Goldman Sachs reviews key IR communication takeaways ahead of second-quarter results for Americas consumer staples: demand remains under pressure, but some stocks still have room for upward revisions

Overview

This report summarizes key takeaways from Goldman Sachs’ IR and management communications with multiple Americas consumer staples companies ahead of calendar second-quarter results. Covered companies include CCEP, CELH, CHD, CL, CLX, COCO, COTY, EL, ELF, KDP, KMB, KO, MNST, MO, PEP, PG, PM, PRMB, SAM and TAP. The core macro backdrop is continued pressure on U.S. consumers, volatility in oil and gas prices and input costs, foreign-exchange translation pressure from a stronger dollar, and companies’ attitudes toward full-year guidance.

Core views

Goldman Sachs believes consumer staples companies will likely remain cautiously optimistic in their second-quarter results and reiterate full-year guidance, although differentiation among stocks is significant. Energy drinks remain a relatively resilient category, with CELH and MNST benefiting from category growth, pricing opportunities and long-term margin expansion. CHD’s category trends are relatively solid, while M&A contributions and easing costs could support an upward revision. CCEP has strong fundamental momentum, with pricing management, buybacks and European weather potentially supporting results. By contrast, CLX, SAM and some other companies face downside risks as they enter initial FY27 guidance.

Analysis framework

The report combines IR feedback, management meeting commentary, recent scanner data, comparisons between company guidance and market consensus, input-cost and foreign-exchange scenario analysis, and valuation multiples and price-target frameworks to assess the risk/reward of each company’s second-quarter and full-year results.

Methodology notes

• Results previewIR communication takeaways and earnings call focus areas

  Extracting issues that may attract market attention on second-quarter earnings calls through IR or management communications.

  The report summarizes each company’s key points on demand, pricing, promotions, costs, foreign exchange, guidance and capital allocation, and assesses their impact on the second quarter, second half and FY27.

• Consumer data analysisScanner Data Backtesting

  Using retail scanner data to test the relationship between sales trends and companies’ reported revenue.

  The report uses scanner data through June 30 to backtest companies including KMB, PG, STZ and TAP, helping assess category growth, volume and pricing trends.

• Valuation methodsP/E and EV/EBITDA price-target methodology

  Deriving 12-month price targets from forward earnings estimates and valuation multiples.

  For example, the CCEP price target is based on equal weighting of 19.0x P/E and 12.0x EV/EBITDA; the CELH price target is based on 21.3x EV/EBITDA and 34.1x P/E; and the CHD price target is based on 18.7x EV/EBITDA and 26.5x P/E.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• CELH

  High-growth energy drinks name; Buy reiterated

  Strengths

  The energy drinks category remains strong, Alani Nu scanner data is approximately +45%, and long-term gross margin has room to improve through scale and supply-chain benefits.

  Weaknesses

  Celsius brand SKU optimization is weighing on scanner data in the short term, and second-quarter revenue estimates have been slightly lowered.

  Comparison

  Valuation is at a discount to beverage peers based on the report’s methodology; the market may be underestimating share gains and margin expansion.

  Risks

  Intensifying competition, U.S. and international execution risk, litigation and environmental regulation.

• CHD

  Relatively resilient household and personal care name; Buy reiterated

  Strengths

  Category growth is approximately +2%-3%, and the company continues to outperform; Miss Mouth’s Messy Eater, Therabreath, Hero and Touchland support growth.

  Weaknesses

  Promotional intensity is rising in cat litter and laundry, while the transmission of oil-price-related cost benefits is delayed.

  Comparison

  Compared with peers more exposed to consumer and cost volatility, CHD is more likely to narrowly raise or increase FY26 guidance.

  Risks

  Execution risk, input-cost inflation and slower-than-expected recovery in industry volumes.

• CCEP

  Beverage bottling and distribution name; Buy reiterated

  Strengths

  Healthy European demand, World Cup activities and weather could support volume, while buybacks support EPS.

  Weaknesses

  Foreign-exchange translation and second-half per-case cost pressure remain areas to monitor.

  Comparison

  The company’s FY26 revenue and operating profit growth guidance appears achievable and may even prove conservative.

  Risks

  Foreign-exchange pressure, weaker consumption, M&A integration, raw-material and transportation costs, and sustainability regulation.

