China grid and UHV investment started strongly, with tender shares concentrating toward leading equipment suppliers

Overview

This report updates China’s first-quarter 2026 grid investment and tender situation. Both grid investment and power generation investment achieved high year-over-year growth at the beginning of the year. The bid amount for the first UHV equipment round in 2026 doubled year-over-year, and approval of the North China-Mongolian West line and start of construction of the Panxi-South Sichuan-Tianfu South line indicate strong project reserves during the 15th Five-Year period. At the same time, the first batch of SGCC transmission and transformation equipment tenders is down year-over-year, and demand strength still needs further confirmation through the remaining five rounds of tenders.

Core views

The core view is that total investment and the UHV pipeline are strong, while general transmission and transformation equipment tenders are relatively weak and competition is becoming more concentrated among top players. Strong progress in UHV projects strengthens medium-term equipment demand expectations. However, the 28% year-over-year decline in the first batch of transmission and transformation equipment tenders suggests short-term order momentum has not fully improved. On competitiveness, Siyuan Electric, Pinggao Electric, and China XD have increased shares in key categories, while NR Electric has a mixed performance across secondary equipment categories.

Analysis framework

The report mainly compares SGCC tender rounds, equipment-category amounts, and market-share changes between 2026-to-date and 2025 to assess changes in electricity equipment demand pace and competitive structure; it also evaluates the list of approved, under-construction, and pending-approval UHV lines to gauge the strength of the 15th Five-Year project pipeline.

Methodology notes

• Industry bidding trackingSGCC transmission and transformation equipment tender batch analysis

  Compare year-over-year changes by tender round and equipment category

  Use first-round tender value, growth rates for primary and secondary equipment, and subsequent rounds as monitoring points to assess the strength of equipment demand.

• Competition structure analysisEquipment category market share comparison

  Track supplier shares by category, including GIS, isolation switches, circuit breakers, transformers, relay protection, and other categories

  Identify share gainers and share losers by comparing share changes from 2026-to-date with 2025.

• Proprietary institutional frameworkGS Factor Profile

  Comparison of growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite percentile scores

  Goldman Sachs discloses its factor framework for comparing growth, return, and valuation attributes of a stock against the market and peers; the report body still focuses on grid investment, tendering, and market shares.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Siyuan Electric

  Transmission and transformation equipment supplier with improved shares in GIS and isolation switches

  Strengths

  It has a 30% GIS share ranked first and a 52% isolation switch share ranked first, indicating a strong competitive position.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not disclose its overall profitability, valuation, or order-conversion details.

  Comparison

  Among the equipment vendors covered, it has the most pronounced share advantage in the GIS and isolation switch categories mentioned in the report.

  Risks

  If future SGCC tenders fall short of expectations, share advantage may not fully translate into revenue growth.

• Pinggao Electric

  Transmission and transformation equipment supplier in breaker-related categories

  Strengths

  Breaker market share has risen to 24%.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not provide its share or financial performance for other categories.

  Comparison

  In the breaker category, it appears as a share improver.

  Risks

  General transmission and transformation equipment tenders in the first round are weak, so order timing remains uncertain.

• China XD

  Transmission and transformation equipment supplier including transformers

  Strengths

  Transformer market share increased from 8% in 2025 to 20% in 2026 to date.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not disclose performance in other equipment categories.

  Comparison

  It shows a clear share increase in the transformer category.

  Risks

  The pace of order realization may be affected by subsequent rounds of tenders and UHV project implementation.

• NR Electric

  Secondary equipment and systems integration supplier

  Strengths

  Relay protection share improved.

  Weaknesses

  Network systems integration and svc/statcom shares declined, resulting in mixed performance.

  Comparison

  Compared with some equipment vendors that generally improved shares in first-tier categories, NR Electric shows a more mixed outcome in the categories mentioned in the report.

  Risks

  If shares in weaker categories continue to decline, related business growth expectations could be pressured.

Key data

• 2026 Jan-Feb grid investment growth80% year-over-year growthIndicates a strong start to grid investment this year.
• 2026 Jan-Feb power generation investment growth32% year-over-year growthTogether with grid investment, it points to relatively strong power infrastructure investment.
• First batch of 2026 UHV equipment tendersabout RMB 4 billionDouble the first batch in 2025.
• SGCC first-batch transmission and transformation equipment tenders growth28% year-over-year declineGeneral transmission and transformation equipment tenders are relatively weak in the short term.
• Primary equipment tender growth30% year-over-year declineWeaker than secondary equipment.
• Secondary equipment tender growth3% year-over-year declineRelatively stronger than primary equipment.
• Siyuan Electric GIS market share30%, ranked firstThe report highlights it as a major share improver.
• Siyuan Electric isolation switch market share52%, ranked firstShows increased concentration at the top.
• Pinggao Electric circuit breaker market share24%Increase in breaker category share.
• China XD transformer market shareup from 8% in 2025 to 20% in 2026 to dateClear increase in transformer category share.

Impact & implications

From an investment perspective, strong grid investment and rapid UHV project implementation support confidence in medium-term equipment demand, especially in the UHV-related equipment chain. However, the decline in the first batch of transmission and transformation equipment tenders means short-term order validation is still insufficient, and the market needs to wait for the next five tender rounds to confirm whether demand is recovering. The increased shares of leading players could strengthen order resilience and earnings visibility for top suppliers.

Risks

• If the next five SGCC transmission and transformation equipment tenders remain weak, it could weaken the case for a recovery in equipment demand.
• If approval, construction start, or commissioning of UHV lines is delayed, it could affect the release pace of equipment orders.
• Higher awarded shares do not automatically translate into revenue and profit recognition; that still depends on winning prices, delivery pace, and margin levels.
• Performance differs across equipment categories, so a single company can be materially affected by product mix differences.
• The report contains general Goldman Sachs disclosures, and research views may change as new information emerges.

What to watch

• Tender amounts and year-over-year growth rates of the next five SGCC transmission and transformation equipment rounds.
• Approval, construction, and commissioning progress of UHV lines, especially projects such as North China-Mongolian West and Panxi-South Sichuan-Tianfu South.
• Category share changes for GIS, isolation switches, circuit breakers, transformers, relay protection, network systems integration, and svc/statcom.
• Order conversion and earnings performance of leading suppliers such as Siyuan Electric, Pinggao Electric, China XD, and NR Electric.
• The speed at which 15th Five-Year UHV project reserves convert into actual tenders and construction.