orderbooks, shipbuilding prices, cost trends, and key shipyard order performance in June 2026. The core conclusion is that global newbuilding orders are showing signs of stabilization. Although LPG and LNGC orders slowed significantly amid rising uncertainty, improving demand for containerships, tankers, and bulkers, together with Chinese shipyards' advantages in major ship types and faster capacity expansion, lifted their share of new orders to 85%.

Core views

Goldman Sachs believes short-term divergence in the shipbuilding industry is pronounced: gas carrier orders are under pressure, while demand for tankers, bulkers, and small-to-medium-sized containerships is improving. Chinese shipyards continue to dominate new tanker and bulker orders. Hengli continues to win orders because of its shorter orderbook coverage and faster capacity expansion, which may create stronger competition for Yangzijiang. Over the medium to long term, replacement of older fleets, the transition toward environmentally friendly vessels, and the revival of Japan's shipbuilding industry continue to support names such as Namura, Mitsui E&S, and Tokyo Keiki.

Analysis framework

The report primarily compares order momentum and earnings attractiveness across ship types, regions, and key shipyards using metrics including Clarksons' newbuilding order volume, order value, orderbook, orderbook coverage, newbuilding price index, regional market share, and Dynamic ROI by ship type.

Methodology notes

• Monthly industry data trackingClarksons order and price indicators

  Track shipbuilding market conditions using newbuilding contract volumes, order value, orderbooks, and the newbuilding price index.

  The report assesses demand changes through CGT, order value, regional share, and ship-type breakdowns, and observes price trends using Clarksons' newbuilding price index.

• Capacity and order visibilityOrderbook coverage

  Use orderbook coverage relative to delivery capacity to measure shipyard capacity tightness and room for additional orders.

  Global orderbook coverage is 3.7x, Yangzijiang's is 3.4x, and Hengli's is 2.8x after factoring in Phase III capacity; shorter coverage supports Hengli's continued order wins.

• Ship-type profitability comparisonDynamic ROI by ship type

  Compare dynamic investment returns across ship types by combining TCE and newbuilding prices.

  As of July 3, 2026, Dynamic ROI was maintained at 31% for containerships, crude tanker profitability rose to 36%, bulkers were at 15%, and LNGCs at 12%.

• Valuation methodologyP/B, P/E and SOTP target-price framework

  Apply P/B versus ROE, P/E, or SOTP valuation according to the business characteristics of each covered company.

  Yangzijiang's target price is based on P/B versus ROE; Tokyo Keiki, Namura, and Guangdong Songfa use P/E or P/B methods; Mitsui E&S uses SOTP segment valuation.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YAZG.SI)

  A beneficiary among Chinese shipyards, while also facing competitive pressure from Hengli.

  Strengths

  Secured orders for four 1.9k TEU containerships and two LPG vessels in June, with momentum improving from April-May; orderbook coverage is 3.4x, below the global average, leaving room for further order wins.

  Weaknesses

  June new-order momentum remained 24% below the average for the first quarter of 2026; Hengli's capacity expansion and improved product mix may intensify competition.

  Comparison

  Compared with Hengli, Yangzijiang's orderbook coverage is closer to the global average, but its sensitivity to large incremental orders is weaker.

  Risks

  Higher-than-expected steel prices, stricter USTR regulation of Chinese-built vessels, a larger-than-expected decline in ASP, and faster-than-expected capacity expansion by other shipyards.

• Hengli

  A core beneficiary of improving new-order momentum at Chinese shipyards.

  Strengths

  Secured orders for 16 6k containerships in June, with new-order volume up 102% from the April-May average; orderbook was approximately 11.8mn CGT, up 131% year over year.

  Weaknesses

  Rapid capacity expansion creates execution risks related to delivery and capacity ramp-up, while industry supply competition may increase further if Phase IV capacity is eventually implemented.

  Comparison

  Compared with Yangzijiang, Hengli has shorter coverage: 2.8x after factoring in Phase III capacity, potentially below 2x after completion of Phase IV expansion.

  Risks

  Delayed capacity ramp-up, weaker-than-expected order conversion, declining ASP, rising steel prices, and intensifying industry competition.

• Namura Shipbuilding Co. (7014.T)

  A beneficiary of the revival of Japan's shipbuilding industry and older-fleet replacement.

  Strengths

  Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating, believing the company will benefit over the long term from replacement demand, the structural transition toward environmentally friendly vessels, and the revival of Japan's shipbuilding industry.

  Weaknesses

  Sensitive to the industry cycle, capacity expansion, and fluctuations in ship prices.

  Comparison

  Compared with Chinese shipyards, Japanese shipyards have lower market share but may benefit from domestic industry revival and competitiveness in specific ship types.

  Risks

  A sudden increase in industry capacity, rising steel prices, production problems, and falling ship prices.

• Mitsui E&S Co. (7003.T)

  A beneficiary of Japanese marine equipment and related businesses.

  Strengths

  Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating with a target price of ¥7,000; the company benefits over the long term from vessel renewal, the environmental transition, and the revival of Japan's shipbuilding industry.

  Weaknesses

  Segment valuation depends on earnings delivery across multiple business lines.

  Comparison

  Compared with pure-play shipyards, its valuation uses SOTP, resulting in more diversified business exposure.

