May Day Consumption Moderate with Structural Divergence, Experience Economy Leads Physical Consumption

Overview

This is a summary of Goldman Sachs' channel research and data tracking on Chinese consumers during the 2026 Labor Day holiday (May 1-5). The core conclusion is: overall holiday consumer demand was moderate, slightly below institutional expectations, continuing the trend of 'service outperforming physical goods' structural divergence. Although official retail sales data was not published, multi-channel verification indicates that under the influence of rational consumption, rising air ticket prices, adverse southern weather, and分流 from Qingming/Spring Break holidays, the growth rate of travel and physical goods consumption generally slowed compared to the Spring Festival; while experiential consumption (performances, events), catering, and jewelry categories showed strong resilience or performance exceeding expectations. Based on this, the report reinforces the judgment that consumption recovery will lean towards 'back-end loading' (i.e., gradual improvement from late 2026 to 2027).

Core views

Travel traffic growth rate significantly slowed, structural factors constrain short-term heat. Traffic Ministry data shows cross-regional personnel flow during May Day grew 3.5% yoy to 1.52 billion person-trips, slightly below the prior 4% guidance, and far lower than the 8.2% growth rate of the Spring Festival. Among them, air passenger traffic decreased 5% yoy due to soaring fares pushed by Middle East conflicts, with some demand shifting to rail (+5%), road passenger transport (+7%), and self-driving (+4%). In terms of outbound travel, inbound/outbound traffic grew 3.5% yoy, also falling sharply from the 10.1% growth rate of the Spring Festival, mainly dragged down by the 4% decline in air passenger traffic. The report points out that aside from fares, rainy weather in many southern areas and the effect of holiday staggered timing caused by some provinces combining May Day with Spring Break are also important factors suppressing concentrated travel. Experiential consumption became the absolute highlight, generating spillover effects on local cultural tourism. Despite flat box office performance (total box office 758 million yuan, only 1.4% increase yoy, average ticket price down 8%), offline performances and sports events were exceptionally hot. WeChat data shows transaction volume for performances and sports events skyrocketed 153% qoq compared to April; Trip.com data shows participation in exhibitions, performances, and sports events during the holiday increased 30.6% yoy. Nationwide organized approximately 13,700 cultural and tourism consumption activities. Football leagues in Jiangsu, Guangdong, and various concerts effectively drove comprehensive consumption including food, accommodation, transportation, travel, shopping, and entertainment locally. Significant internal divergence in physical goods, catering and jewelry steady, baijiu and apparel face pressure. Service consumption continues to outperform physical consumption. Catering maintains a healthy trend, restaurant sales in Beijing, Sichuan, Chongqing, and Hangzhou grew 4.6%, 4.5%, 6.7% and 14.6% yoy respectively; Haidilao served over 5 million people nationwide in the first three days, table turnover rate maintained at high level; Tai Er Szechuan Fish Sour Soup still achieved mid-to-high single digit yoy growth against rainy backdrop in south, new store types contributed significant incremental volume. Jewelry category exceeded expectations, channel research shows Chow Tai Fook same-store sales for May 1-4 recorded high teens growth, Henan province jewelry retail value increased 27.1% yoy, far exceeding the national 12.6% growth rate of Q1. In contrast, demand for sportswear slowed after entering May Day in April compared to Q1, affected by spring wear being advanced exhausted, intensified promotion competition, and weather; baijiu movement sales remain persistently weak, banquet reservation volume, table count, and per-table consumption in key provinces like Henan, Shandong, Anhui all showed downgrade, although base low and brands increased promotions, inventory clearance pressure remains significant; freshly brewed tea beverages hit by triple blows of high base, weather, and limited passenger flow growth, ChaPanda and Gumy both feedback same-store sales declined yoy during May Day. Channel and duty-free data confirm moderate tone. Commerce Ministry data shows May 1-4, 78 key monitored business district footfall and sales grew 5.0% and 5.3% yoy respectively, slowing slightly compared to Spring Festival 6.7%/7.5% growth rates. Hainan off-island duty-free sales and footflow grew 10% and 7% respectively, also significantly slower than the 15%/20% performance during Spring Festival. These high-frequency data points together point to one fact: consumers did not show a revenge spending rebound during May Day, but presented consumption characteristics more rational, focusing on price-performance ratio and emotional value.

Analysis framework

This report adopts typical 'Pulse Check' methodology, i.e., in key holiday windows, using high-frequency alternative data and frontline channel research to cross-verify macro consumption trends. Its analysis logic does not rely on a single official statistic, but constructs a multi-dimensional verification framework: first anchor travel large numbers with traffic data from authoritative departments like Transport Ministry, Immigration Bureau; second use digital footprints like WeChat Pay, OTA platforms to capture real activity of segmented formats (such as performances, events); third combine sales and footfall data from physical channels like key business districts, duty-free stores to calibrate strength of physical goods consumption; finally conduct micro-feeling confirmation through listed company operating data (like Haidilao, Tai Er, ChaPanda) and distributor feedback (baijiu, sportswear). This 'Macro Traffic - Meso Channel - Micro Enterprise' three-layer verification method can effectively eliminate noise from single data sources, precisely depict structural differences in consumption recovery, especially suitable for observation environment currently lacking unified high-frequency retail sales data.

Methodology notes

• Industry/Industrial Analysis FrameworkSupply and Demand Framework

  Multi-dimensional cross-validation in holiday consumption pulse checks

  The report does not rely on single retail sales data, but verifies through multi-source high-frequency data such as traffic flow, payment transactions, business district footfall, and enterprise operations to identify real demand intensity and structural changes. This method helps readers understand how to piece together a complete consumption picture through proxy indicators when official data is missing.

