Helium supply is disrupted, but short-term impact on semiconductors and medical imaging is expected to be limited

Overview

This report discusses the impact of helium supply disruptions on the chemicals, industrial gases, semiconductor, and medical imaging value chains. The core backdrop is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the near shutdown of Qatar LNG assets, which has taken about 30% of global helium supply offline. UBS believes that although the helium supply chain is concentrated and short-term prices and availability are under pressure, semiconductor companies typically have 2 to 6 months of inventory, leading firms have strong balance sheets and strategic priority, and MRI manufacturers benefit from low-loss modern equipment and the trend toward low-helium systems, so the near-term material impact may be limited.

Core views

First, the helium market has shifted from oversupply to shortage, with the supply chain concentrated in North America, the Middle East, Eurasia, and a small number of industrial gas companies, leaving limited resilience. Second, semiconductor manufacturing depends on helium across multiple steps; alternatives exist, but they introduce process complexity, yield risk, or production-timing risk, and key cooling applications remain difficult to replace entirely. Third, if the Middle East conflict lasts less than two months, inventories and supply-chain priority could keep the impact on the semiconductor industry relatively small. Fourth, liquid helium demand in MRI systems is important but does not mean frequent consumption; modern scanners usually keep helium for years, and Philips, Siemens Healthineers, and others are promoting low-helium or helium-free equipment, reducing operating disruption for manufacturers. Fifth, industrial gas companies such as Linde that have diversified supply and storage assets are relatively more resilient.

Analysis framework

The report combines value-chain mapping, regional supply breakdown, company exposure comparisons, end-use analysis, and alternative-technology assessment to evaluate the effects of helium supply disruption on industrial gases, semiconductor manufacturing, medical imaging equipment, and major suppliers.

Methodology notes

• Industry supply-demand analysisRegional capacity and supply concentration analysis

  Break down global helium capacity by region and supplier to assess the systemic impact of supply disruption.

  The report compares the regional supply structure in 2025 and 2030, and highlights changes in supply shares across North America, the Middle East, Eurasia, and Africa, as well as key participants such as QatarEnergy, Gazprom, ExxonMobil, Sonatrach, Air Products, Air Liquide, Linde, and Messer.

• Value-chain risk analysisInventory coverage and substitution elasticity assessment

  Use months of inventory, substitution feasibility, and process-switching difficulty to judge short-term operating impact.

  The report argues that semiconductor companies typically hold 2 to 6 months of inventory; nitrogen, argon, hydrogen, and forming gas can substitute for helium in some steps, but wafer cooling and cryogenic applications are still difficult to replace.

• Company exposure analysisRevenue exposure and technology transition assessment

  Assess the degree of impact on manufacturers by the share of related business revenue and the penetration of low-helium technologies.

  The report notes that MRI accounts for an important share of medical imaging markets, and that Siemens Healthineers, Philips, and GE Healthcare all have exposure, but the low replenishment needs of modern MR systems and upgrades to low-helium devices reduce the shock from supply shortages.

• Valuation methodDCF, forward P/E, EV/EBITDA, and SOTP

  UBS combines cash flow, relative valuation, and sum-of-the-parts methods in related stock valuations.

  The report discloses that target prices are mainly based on DCF, forward P/E, or EV/EBITDA multiples, and where appropriate use SOTP, while also considering organic growth, profitability, ROIC, and cash conversion.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Linde

  Industrial gas and helium supplier

  Strengths

  Diversified supply sources, Qatar purchases below the market average, Texas storage caverns, more contracted sales than spot sales, and a focus on 3- to 5-year long-term volumes.

  Weaknesses

  Helium and rare gases are still tied to global supply-chain disruptions, and prolonged conflict could create customer fulfillment and logistics pressure.

  Comparison

  Compared with Air Products, UBS estimates helium and rare gas sales at 2% to 3% of total sales, implying lower exposure.

  Risks

  Persistent global helium shortages, spot price volatility, slower-than-expected LNG production recovery, and storage drawdown exceeding expectations.

