China ESS shipments hit a high, and global storage demand continues to outperform expectations
AI summary card
China ESS shipments hit a high, and global storage demand continues to outperform expectations
Bernstein's June 2026 global ESS tracking shows that China's April ESS shipments reached 93.1GWh, up 92% year over year, with capacity utilization rising to 94%; Germany remained strong, the United States improved sequentially, and CATL remains the preferred name for exposure to the storage theme.
- China's April ESS shipments reached 93.1GWh, up 92% year over year and 14% month over month; year-to-date 2026 shipments totaled 309.1GWh, up 109% year over year.
- China's ESS capacity utilization reached 94%, above 69% in the same period last year, indicating tighter near-term supply-demand conditions than before.
- China's April ESS tendered battery volume was 55.6GWh, up 44% year over year; year-to-date 2026 tenders reached 224.6GWh, up 190% year over year, supporting the downstream demand pipeline.
- U.S. April ESS installations were 4.3GWh, down 18% year over year but up 71% month over month; Germany's April installations were 0.8GWh, up 74% year over year, driven by utility-scale storage.
- CATL's April ESS battery shipments were 19.8GWh, up 72% year over year, with a 22.5% year-to-date 2026 market share, maintaining its industry lead.
Report interpretation
Overview
This report is Bernstein's monthly global ESS tracker, focusing on comparing storage shipments, installations, capacity utilization, tenders, and major battery-maker shares across China, the United States, and Germany. The core conclusion is that global storage deployment continues to accelerate, with particularly strong demand in China supported by lower battery costs and a favorable policy environment, rapid volume growth in Germany's utility-scale storage, and clear sequential improvement in the United States despite weaker year-over-year performance.
Core views
The report maintains a more constructive view on the ESS theme. China is currently the strongest driver: April shipments, capacity utilization, and tenders are all at high levels, indicating demand growth is catching up with industry capacity. International markets are diverging: the United States remains down year to date in 2026 on a year-over-year basis, but rebounded clearly in April on a sequential basis; Germany posted strong installation growth year over year, driven by utility-scale storage. At the company level, CATL continues to lead in ESS battery shipments and capacity, with EVE, Hithium, BYD, and CALB as the main followers, while Ganfeng, Great Power, and CORNEX posted standout growth rates.
Analysis framework
The report uses a monthly data-tracking framework, breaking down China shipments and tenders, U.S. installations, and German installations by region, while comparing shipments, capacity, market share, and utilization across battery companies. It also benchmarks tracked data against global ESS demand forecasts for 2026 and 2030 to assess whether industry growth is exceeding model assumptions.
Methodology notes
Linking shipments, installations, capacity, utilization, and tender data
The report uses multi-source monthly data to track China ESS shipments and tenders, U.S. and German installations, and shipments and capacity of major battery makers, with the database lagging by about one month.
Use utilization to measure near-term supply-demand conditions, and tenders and awarded bids to measure future demand
China's ESS utilization rose to 94%, while tendered battery volume maintained strong growth. Based on this, the report concludes that demand is catching up with capacity and that the forward demand pipeline remains solid.
Compare actual tracked data with full-year and long-term forecasts
The report forecasts global ESS demand to grow 86% year over year to 1,023GWh in 2026 and reach 2,109GWh by 2030; current China data is growing faster than that forecast pace.
Asset mapping & comparison
Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).
- CATLLeading ESS battery player and the report's top pick
- Strengths
- April ESS battery shipments of 19.8GWh, +72% year over year; year-to-date 2026 market share of 22.5%; monthly capacity of about 20.8GWh, with 20.7% capacity share.
- Weaknesses
- The report does not provide the current share price or expected upside, and the H-share rating is only Market-Perform.
- Comparison
- Leads EVE, Hithium, BYD, and CALB in both shipments and capacity.
- Risks
- If ESS demand slows, price competition intensifies, or capacity additions outpace demand, earnings elasticity may lag shipment elasticity.
- EVEMajor China ESS battery supplier
- Strengths
- April ESS shipments of 8.5GWh, +70% year over year; year-to-date 2026 market share of about 9.6%.
- Weaknesses
- Marked as not covered by the report, with no explicit rating or target price.
- Comparison
- Ranks behind CATL in shipment scale and is close to Hithium.
- Risks
- Need to watch intensifying competition, customer mix, and changes in capacity utilization.
- HithiumMajor China ESS battery supplier
- Strengths
- April ESS shipments of 8.4GWh, +68% year over year; year-to-date 2026 market share of about 9.5%.
- Weaknesses
- Marked as not covered by the report, with limited public investment mapping.
- Comparison
- Shipment scale is close to EVE and above BYD and CALB.
- Risks
- If industry pricing declines or order conversion falls short of expectations, the profit contribution from scale growth may be uncertain.
- BYDOne of the covered companies and an ESS battery supplier
- Strengths
- April ESS shipments of 7.4GWh, +48% year over year; year-to-date 2026 market share of about 7.6%.
- Weaknesses
- ESS shipment growth is slower than EVE, Hithium, and CATL.
- Comparison
- Smaller in scale than CATL, EVE, and Hithium, but still in the top tier.
- Risks
- Need to watch resource allocation and margin changes between the storage business and other battery and vehicle businesses.
