Ninebot's growth resilience remains intact, with E2W demand and margin recovery as the core points to watch

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs' meeting takeaways on Ninebot Ltd published after the Asia Communacopia + Technology 2026 conference. The core message is that the company's revenue growth remains resilient, with E2W demand and margin recovery as the near-term focus, while robotic lawn mowers, electric scooters, and overseas electrification trends provide medium- to long-term growth drivers.

Core views

Goldman Sachs believes Ninebot is well positioned to grow into an emerging global leader in micromobility and robotic lawn mowers. Its domestic E2W business continues to gain share through R&D, smart features, channel expansion, and a dual-brand product portfolio; robotic lawn mowers benefit from rising penetration and offline channel advantages; in overseas markets, E-Bikes in developed markets and the electrification transition of gasoline-powered two-wheelers in emerging markets such as ASEAN provide revenue and profit opportunities.

Analysis framework

The report is mainly based on meetings with Ninebot management, focusing on revenue growth by business segment, regional expansion, the competitive landscape, gross margin pressure, and valuation methodology. The valuation applies a 16x exit P/E to 2028E EPS and discounts it back to 2027E using a 9.5% cost of equity, arriving at a 12-month target price of Rmb62.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsTarget Price Methodology

  Discounted exit P/E valuation

  Goldman Sachs applies a 16x exit P/E multiple to 2028E EPS and discounts it back to 2027E using a 9.5% cost of equity, deriving a 12-month target price of Rmb62.

• Factor AnalysisGS Factor Profile

  Growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite percentile

  This framework measures growth using forward sales, EBITDA, and EPS growth; financial returns using ROE, ROCE, and CROCI; valuation multiples using P/E, P/B, and EV/EBITDA; and combines growth, financial returns, and reverse multiple percentiles into a composite percentile.

• M&A ScenarioM&A Rank

  Potential acquisition probability score

  Goldman Sachs uses a 1-to-3 M&A ranking to assess the probability that a covered company becomes an acquisition target, where 1 represents high probability, 2 medium probability, and 3 low probability; only high or medium probability cases are typically incorporated into the target price.

• Data ToolQuantum

  Goldman Sachs proprietary financial database

  Quantum provides financial statement history, forecasts, and ratios, and can be used for deep single-company analysis or cross-company, cross-industry, and cross-market comparisons.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Ninebot Ltd (689009.SS)

  Research Coverage Target

  Strengths

  It has advantages in product R&D, brand, channels, and scale in micromobility and robotic lawn mowers; rising market share in European electric scooters, along with expansion in robotic lawn mowers and overseas E2W, provides growth potential.

  Weaknesses

  Within E2W, electric bicycles are still under short-term sales pressure due to the transition to new national standards and industry pressure; robotic lawn mowers require continued investment in brand, R&D, and warehousing.

  Comparison

  In the European electric scooter market, the report mentions Ninebot and Xiaomi as major participants; in robotic lawn mowers, Ninebot is viewed as relatively advantaged in product portfolio, brand, and offline channel presence.

  Risks

  Weakening macro consumption, slower-than-expected new product launches, intensifying domestic and overseas competition, potential tariffs or anti-dumping duties, and higher-than-expected raw material costs.

Key data

• Report Date2026-05-20The report header shows Equity Research 20 May 2026.
• 12-month Target PriceRmb62Based on a 16x 2028E exit P/E discounted by a 9.5% cost of equity.
• Reference PriceRmb40.47Ninebot Ltd's price is listed in the company-specific disclosure.
• Implied Upsideapproximately 53%Estimated based on the Rmb62 target price and the Rmb40.47 reference price.
• European Electric Scooter Shareapproximately 50%Management said market share in some European markets increased from about 40% last year to about 50% this year.
• Original Electric Scooter Growth Target10%-15%Management believes current strong 2C demand creates the possibility of exceeding the original target.
• Robotic Lawn Mower Sales Target2026 sales to doubleManagement remains constructive on achieving this growth target.
• Cost of Equity9.5%Used to discount the target valuation back to 2027E.
• Valuation Multiple16xThe exit P/E multiple applied to 2028E EPS.

Impact & implications

The report has a positive implication for Ninebot: in the short term, the investment focus is on whether new E2W products can drive sequential improvement in demand and gross margin; in the medium to long term, upside comes from rising penetration of robotic lawn mowers, expanding market share in European electric scooters, and the migration from gasoline-powered two-wheelers to electrified vehicles in Southeast Asia. However, raw material costs, competitive investment, and tariffs or anti-dumping measures may slow the pace of profit realization.

Risks

• A weakening macro environment leads to lower disposable income and consumer confidence.
• New product launches or expansion into new business categories are slower than expected.
• Competition intensifies in both domestic and overseas markets.
• Potential tariffs or anti-dumping duties may weaken profitability.
• Raw material costs such as metals and chips are higher than expected.
• Robotic lawn mower margins come under pressure due to competition and increased investment in branding, R&D, and warehousing.

What to watch

• The pace of sequential sales recovery after new E2W products launch from late May.
• The impact of the electric bicycle national standard transition on the full-year growth target.
• Changes in the contribution of electric motorcycles to E2W revenue.
• Execution progress toward the 2026 goal of doubling robotic lawn mower sales.
• Whether strong 2C demand for electric scooters in Europe continues and drives growth above the original 10%-15% target.
• Whether E2W gross margin recovers in the second half with new products and scale improvement.
• The launch of localized products in Southeast Asia next year and progress in building supply chains and distribution networks.
• The impact of potential EU anti-dumping duties and Southeast Asia capacity build-out on profits and the supply chain.