• Air Products

  Industrial gas and helium supplier

  Strengths

  One of the world’s major industrial gas companies, involved in helium production, refining, liquefaction, and logistics.

  Weaknesses

  The report estimates helium and rare gas sales at 7% to 8%, implying higher exposure than Linde.

  Comparison

  Higher related sales exposure than Linde, so it may be more sensitive to helium price and supply disruptions.

  Risks

  Middle East supply interruptions, customer delivery pressure, price volatility, and low supply-chain transparency.

• Air Liquide

  Industrial gas and helium supply-chain company

  Strengths

  As one of the world’s major industrial gas companies, it has refining, liquefaction, and logistics capabilities.

  Weaknesses

  It sits within a concentrated and opaque helium supply chain and is affected by global supply shocks.

  Comparison

  Together with Air Products, Linde, and Messer, it forms the dominant group of industrial gas suppliers.

  Risks

  Regional supply disruptions, long-term contract fulfillment pressure, and rising helium procurement costs.

• Messer

  Industrial gas company and storage asset holder

  Strengths

  Acquired related U.S. Federal Helium Reserve assets tied to Cliffside Field in 2024, giving its storage resources strategic value.

  Weaknesses

  The value of storage assets depends on how tight supply becomes and on dispatch capability.

  Comparison

  It has a prominent position in storage, but its overall global network still needs to be compared with the larger industrial gas companies.

  Risks

  Reserve drawdown, regulatory and operating constraints, and market price volatility.

• Semiconductor companies

  Key downstream users of helium

  Strengths

  Leading companies have strong balance sheets and high strategic importance, which may secure supply-chain priority; some steps already use nitrogen, argon, or recycling systems to reduce consumption.

  Weaknesses

  Wafer backside cooling, EUV-related cryogenic cooling, and some high-vacuum applications are difficult to replace with helium substitutes.

  Comparison

  Compared with MRI manufacturers, semiconductor processes face greater complexity in switching away from helium; compared with industrial gas companies, semiconductor firms are demand-side users rather than suppliers.

  Risks

  Inventory depletion, delays from process re-tuning, lower yields, and constrained capacity at critical equipment.

• MRI manufacturers

  Users of liquid-helium medical imaging equipment

  Strengths

  Modern MRI systems retain helium for years and usually do not require replenishment during routine service; the share of low-helium or helium-free devices is rising.

  Weaknesses

  A small number of quenching events can still require replenishment of liquid helium, and traditional systems still depend on helium.

  Comparison

  Compared with semiconductor manufacturing, MRI manufacturers face more limited short-term impact from supply disruptions; Philips and Siemens Healthineers have made more visible progress in low-helium systems.

  Risks

  If the conflict becomes prolonged, installation and service costs may rise, pricing clauses passed through to customers could delay demand, and maintenance pressure on legacy systems may increase.

• QatarEnergy

  Upstream helium producer

  Strengths

  Ras Laffan expansion could make it the largest helium supplier by 2030, with an expected 28.9% share of global capacity.

  Weaknesses

  The current shutdown of Qatar LNG assets shows its supply is sensitive to geopolitical and shipping risks.

  Comparison

  It belongs to the group of major upstream producers alongside Gazprom, ExxonMobil, Sonatrach, and PGNiG.

  Risks

  Closure of the Strait of Hormuz, shutdown of LNG assets, and uncertainty around expansion timelines.