• CL

  Oral care and pet businesses are resilient, but U.S. growth is slowing

  Strengths

  Hill’s pet business continues to outperform the category, while lower oil and gas prices could improve costs and logistics.

  Weaknesses

  U.S. category growth slowed in May, and promotions in oral care are increasing.

  Comparison

  Relative to CHD, CL’s cost improvement and recovery in U.S. demand depend more on time lags.

  Risks

  Consumer pressure, increased promotions and delayed pass-through of oil-price-related costs such as resin.

• CLX, SAM

  Names with elevated downside risk; Sell reiterated

  Strengths

  The report does not highlight any relative strengths.

  Weaknesses

  CLX and PG face the risk that initial FY27 guidance may fall below expectations; SAM is affected by cost and spending pressure as well as challenges at Twisted Tea and Truly.

  Comparison

  Risk/reward is weaker within the covered portfolio.

  Risks

  Disappointing guidance, weak brand performance, and cost and marketing investment pressure.

Key data

• Number of covered companies20The report lists CCEP, CELH, CHD, CL, CLX, COCO, COTY, EL, ELF, KDP, KMB, KO, MNST, MO, PEP, PG, PM, PRMB, SAM and TAP.
• Key Buy ratingsPM, MNST, EL, CELH, CHDGoldman Sachs reiterates Buy ratings on these stocks at the beginning of the report.
• Key Sell ratingsCLX, SAMGoldman Sachs reiterates Sell ratings on CLX and SAM and lowers its estimates and price target for SAM.
• CELH 2026 revenue growth estimate+29.7% / $3.263BSlightly below the previous estimate of $3.271B; FactSet consensus is $3.334B.
• CELH 2026 EPS estimate$1.66Above FactSet consensus of $1.63; FY27/FY28 EPS estimates are $2.07/$2.35.
• CHD 2026 EPS estimate$3.76Raised from $3.73; company guidance is $3.71-$3.81.
• CHD 2026 organic sales growth estimate+4.0%Compared with company guidance of +3%-4% and Visible Alpha consensus of +3.8%.
• CCEP 2026 EPS estimate€4.45Goldman Sachs believes the company will likely maintain FY26 guidance, but sees some upside potential.
• CCEP buyback planUp to €1BThe first tranche of up to €500M was completed on 2026-04-24, and the second tranche is expected to begin on 2026-07-06.
• Energy drinks category growth+8.4%CELH says the energy drinks category remains strong, with volume growth in the mid-to-high single digits.

Impact & implications

For investors, the key issue during second-quarter earnings season is not simply revenue growth, but whether companies can explain the margin impact of slowing consumption and delayed cost benefits despite lower oil prices, the foreign-exchange translation pressure from a stronger dollar, and whether they can still maintain or raise full-year guidance. The report favors companies with category resilience, pricing or M&A drivers, a path to margin improvement and capital-return support, while avoiding companies facing FY27 guidance risk, uncertain brand recoveries or costs that are difficult to absorb.

Risks

• Further dollar appreciation could make the foreign-exchange translation headwind larger than previously expected by companies.
• Although oil prices have declined, resin, transportation, hedging, contracts and inventories could delay cost improvement.
• U.S. consumers could continue to slow spending due to macroeconomic uncertainty and gasoline-price pressure.
• Rising promotional intensity could erode pricing and margins.
• Initial FY27 guidance below market expectations could trigger valuation downgrades.
• Competition could intensify across energy drinks, oral care, household care, beer and beauty categories.

What to watch

• Whether companies reiterate, raise or lower FY26 guidance on their second-quarter earnings calls.
• Updates on the impact of dollar movements and foreign-exchange translation on revenue, profit and EPS.
• Whether lower oil and gas prices genuinely flow through to resin, logistics, packaging and other input costs.
• Whether consumer trends improve after May in the United States, particularly across convenience, mass-market and club channels.
• Whether CELH scanner data improves in the second half after Celsius brand SKU optimization is completed.
• Whether CHD narrowly raises or increases FY26 guidance due to an improved cost environment and M&A contributions.
• Whether initial FY27 guidance from companies such as CLX and PG falls below market expectations.
• Whether brand challenges, cost pressure and expense pressure at SAM’s Twisted Tea and Truly ease.