- CALBChina ESS battery supplier
- Strengths
- April ESS shipments of 6.1GWh, about +53% year over year; year-to-date 2026 market share of about 6.7%.
- Weaknesses
- Marked as not covered by the report, with no investment rating.
- Comparison
- Shipment scale is below CATL, EVE, Hithium, and BYD.
- Risks
- May face competitive pressure from the scale advantages of leading players and the rapid growth of new entrants.
- China ESS value chainCore driver of global ESS growth
- Strengths
- April shipments of 93.1GWh; year-to-date 2026 shipments of 309.1GWh; utilization at 94%; strong tender growth.
- Weaknesses
- Growth is highly dependent on policy, declining battery costs, and project delivery pace.
- Comparison
- Compared with the United States and Germany, China has a larger shipment scale and stronger supply-chain influence.
- Risks
- New capacity additions, tender-to-award conversion, price competition, and policy changes may affect the sustainability of industry strength.
- U.S. ESS marketOne of the overseas installation markets
- Strengths
- April installations of 4.3GWh, +71% month over month, showing short-term improvement.
- Weaknesses
- Year-to-date 2026 installations are down 11% year over year, and April is still down 18% year over year.
- Comparison
- Short-term momentum is weaker than China and Germany.
- Risks
- If the summer installation peak season does not materialize, validation of global demand may be dragged down.
- Germany ESS marketEuropean energy storage growth case
- Strengths
- April installations of 0.8GWh, +74% year over year; utility-scale storage +833% year over year.
- Weaknesses
- Growth is concentrated in utility-scale storage, while residential storage is only +9% year over year.
- Comparison
- Year-over-year growth is stronger than in the United States, though the market remains far smaller than China.
- Risks
- Grid connection, policy, project delivery, and base effects may cause monthly volatility.
Key data
- China April ESS shipments93.1GWh, +92% year over year, +14% month over monthDomestic shipments were 89.9GWh, +89% year over year; overseas shipments were 3.2GWh, +192% year over year.
- China year-to-date 2026 ESS shipments309.1GWh, +109% year over yearAbove the pace implied by the report's full-year assumption of +86% year-over-year growth in global ESS demand for 2026.
- China ESS capacity utilization94%Versus 69% in the same period last year, indicating tighter near-term supply-demand conditions.
- China April ESS tendered battery volume55.6GWh, +44% year over yearYear-to-date 2026 tender volume reached 224.6GWh, +190% year over year; April awarded volume was 23.5GWh, +2% year over year.
- U.S. April ESS installations4.3GWh, -18% year over year, +71% month over monthYear-to-date 2026 installations were 9.9GWh, -11% year over year, though the report expects momentum to continue improving in summer.
- Germany April ESS installations0.8GWh, +74% year over yearUtility-scale storage was 0.30GWh, +833% year over year; year-to-date 2026 was about 2.8-2.9GWh, +39% year over year.
- CATL April ESS battery shipments19.8GWh, +72% year over yearYear-to-date 2026 market share was 22.5%, and the report describes it as the best way to participate in the ESS theme.
- April shipments of major followersEVE 8.5GWh; Hithium 8.4GWh; BYD 7.4GWh; CALB 6.1GWhCorresponding year-to-date 2026 market shares were about 9.6%, 9.5%, 7.6%, and 6.7%, respectively.
- Global ESS demand forecast2026: 1,023GWh, +86% year over year; 2030: 2,109GWhThe report's long-term outlook implies about 20% compound growth through 2030.
Impact & implications
Strong storage demand growth continues to enhance the investment appeal of the battery value chain against a backdrop of slower EV growth. China's high shipments, high utilization, and high tender volumes reinforce near-term industry strength; Germany's utility-scale storage provides validation of overseas growth; and the United States still needs follow-up months to confirm whether sequential improvement can continue. For stock mapping, the report is most clearly positive on CATL as the core beneficiary of the ESS theme.
Risks
- U.S. ESS installations are still down 11% year over year year to date in 2026; if sequential improvement in coming months does not continue, it will weaken validation of overseas demand.
- China's high shipments and high utilization improve supply-demand conditions, but if new capacity continues to come on quickly or tender conversion is slow, prices and margins may come under pressure.
- Germany's growth is mainly driven by utility-scale storage; changes in policy, grid interconnection, and project delivery timing may create volatility.
- The report discloses that Bernstein or its affiliates have non-investment-banking compensation relationships or potential investment-banking business relationships with some battery companies, so investment conclusions should be used alongside conflict-of-interest disclosures.
What to watch
- Whether China's monthly ESS shipments can remain at high levels, and whether the mix between domestic and overseas shipments continues to improve.
- The conversion pace of China's ESS tenders into awarded volumes, especially demand from standalone storage, shared storage, and renewable-plus-storage projects.
- Changes in market share among major battery makers, with focus on CATL, EVE, Hithium, BYD, CALB, Ganfeng, Great Power, and CORNEX.
- Whether U.S. summer ESS installations continue the sequential improvement seen in April.
- Whether Germany's utility-scale storage projects continue to ramp, and whether residential storage can return to growth.
- Whether global ESS demand in 2026 continues to outperform the forecast assumption of 1,023GWh, up 86% year over year.