Macau Gaming: Soccer tournament disruptions are causing a short-term slowdown in premium mass, but Citi remains positive on post-tournament recovery
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Macau Gaming: Soccer tournament disruptions are causing a short-term slowdown in premium mass, but Citi remains positive on post-tournament recovery
Citi's June Macau table survey shows premium mass wagering fell to a post-pandemic low, but it believes this was mainly due to the World Cup and a high base from last year's concerts, and recommends using short-term share price weakness to build positions in Galaxy and Sands China.
- Observed premium mass wager in June was HK$9.8m, down 38% year over year and at a post-pandemic low; premium mass player count was 448, down 29% year over year.
- Average wager per player declined 13% year over year to HK$21,775, but remained at a level Citi considers acceptable.
- Citi observed 24 high-value players, down from 35 in the same period last year; the month's biggest player placed a HK$680k wager per hand at the City of Dreams Signature Club.
- Galaxy maintained the top spot with a 25% share of observed wager, MLCO's share rose to 21% and it was the most improved operator, while Sands China was also at 21%.
- Average minimum bet for Macau mass baccarat fell 8% year over year to HK$1,905; the Macau gaming sector is trading at about 7.1x next-twelve-month consensus EBITDA, nearly two standard deviations below the historical average of about 11.4x.
Report interpretation
Overview
This report is Citi's June 2026 on-the-ground table survey of the Macau gaming industry, focusing on premium mass and mass baccarat minimum bets. The survey found that major June metrics broadly declined year over year: observed premium mass wager fell to HK$9.8m, player count dropped to 448, and table utilization was below the historical average. Citi believes the weakness mainly stemmed from the ongoing World Cup diverting gaming attention, as well as a high base from Galaxy's Jacky Cheung concerts in the same period last year, rather than any structural deterioration in high-end players' liquidity or willingness to spend.
Core views
Citi's core judgment is that the June weakness represents a temporary premium mass slowdown, with the potential for a rapid recovery after the soccer tournament ends. Although the number of observed high-value players declined, the month's top player wagering HK$680k and multiple players holding large amounts of cash chips indicate that premium customers can still bring funds into Macau and are willing to spend. At the operator level, Galaxy continues to lead in premium mass, MLCO showed the most visible improvement, and Sands China gained share and was listed as a top pick; Wynn's share and average wager fell sharply, while SJM remained at a low-share position.
Analysis framework
The report evaluates Macau gaming demand through two types of field surveys: first, it covers 19 major premium mass rooms, counting the number of chip stacks at each table to estimate player numbers and observing the amount of chips on the table per hand; second, it covers the mass and premium mass areas of 15 major casinos, recording open baccarat tables, closed baccarat tables, and minimum bets. The analysis compares June 2026 data year over year with June 2025, and explains the results in conjunction with similarly low minimum bets during Euro 2024, the high base from last year's Jacky Cheung concerts, and changes in operator share.
Methodology notes
Premium mass table field survey
Citi surveyed 19 major premium mass rooms in Macau, covering only accessible areas; it estimated player counts by counting chip stacks on tables, and measured observed wager, player numbers, average wager, and operator share by recording chip amounts per hand at each table.
Mass baccarat minimum bet survey
Citi surveyed the mass and premium mass areas of 15 major casinos in Macau, counting open and closed baccarat tables and recording the minimum bet at open tables; other table games were excluded because baccarat accounts for nearly 90% of Macau mass-table GGR.
Next-twelve-month EBITDA multiple valuation comparison
The report compares the Macau gaming sector's next-twelve-month consensus EBITDA multiple with the historical average, noting that the current level is about 7.1x, nearly two standard deviations below the historical average of about 11.4x, to support the view that sector valuations are at a low level.
Asset mapping & comparison
Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).
- GalaxyOne of Citi's top picks; ranked first in premium mass observed wager share
- Strengths
- Its 25% share remained No. 1 in the industry, and average wager rose to HK$20,364; multiple high-value players were observed at Galaxy Macau and Pavilion North.
- Weaknesses
- Player count fell from 202 in June 2025 to 118; mass baccarat minimum bet declined 15% year over year.
- Comparison
- Compared with the industry's sharp drop in wager, Galaxy's share remained stable, showing relatively strong defensiveness.
- Risks
- If World Cup-related disruption lasts longer or does not reverse after the tournament, short-term traffic and wager may remain under pressure.
- Sands ChinaOne of Citi's top picks; premium mass share increased
- Strengths
- Premium mass share rose from 13% to 21%, with relatively stable player count; it was the only operator whose average mass baccarat minimum bet was higher than in June 2025.
- Weaknesses
- Average wager of HK$14,110 was still below some higher-end peers; Plaza's average minimum bet fell 20% year over year.
- Comparison
- Compared with most operators whose minimum bets fell, Sands' overall minimum bet rose 8% year over year, indicating pricing resilience.
- Risks
- Short-term weakness in overall Macau mass demand will still affect revenue performance.