  Risks

  Significantly higher input costs, deterioration in containership transportation demand, production problems, and price declines.

• Tokyo Keiki (7721.T)

  A high-share supplier of marine autopilots and gyrocompasses.

  Strengths

  Holds approximately 60% of the global market for marine autopilots and gyrocompasses; Goldman Sachs believes aftermarket services, newbuilding demand, and defense demand will support earnings growth.

  Weaknesses

  Demand remains affected by the shipbuilding cycle and shipping demand.

  Comparison

  Compared with shipyards, Tokyo Keiki is more exposed to marine equipment and aftermarket services.

  Risks

  Deterioration in defense demand, weaker shipping demand, and price declines caused by competition.

• Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co

  A China shipbuilding-related Buy-rated name covered by Goldman Sachs.

  Strengths

  12-month target price of Rmb200/share, based on 12x 2028E P/E.

  Weaknesses

  Sensitive to new-order wins, delivery pace, the renminbi/U.S. dollar exchange rate, and ASP.

  Comparison

  Valuation references the average level of Chinese and Korean shipyards.

  Risks

  Delayed deliveries or capacity ramp-up, higher-than-expected steel prices, fewer-than-expected new orders, lower-than-expected ASP, stronger-than-expected renminbi appreciation against the U.S. dollar, and faster-than-expected expansion by other shipyards.

Key data

• Global newbuilding orders5.3mn CGT, -9% month over month, +1% year over yearJune 2026 data; order volume stabilized but still declined month over month.
• Global newbuilding order valueApproximately US$15.3bn to US$15.5bn, -39% month over month, -9% year over yearApproximately 70% of the month-over-month decline came from reduced offshore engineering contracts; the remainder was mainly due to lower LPG and LNGC orders.
• China's share of new orders85%; 87% excluding LNGCsThe highest since August 2024; Korea's share including LNGCs fell to 9%, or 7% excluding LNGCs.
• Global orderbookApproximately 207mn CGT, with 3.7x coverageChina, Korea, and Japan accounted for approximately 66%, 18%, and 6% of the orderbook, respectively.
• Clarksons newbuilding price index185, +0.1% month over monthImproved for the third consecutive month; 2.4% below the September 2024 peak and 48% above the end-2020 level.
• Containership orders1.2mn CGT, -13% month over month, -35% year over yearAll new orders were for small-to-medium-sized vessels below 7k TEU, mainly driven by replacement demand.
• Tanker orders+5% month over month, +96% year over yearThere were 21 new VLCC orders in June, including 12 for CSSC, 5 for Hanwha Ocean, and 2 for Hengli.
• Bulker orders1.3mn CGT, +166% month over month, broadly flat year over yearThe most pronounced month-over-month improvement among major ship types.
• Hengli orderbookApproximately 11.8mn CGT, +5% month over month, +131% year over yearThe potential order for 20 20k TEU dual-fuel containerships from MSC has not yet been included; its estimated value is approximately US$4bn.
• Yangzijiang orderbookApproximately 8.4mn CGT, flat month over month, -3% year over yearOrderbook coverage is approximately 3.4x, slightly below the global average of 3.7x.

Impact & implications

The report is broadly positive on Chinese shipyards and selected Japanese shipbuilding-related names. Chinese shipyards' share advantage in tankers, bulkers, and small-to-medium-sized containerships has strengthened. Hengli shows greater order elasticity due to its shorter orderbook coverage and potential large MSC order, which also means that Yangzijiang faces more intense competition. Among Japanese names, Namura and Mitsui E&S benefit from older-fleet replacement, demand for environmentally friendly vessels, and the revival of Japan's shipbuilding industry. Tokyo Keiki may benefit from combined support from aftermarket services, newbuilding demand, and defense demand, given its high market share in autopilots and gyrocompasses.

Risks

• Slower negotiations for LPG and LNGC orders, with increased war and geopolitical uncertainty.
• Rapid capacity expansion by Chinese shipyards may intensify competition for established shipyards such as Yangzijiang.
• Higher-than-expected steel plate prices may compress shipyard margins.
• The USTR or other regulators may impose stricter measures on Chinese-built vessels.
• Ship prices or ASP may decline more than expected.
• Delays in new vessel deliveries or the release of additional capacity.
• Deterioration in shipping demand, containership transportation demand, or defense demand.
• Third-party maritime data from sources such as Clarksons involves estimation, subjective judgment, and limited audit verification risks; shipping forecasts are inherently cyclical and uncertain.

What to watch

• Whether Hengli's potential order for up to 20 20k TEU dual-fuel containerships from MSC is formally included in subsequent data.
• Progress on Hengli's Phase III and potential Phase IV capacity expansion, and whether orderbook coverage falls further below 2x.
• Changes in monthly new-order shares among Chinese, Korean, and Japanese shipyards, particularly excluding LNGCs.
• Whether the month-over-month improvement in tanker, bulker, and small-to-medium-sized containership orders continues.
• Whether negotiations for LPG and LNGC orders resume.
• Whether Clarksons' newbuilding price index continues to rise and how steel plate prices affect shipyard profits.
• The delivery schedule for VLCC orders, particularly the delivery window from the second half of 2028 through 2030.
• The impact of USTR-related regulation and the renminbi/U.S. dollar exchange rate on Chinese shipyard orders and margins.