Key data

• Global offline helium supply ratioApproximately 30%Estimated impact from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the near shutdown of Qatar LNG assets.
• Semiconductor industry inventory coverage2 to 6 monthsBased on communications with industry specialists, company representatives, and media sources, varying by company and end market.
• North America 2025 helium capacity share47%The largest regional source of supply in 2025, with the United States alone accounting for more than 42% of global supply.
• Middle East 2025 helium capacity share31% to 34%The text mentions 34%, while the chart shows 31%; mainly affected by assets such as Qatar Ras Laffan.
• North America 2030 forecast helium capacity share42%North America’s share is expected to decline as new capacity comes on stream in other regions.
• Middle East 2030 forecast helium capacity share34%Driven by the expansion of Qatar Ras Laffan 4 and 5.
• Combined 2025 capacity controlled by major industrial gas companiesMore than 67%Air Products, Air Liquide, Linde, and Messer together control a significant share of global helium production capacity.
• Estimated share of Linde helium and rare gases sales2% to 3%UBS estimates this is a relatively low share of total sales.
• Estimated share of Air Products helium and rare gases sales7% to 8%The report considers its related exposure higher than Linde’s.
• Share of MRI in image revenue at major imaging manufacturers20% to 40%Liquid helium is important for MRI operation, but routine servicing of modern equipment usually does not require replenishment.
• Philips low-helium MR technology milestoneLaunched its first helium-free MR in 2018The industry has since migrated toward lower-helium-consumption devices.
• Share of low-helium new MR deliveries at Siemens HealthineersNearly 50%The company says nearly 50% of its current new MR deliveries include helium-free magnets.
• Philips 1.5T MR ordersCurrent orders are all helium-freeThe 1.5T model is the more important MR type in Philips’ sales mix.
• Difference between conventional scanners and low-helium devicesLow-helium devices use about 7 liters, less than 0.5% of a conventional scannerThe report says this significantly reduces exposure to future supply shortages.
• Helium recovery rate of advanced recycling systems80% to 90%Used for helium recovery and reuse in leading wafer fabs.
• MRI share of global helium uses14%The chart and text show that MRI is one of the largest single uses.
• Semiconductor share of global helium uses19%The chart shows semiconductors as an important downstream application.

Impact & implications

For investors, the short-term helium supply disruption looks more like a test of supply-chain resilience than a direct blow to semiconductor or medical imaging demand. In industrial gases, companies with diversified supply, long-term customers, and storage assets are better positioned to stabilize supply and manage volatility; semiconductor firms can reduce the shock through inventories, supply-chain priority, substitute gases, and recycling systems, but critical cooling steps remain a bottleneck; and medical imaging manufacturers are expected to see limited operating impact because low-helium devices are penetrating the market and routine helium replenishment is infrequent. If the conflict lasts beyond the inventory coverage window, the risk will shift from price volatility to actual production and delivery constraints.

Risks

• If the Middle East conflict lasts more than two months, it could exhaust the 2- to 6-month inventory buffer at semiconductor companies and cause more visible supply interruptions.
• The helium supply chain is highly concentrated, with a few industrial gas companies and upstream producers controlling key capacity, low price transparency, and high vulnerability to shocks.
• Helium replacement is difficult in critical semiconductor cooling applications, and nitrogen, argon, and hydrogen all face limits related to thermal conductivity, safety, reactivity, or process yield.
• Although routine helium replenishment needs for MRI systems are low, rare failures such as quenching can still cause substantial liquid helium loss and raise service costs.
• New capacity additions and regional diversification before 2030 depend on projects in Qatar, Russia, Africa, and elsewhere, and face geopolitical, construction, and operating uncertainties.

What to watch

• Whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens and the pace at which Qatar LNG and helium assets recover.
• The rate at which semiconductor inventories are drawn down from the 2- to 6-month range, and whether delivery delays or production-line scheduling changes emerge.
• Updates from Linde, Air Products, Air Liquide, and Messer on helium pricing, contract fulfillment, storage drawdown, and customer prioritization.
• Progress on new supply before 2030, including Qatar Ras Laffan 4 and 5, Gazprom expansion, and projects in South Africa and Tanzania.
• The real-world adoption speed of semiconductor helium recovery systems, forming-gas leak detection, nitrogen/argon substitution, and new helium-free cooling technologies.
• Order mix at Siemens Healthineers, Philips, and GE Healthcare, low-helium device penetration, and helium price pass-through clauses in service contracts.