• Cycle and Prosperity FrameworkProsperity Turning Point Analysis

  Judgment on back-end loading of consumption recovery

  Based on leading indicators such as Baijiu inventory clearance progress and banquet demand recovery rhythm during May Day holiday, the report infers that comprehensive consumption warming may extend to late 2026 or 2027. This reflects an analytical thinking approach using degree of match between channel inventory and terminal movement to predict industry prosperity turning points.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Haidilao

  Beneficiary Targets: Catering demand healthy, high turnover rate

  Strengths

  Served over 5 million people across 1300+ stores nationwide in first three days of May Day, table turnover rate maintained at high level in multiple regions, reflecting strong brand appeal and operational efficiency

  Comparison

  Standout performance in catering sector, superior to freshly brewed tea beverages affected by weather and base

• Tai Er Szechuan Fish Sour Soup

  Beneficiary Targets:逆势增长，new store format driven

  Strengths

  Achieved mid-to-high single digit yoy growth during May Day, new format stores contributed double-digit growth, old format stores also saw slight increase

  Comparison

  Still achieved growth under unfavorable conditions of southern rain, performance superior to industry average

• Chow Tai Fook

  Beneficiary Targets: Jewelry consumption exceeded expectations

  Strengths

  Same-store sales recorded high teens growth during May Day, significantly higher than market expectations and Q1 industry growth rate

  Comparison

  Most outstanding performance among physical consumer goods, forming sharp contrast with Baijiu and sportswear

• ChaPanda

  Affected Targets: Freshly brewed tea beverages face pressure

  Weaknesses

  Same-store sales declined modestly yoy during May Day, affected by high base, unfavorable weather, and overall consumption backdrop weaker than expected

  Comparison

  Performance weaker than broader catering sector, alongside Gumy reflecting short-term dilemma of fresh drink track

  Risks

  High base pressure, strong weather sensitivity, homogenized competition

• Gumy

  Affected Targets: Freshly brewed tea beverages face pressure

  Weaknesses

  Same-store sales trend during May Day weaker than April performance, reflecting insufficient holiday consumption momentum

  Comparison

  Similar to ChaPanda, constrained by common industry challenges

  Risks

  Weak same-store growth, weakened holiday elasticity

Key data

• Cross-regional Personnel Flow Growth Rate+3.5% yoyMay Day holiday reached 1.52 billion person-trips, significantly slower than Spring Festival +8.2%, slightly below 4% guidance
• Outbound Travel Traffic Growth Rate+3.5% yoySharply fell from Spring Festival +10.1%, air passenger traffic down 4% yoy
• Performance/Event Transaction Volume qoq Increase+153%WeChat data, compared to April normal day level, showing explosion of experience consumption
• Key Business District Footfall/Sales Growth Rate+5.0% / +5.3% yoyMay 1-4 78 business district data, slight fall compared to Spring Festival 6.7%/7.5%
• Hainan Duty-Free Sales/Footflow Growth Rate+10% / +7% yoySignificantly slower than Spring Festival +15%/+20%
• Chow Tai Fook May Day SSSGHigh Teens %May 1-4 channel research data, significantly exceeding expectations
• Henan Province Jewelry Retail Growth Rate+27.1% yoyFar exceeds Q1 National Jewelry Retail +12.6% growth rate
• Haidilao First Three Days May Day Reception Count>5 Million PeopleCovering 1300+ stores, table turnover rate maintained at high level
• Movie Box Office Total Revenue758 Million Yuanyoy +1.4%, audience count +10.2%, average ticket price -8%

Impact & implications

The report believes that the moderate performance of the May Day holiday further reinforces its judgment on the path of consumption recovery: that recovery will be progressive and structurally divergent, rather than a V-shaped rebound. For investment, this means continuing to focus on experiential consumption tracks possessing 'emotional value' and 'social attributes' (such as performances, specialty catering), as well as jewelry categories benefiting from safe-haven or value-preserving demands;而对于依赖商务宴请、传统礼赠场景的白酒，以及受季节性与竞争挤压的运动服饰，短期内仍需等待库存消化与需求端实质性改善的信号。此外，机票价格波动与天气等外部扰动因素对出行消费的敏感性提升，提示后续跟踪需更多关注非价格驱动的体验类项目。整体来看，消费板块的配置逻辑正从“总量修复”转向“结构优选”。 -> Translation: For investment, this means continuing to focus on experiential consumption tracks possessing 'emotional value' and 'social attributes' (such as performances, specialty catering), as well as jewelry categories benefiting from safe-haven or value-preserving demands; whereas for Baijiu relying on business banquets and traditional gift-giving scenarios, and sportswear squeezed by seasonality and competition, waiting for signals of inventory digestion and substantive improvement on the demand side is still needed in the short term. Furthermore, rising sensitivity of travel consumption to external disturbance factors such as fluctuating air ticket prices and weather suggests subsequent tracking should focus more on non-price driven experience items. Overall, the configuration logic of the consumption sector is shifting from 'total volume repair' to 'structural preference'.

Risks

• Persistently high airline ticket prices suppress air travel demand
• Frequent extreme weather interferes with offline consumption scenarios
• Baijiu banquet demand recovery fails to meet expectations, inventory clearance slow
• Intensified sportswear competition leads to promotions eroding profits
• Sustainability of growth doubtful under high base for freshly brewed tea beverages

What to watch

• Progress of Baijiu channel inventory digestion and banquet booking recovery in the second half of 2026
• Whether heat of experiential consumption (performances, events) can continue into summer and National Day
• Promotion strategies and terminal discount rate changes for sportswear brands in off-season
• Sustainability of jewelry category after high growth, especially pace of wedding demand release
• Impact of airline ticket price trends on travel willingness in the second half of year