- MLCOThe operator showing the most visible improvement in this survey
- Strengths
- Premium mass observed wager share rose to 21%, and average wager of HK$36,316 was the highest among the six operators; the month's top HK$680k player came from City of Dreams Signature Club.
- Weaknesses
- Player count fell from 76 to 57; average mass baccarat minimum bet declined 10% year over year.
- Comparison
- It saw the largest share improvement, but relied more on contributions from a small number of high-value players.
- Risks
- If high-value players fluctuate in a given month, share and average wager may fall back.
- MGM ChinaPremium mass share increased but minimum bets faced slight pressure
- Strengths
- Premium mass share rose from 13% to 19%, and average wager increased to HK$26,449; multiple HK$100k to HK$200k players were observed.
- Weaknesses
- Player count fell from 90 to 69; average minimum bet declined 2% year over year.
- Comparison
- Performance was better than Wynn and SJM, but it was not listed as a Citi top pick.
- Risks
- The decline in premium mass player count may limit sustained growth.
- Wynn MacauA major operator that performed weakly in this survey
- Strengths
- Multiple high-value players in the HK$100k to HK$200k range were still observed.
- Weaknesses
- Premium mass share fell from 35% to 13%, average wager dropped from HK$61,363 to HK$29,341, and Wynn Palace premium mass average wager declined 61% year over year.
- Comparison
- Compared with Galaxy, Sands China, and MLCO, Wynn showed the most pronounced share decline.
- Risks
- If the share decline is not just a one-month disruption, it may reflect weakening competitiveness in premium mass.
- SJMThe lowest-share operator
- Strengths
- It still retains property coverage on the Macau Peninsula.
- Weaknesses
- Premium mass share was only 1.2%, average wager was HK$8,000, and average mass baccarat minimum bet fell 15% year over year.
- Comparison
- It ranked last among the six operators, clearly lagging the others.
- Risks
- Low share and low minimum bets may continue to weigh on operating leverage.
Key data
- Observed premium mass wagerHK$9.8mDown 38% year over year in June 2026, at a post-pandemic low, close to HK$10.0m during Euro 2024.
- Premium mass player count448Down 29% year over year in June 2026.
- Average wager per playerHK$21,775Down 13% year over year; June 2025 was HK$25,130.
- Number of high-value players24Below 35 in June 2025; the month's biggest player wagered HK$680k per hand.
- Premium mass table utilization39%287 tables had active players out of 739 open tables; below the historical average of about 43% and 45% in June 2025.
- Galaxy premium mass share25%Ranked first by observed wager, unchanged from 25% in June 2025.
- MLCO premium mass share21%Above 11% in June 2025, making it the most improved operator; average wager of HK$36,316 was the highest among the six operators.
- Sands China premium mass share21%Above 13% in June 2025; average wager rose to HK$14,110.
- Wynn premium mass share13%Below 35% in June 2025; average wager fell from HK$61,363 to HK$29,341.
- Average minimum bet for Macau mass baccaratHK$1,905Down 8% year over year in June 2026, the first time below HK$2,000 since April 2025.
- Cotai average minimum betHK$2,049Down 7% year over year.
- Peninsula average minimum betHK$1,498Down 8% year over year.
- Sector valuation~7.1x 1-year forward consensus EBITDANearly two standard deviations below the historical average of about 11.4x.
Impact & implications
The investment implication is that June data itself was weak and may weigh on short-term market sentiment and gaming stock performance; however, if Citi's explanation regarding World Cup disruption and the high base is correct, post-tournament demand recovery would make any short-term pullback a buying opportunity. Operator divergence is also notable: Galaxy and Sands China are seen as top picks, while MLCO improved significantly in this survey; Wynn and SJM showed relatively weaker survey performance and may require follow-up data to confirm whether this was merely a one-month fluctuation.
Risks
- The diversion of gaming attention by major sports events such as the World Cup may last longer than expected.
- If premium mass demand does not recover quickly after the tournament, Citi's call for a short-term rebound may prove wrong.
- The high base created by last year's Jacky Cheung concerts makes year-over-year data look weak, but also makes it harder to judge the true demand trend.
- The survey only covers casino areas Citi could access and may not fully represent the entire market.
- Observed high-value players are subject to month-to-month volatility, and a small number of high-stakes players may materially affect operator share.
- The decline in Macau mass baccarat minimum bets may reflect a temporary weakening in pricing power or customer quality.
What to watch
- Whether Macau GGR and premium mass wagering rebound quickly after the soccer tournament ends on 2026-07-19.
- Whether share price pullbacks in Galaxy and Sands China caused by short-term weak data create the position-building window recommended by Citi.
- Whether MLCO's high share and high average wager can be sustained in subsequent surveys rather than being driven by one month's high-value players.
- Whether Wynn's premium mass share and average wager recover.
- Whether Macau's average mass baccarat minimum bet returns above HK$2,000.
- Differences in minimum bets and table utilization between Cotai and the Peninsula.